| US Elections Current Polling; Originally Posted by Kernel Sanders
Wow. Any idea how a 4 point popular vote lead translates into an 84% chance ... |
10-03-08, 07:30 PM
|
#41 (permalink)
| | Liberal elite guy
Join Date: Apr 2007 Last Online: Today 12:53 AM Location: In your banks...redistributing your wealths
Posts: 6,932
Thanks: 1,182
Thanked 1,557 Times in 1,008 Posts
Lean: Slightly Liberal Gender:  Awards: 
Current Mood:  | Re: Current Polling
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kernel Sanders  Wow. Any idea how a 4 point popular vote lead translates into an 84% chance of winning the election? | I believe it's more based on market predictions and the electoral outlook.
__________________
I was so right. And you? Well you were so wrong. You lost. Ha. Ha. | 
|  | |
10-03-08, 08:21 PM
|
#42 (permalink)
| | Advisor
Join Date: Sep 2008 Last Online: Yesterday 12:13 AM Location: Hawaii. No, wait. Kenya. No, Hawaii. Yeah. That.
Posts: 480
Thanks: 243
Thanked 131 Times in 85 Posts
Lean: Liberal Gender: 
Current Mood:  | Re: Current Polling
Quote:
Originally Posted by the makeout hobo With election season in full swing, everyone has been cherry-picking their favorite polls to show how their candidate is winning, regardless of the rest of polling out there. To try to present an objective outlook, I'm going to start this thread. I'll post the state of the race from pollster.com, realclearpolitics, electoral-vote.com, and fivethirtyeight.com. These four sites, especially taken together, should give a better view of the race than any one poll or even one site. I'll try to update this as often as I can, but I'm not on a computer every day, so if someone else wants to take over this, it'd be appreciated.
Pollster.com:
National: McCain: 44.9, Obama: 47.2
Electoral College: McCain: 208, Toss Up 128, Obama: 202
No Toss Ups: McCain: 270, Obama: 268
RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 45.2, Obama: 47.1
Electoral College: McCain: 216, Obama: 202
No Toss Ups: McCain: 265, Obama: 273
Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 274, Obama: 243, Tied: 21
fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 280.0, Obama, 250.0
Win Percentage: McCain: 54.9%, Obama: 45.1%
Popular Vote: McCain: 50.1, Obama: 48.6 | I just checked all the above links, and they all now show Obama favored to win. Some by an embarrassing amount. Some well into the 300's. (270 needed to win)
Go Obama! | 
| | |
10-06-08, 01:09 PM
|
#43 (permalink)
| | Professor Hobo
Join Date: Nov 2006 Last Online: Yesterday 10:28 PM Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 3,156
Thanks: 601
Thanked 606 Times in 406 Posts
Lean: Slightly Liberal Gender:
Current Mood:  |  Re: Current Polling
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kernel Sanders Wow. Any idea how a 4 point popular vote lead translates into an 84% chance of winning the election? | I believe that it's because as you get closer to election, leads become harder and harder to overturn, so a lead now is fairly significant. Also, Obama's numbers are better than 4 points, but the analyst thinks the numbers will tighten before now and election day. Make sense? I'm just guessing, I believe the site has an FAQ.
__________________
The Makeout Hobo is real, and does indeed travel around the country in his van and make out with ladies... If you meet the Makeout Hobo, it is customary to greet him with a shot of whiskey and a high five (if you are a dude) or passionate makeouts (if you are a lady).Vague is a man of honor | |
| | |
10-06-08, 01:19 PM
|
#44 (permalink)
| | Professor Hobo
Join Date: Nov 2006 Last Online: Yesterday 10:28 PM Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 3,156
Thanks: 601
Thanked 606 Times in 406 Posts
Lean: Slightly Liberal Gender:
Current Mood: | Re: Current Polling
Pollster.com
National: McCain: 42.3, Obama: 49.9
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Toss Up 115, Obama: 260
No Toss Ups: McCain: 200, Obama: 338,
RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 43.3, Obama: 49.3
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Obama: 264
No Toss Ups: McCain: 185, Obama: 353
Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 194, Obama: 329, tie: 15
fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 198.3, Obama: 339.7
Win Percentage: McCain: 12.6, Obama: 87.4
Popular Vote: McCain: 47.0, Obama: 51.5
Hobo's Analysis: So far, no real change, though there's some weird numbers coming out of Minnesota and Nevada. Stay Tuned! | |
| | |
10-06-08, 05:18 PM
|
#45 (permalink)
| | That European Guy
Mod team member
Join Date: Jan 2005 Last Online: Yesterday 08:15 AM Location: Belfast, Northern Ireland
Posts: 3,253
Thanks: 119
Thanked 387 Times in 257 Posts
Lean: Liberal Gender: : 
Current Mood:  | Re: Current Polling
Virginia SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10 North Carolina PPP (D) McCain 44, Obama 50 Obama +6 New Hampshire SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13 National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8 National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8 National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 47, McCain 41 Obama +6 Virginia Suffolk Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12 National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3 Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 49, McCain 38 Obama +11 National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 48, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 2 Obama +3 National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7 New Mexico Albuquerque Journal Obama 45, McCain 40 Obama +5 Georgia Research 2000 McCain 50, Obama 43 McCain +7 RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls
Looking very good for Obama  +12 and +10 for Obama in Virginia and +6 in NC wow!
