Alex

It is very possible that this presidential election could result in an electoral college tie.

McCain's "safe", "likely", and "leans" add up to 247 electoral votes.
Obama's "safe", "likely", and "leans" add up to 264 electoral votes.

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The remainders are Colorado (9), Nevada (5), and Virginia (13). For the sake of this thread, we will give Obama Nevada, and give McCain Colorado and Virginia.

That gives both candidates 269 electoral votes.

So the Constitution has a clause for this very situation. In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives will vote to decide who will be the President.

But wait, there is a catch here, the Constitution only allows for each state to have 1 vote each, not the entire House of Representatives.

The way we know it right now, I believe McCain would win in this case. He has 26 states in "safe", "likely", and "leans," Obama has 22.

Also, in the event of an electoral tie, the VP is selected by a vote of each Senator, not by choice of the President.

So my question to all here is, who do you think will win the presidency in the event of an electoral tie? The vice presidency?

This thread is about what would happen in the event of a tie, not to who anyone believes any states will go to. This thread assumes that tie and makes predictions after it.

Kandahar

Obama would almost certainly win. Democrats have the majority of representatives in 27 states, and Republicans have the majority of representatives in 21 states. After the new Congress (which would be the one voting on this) takes office, the balance would most likely shift even more heavily toward the Democrats.

But it is HIGHLY unlikely that it would tie.

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Alex

Actually it would have to happen immediately:

"...the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President" [12th Amendment]

Even so, your prediction stands as is.

danarhea

I posted on this possibility about 2 months ago.

In case of an electoral tie, it goes to the House of Representatives. Each state has one vote, and the reps of each state vote as a group to see who their state's vote goes to.

At the present time, Obama would win. The Republicans would, of course, be demanding that the reps of certain red states that McCain won the popular vote in vote for McCain, but that won't happen, since some of those other so-called red states happen to be controlled by Democrats. In the end you will see more whining from the losers than at any other time since Democrats whined over Gore's loss. LOL.

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Kandahar

Yes, it would happen immediately after the electors cast their votes and were split 269-269. The new Congress is sworn in on January 3. The electors don't vote until January 9.

Alex

What is your prediction for vice in this situation? I say it will stay Biden.

Kandahar

The Senate would vote on it, and the Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate.

mvymvy

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Under the proposed interstate compact, there would never be a tie in the electoral vote because the compact always represents a bloc consisting of a majority of the electoral votes. Thus, an election for President would never be thrown into the House of Representatives (with each state casting one vote) and an election for Vice President would never be thrown into the Senate (with each Senator casting one vote).

Every vote in every state would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see National Popular Vote -- Electoral college reform by direct election of the President

susan

Alex

Wouldn't this require a Constitutional amendment?

Kandahar

No. The Constitution mandates that we have an electoral college, but it doesn't mandate HOW states are to choose their electors. All 50 states just happened to use some variation of a statewide popular vote to determine it, but there's nothing that says they MUST do it that way. It would be perfectly constitutional to, say, have the governor appoint all the electors however he wants, without allowing the people to vote for president at all.

In this case, these states have agreed that they'll assign their states' electoral votes to the winner of the NATIONWIDE popular vote...but that the pact won't take effect until enough states totaling 270 EVs have signed onto it.

In effect, this would remove the possibility of winning the popular vote but losing the election...without a constitutional amendment.