the makeout hobo

I'm going to update this every day I'm on dp. The only problem is that nowdays, I'm not near a computer every day. Like I said, if a more frequent poster wants to take over this thread, it'd be appreciated. You volunteering?

__________________
The Makeout Hobo is real, and does indeed travel around the country in his van and make out with ladies... If you meet the Makeout Hobo, it is customary to greet him with a shot of whiskey and a high five (if you are a dude) or passionate makeouts (if you are a lady).Vague is a man of honor

the makeout hobo

Pollster.com
National: McCain: 44.1, Obama: 47.7
Electoral College: McCain: 208, Toss Up 128, Obama: 202
No Toss Ups: McCain: 270, Obama: 268
(No Change in the electoral college, slight uptick in national support for Obama)


RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 45.3, Obama: 47.4
Electoral College: McCain: 216, Obama: 202
No Toss Ups: McCain: 265, Obama: 273
(No Change)

Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 265, Obama: 273
(Improvement for Obama, takes PA and CO back)

fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 234.9, 303.1
Win Percentage: McCain: 28.6, Obama: 71.5%
Popular Vote: McCain: 48.3. Obama: 50.1
(Decent improvement for Obama, mostly from state polling)



Hobo's Analysis: Obama's numbers are starting to slowly uptick, mostly in the states, though this is probably due to McCain's convention bounce wearing off and Sarah Palin losing her glitter more than anything else.

danarhea

That's almost the configuration I want to see. If it stands that way, and McCain takes New Hampshire, it will be tied at 269. What will that show? That neither got elected, and it had to go to the House. They both suck, and I can't believe that so many here are allowing themselves to be spoon fed on what Obama and McCain are shoveling.

__________________
Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2012

the makeout hobo

Another way to get that is with Obama winning the Kerry states, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada. I personally hope that it doesn't go to congress, because I think that could very well lead to an abolishment of the EC, which I'd hate to see.

the makeout hobo

Pollster.com
National: McCain: 44.4, Obama: 47.5
Electoral College: McCain: 169, Toss Up 157, Obama: 212
No Toss Ups: McCain: 269, Obama: 269
(Slight improvement for Obama in the EC, no significant change)


RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 44.63, Obama: 47.8
Electoral College: McCain: 174, Obama: 228
No Toss Ups: McCain: 273, Obama: 265
(Obama improves in the EC slightly)

Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 286, Obama: 252
(Improvement for Obama, thanks to VA)

fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 230.2.9, 307.8
Win Percentage: McCain: 27.6, Obama: 72.4%
Popular Vote: McCain: 47.9. Obama: 50.4
(no real change)



Hobo's Analysis: does anyone even read these?

Yayasmom

I read them and I thank you very much for posting them!

Lerxst

Where are you getting your EC count on RCP? With no toss ups it says Obama/Biden 273 McCain/Palin 265.

Also Pollster is showing Reps 174, Toss Up 135, Dems 229.
I can't find the no toss up analysis.

__________________
I was so right. And you? Well you were so wrong. You lost. Ha. Ha.

the makeout hobo

That's my mistake, I wrote it backwards

[/quote]
Firstly, I think the numbers changed since I checked. Secondly, I do the no toss up myself by looking at the state by state polling and assigning the states by who is winning, no matter how small. I use 270towin.com to get the exact numbers.

Lerxst

Gotcha.

the makeout hobo

Pollster.com
National: McCain: 44.2, Obama: 47.4
Electoral College: McCain: 174, Toss Up 135, Obama: 229
No Toss Ups: McCain: 265, Obama: 269, (NH is perfectly died)


RealClearPolitics.com
National: McCain: 43.7, Obama: 47.9
Electoral College: McCain: 163, Obama: 228
No Toss Ups: McCain: 252, Obama: 286


Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral College: McCain: 252, Obama: 286


fivethirtyeight.com
Electoral Vote: McCain: 228.0, 310.0
Win Percentage: McCain: 25.3, Obama: 74.7%
Popular Vote: McCain: 47.7. Obama: 50.6



Hobo's Analysis: Obama's still trending upwards, but expect tonight to change everything