Current Polling

the makeout hobo · 09-18-08, 04:44 PM

With election season in full swing, everyone has been cherry-picking their favorite polls to show how their candidate is winning, regardless of the rest of polling out there. To try to present an objective outlook, I'm going to start this thread. I'll post the state of the race from pollster.com, realclearpolitics, electoral-vote.com, and fivethirtyeight.com. These four sites, especially taken together, should give a better view of the race than any one poll or even one site. I'll try to update this as often as I can, but I'm not on a computer every day, so if someone else wants to take over this, it'd be appreciated.

Pollster.com:
National: McCain: 44.9, Obama: 47.2
Electoral College: McCain: 208, Toss Up 128, Obama: 202
No Toss Ups: McCain: 270, Obama: 268

RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 45.2, Obama: 47.1
Electoral College: McCain: 216, Obama: 202
No Toss Ups: McCain: 265, Obama: 273

Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 274, Obama: 243, Tied: 21

fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 280.0, Obama, 250.0
Win Percentage: McCain: 54.9%, Obama: 45.1%
Popular Vote: McCain: 50.1, Obama: 48.6

Yayasmom · 09-19-08, 02:38 PM

Are you going to update this daily?

Navy Pride · 09-19-08, 02:44 PM

Only if Obama is leading..........

Zyphlin · 09-19-08, 03:30 PM

Navy that's a really pathetic comment for you to jump in a thread and say, when you yourself only post polls when your guy is winning or Obama is losing. Jumping in a thread to critize someone for something (which they haven't even done yet) that YOU YOURSELF do is just laughable.

I think this is a great thread and an excellent idea and I hope you keep on it Hobo. The first thread already shows that different polling sites seem to vary on who they have on top. While I think polls this far out are still not a great indication of what will happen come election time, it does give us insight into how things are going currently at least.

PeteEU · 09-19-08, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the makeout hobo

Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 274, Obama: 243, Tied: 21

Old number, it changed today. Now its McCain 265, Obama 252, Tied 21.

Colorado went from McCain to Obama in the latest poll there.

Navy Pride · 09-19-08, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zyphlin

Navy that's a really pathetic comment for you to jump in a thread and say, when you yourself only post polls when your guy is winning or Obama is losing. Jumping in a thread to critize someone for something (which they haven't even done yet) that YOU YOURSELF do is just laughable.

I think this is a great thread and an excellent idea and I hope you keep on it Hobo. The first thread already shows that different polling sites seem to vary on who they have on top. While I think polls this far out are still not a great indication of what will happen come election time, it does give us insight into how things are going currently at least.

I hope your right I am just going by the Hobo's history........

Light Bearer · 09-19-08, 10:55 PM

Check Rasmussen for the current poll numbers on which Party America identifies itself with; 50% Repub, 49% Dem. That is an 18 point loss in about two weeks for the Dems.

Navy Pride · 09-19-08, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Light Bearer

Check Rasmussen for the current poll numbers on which Party America identifies itself with; 50% Repub, 49% Dem. That is an 18 point loss in about two weeks for the Dems.

Its all good and going to get better............

Lerxst · 09-19-08, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navy Pride

Its all good and going to get better............

Yeah, keep on believing that. As your boy continues to slide underwater. Palin can't rescue him now, she turning into dead weight. Just like his earmark reform campaign.

Dems are the majority as far as voter turn out goes...by far. Watch as we strengthen our hold on Congress and take the White House.

Help is on the way America.

Light Bearer · 09-20-08, 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navy Pride

Its all good and going to get better............

Yup, half of America associates McCain as the Republican leader at this time, rather than Bush. All the Bush bashing has caused a cultural overload where the subject is raw on both sides of the spectrum. Now, that the Top Republican has been replaced in the public mindset, it is okay to be a Republican again. Personally, I am still with Bush to the bitter end and wear "W" socks daily as a silent form of support. However, I notice more of my Republican friends of the past that disassociated themselves over the last two years coming back into the fold. The addition of Palin to the ticket and the ever growing perception that an Obama Presidency means a definitive step towards Socialism in America has re-activated the GOP base, IMHO.