__________________
They tried like hell. They called him an élitist, a radical, a socialist, a Marxist, a Muslim, an Arab, an appeaser, a danger to the republic, a threat to small children, a friend of terrorists, an enemy of Israel, a vote thief, a non-citizen, an anti-American, and a celebrity. ~ George Packer | |
| | | The Following User Says Thank You to GarzaUK For This Useful Post: | | |
10-06-08, 05:48 PM
|
#46 (permalink)
| | Professor Hobo
Join Date: Nov 2006 Last Online: Yesterday 10:28 PM Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 3,156
Thanks: 601
Thanked 606 Times in 406 Posts
Lean: Slightly Liberal Gender:
Current Mood: | Re: Current Polling
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarzaUK Virginia SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10 North Carolina PPP (D) McCain 44, Obama 50 Obama +6 New Hampshire SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13 National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8 National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8 National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 47, McCain 41 Obama +6 Virginia Suffolk Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12 National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3 Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 49, McCain 38 Obama +11 National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 48, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 2 Obama +3 National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7 New Mexico Albuquerque Journal Obama 45, McCain 40 Obama +5 Georgia Research 2000 McCain 50, Obama 43 McCain +7 RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls
Looking very good for Obama +12 and +10 for Obama in Virginia and +6 in NC wow! |
I love it when I win bets. | |
| | |
10-06-08, 05:52 PM
|
#47 (permalink)
| | Slayer of the DP Newsbot
Join Date: Aug 2005 Last Online: Today 12:52 AM Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 11,299
Thanks: 1,131
Thanked 2,816 Times in 1,495 Posts
Lean: Conservative Gender:
Current Mood: | Re: Current Polling
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarzaUK Virginia SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10 North Carolina PPP (D) McCain 44, Obama 50 Obama +6 New Hampshire SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13 National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8 National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8 National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 47, McCain 41 Obama +6 Virginia Suffolk Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12 National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3 Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 49, McCain 38 Obama +11 National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 48, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 2 Obama +3 National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7 New Mexico Albuquerque Journal Obama 45, McCain 40 Obama +5 Georgia Research 2000 McCain 50, Obama 43 McCain +7 RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls
Looking very good for Obama +12 and +10 for Obama in Virginia and +6 in NC wow! | Not sure about NC. That poll was a Democratic internal done by PPP. Still, it looks bad for McCain.
__________________
Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2012 | |
| | |
10-07-08, 06:30 PM
|
#48 (permalink)
| | Professor Hobo
Join Date: Nov 2006 Last Online: Yesterday 10:28 PM Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 3,156
Thanks: 601
Thanked 606 Times in 406 Posts
Lean: Slightly Liberal Gender:
Current Mood: | Re: Current Polling
Pollster.com
National: McCain: 43.6, Obama: 49.8
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Toss Up 55, Obama: 320
No Toss Ups: McCain: 185, Obama: 353,
RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 44.1, Obama: 49.6
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Obama: 264
No Toss Ups: McCain: 174, Obama: 364
Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 174, Obama: 349, tie: 15
fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 192.6, Obama: 345.4
Win Percentage: McCain: 10.8, Obama: 89.2
Popular Vote: McCain: 46.5, Obama: 51.9
Hobo's Analysis: 349? 345? 353? We're looking over the precipace at a landslide. If McCain doesn't give the show of his life tonight, coupled with Obama blowing up like the hindenberg, Obama wins. | |
| | |
10-09-08, 12:32 PM
|
#49 (permalink)
| | Professor Hobo
Join Date: Nov 2006 Last Online: Yesterday 10:28 PM Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 3,156
Thanks: 601
Thanked 606 Times in 406 Posts
Lean: Slightly Liberal Gender:
Current Mood: | Re: Current Polling
Pollster.com
National: McCain: 43.0, Obama: 49.3
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Toss Up 55, Obama: 320
No Toss Ups: McCain: 205, Obama: 333,
RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 43.5, Obama: 49.1
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Obama: 277
No Toss Ups: McCain: 174, Obama: 364
Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 174, Obama: 349, tie: 15
fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 191.2, Obama: 346.8
Win Percentage: McCain: 9.5, Obama: 90.5
Popular Vote: McCain: 46.5, Obama: 51.9
Hobo's Analysis: My thread's better. | |
| | |
10-09-08, 12:40 PM
|
#50 (permalink)
| | Professor
Join Date: Jul 2008 Last Online: Yesterday 10:28 PM Location: ~/
Posts: 1,773
Thanks: 1,171
Thanked 643 Times in 403 Posts
Gender: | Re: Current Polling
Quote:
Originally Posted by the makeout hobo Hobo's Analysis: My thread's better. | Spot on analysis as always  | |
| | | The Following User Says Thank You to Kernel Sanders For This Useful Post: | | | Thread Tools | | | | Display Modes |  Linear Mode | 
Posting Rules
| You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off | | | |
|
Main
Extras
