Polls through Convention time

Zyphlin · 09-04-08, 06:32 PM

Alright, taking a look at the Real Clear Politics daily tracking poll to see how the different Conventions, Palins pick, the attacks on her, and other things have been affecting the race the past few weeks.

8/22 - Obama +1.4 (Three days out from the convention)

8/23 - Obama +1.6

8/24 - Obama +1.7 (Day before convention, following a 4 day trend of slow growth after a big fall 5 days before)

8/25 - Obama +1.6 (first day of DNC, Michelle Obama)

8/26 - Obama +1.7 (second day of DNC, Hillary Clinton)

8/27 - Obama +1.8 (third day of DNC , Bill Clinton and Biden)

8/28 - Obama +2.9 (fourth day of DNC, Obama)

8/29 - Obama +3.9 (Sarah Palin announced)

8/30 - Obama +3.9 (talk of convention, first swing of attacks begin on Palin)

8/31 - Obama +3.4 (second swing of attacks begin on Palin)

9/1 - Obama +4.5 (RNC delayed, Gustav swings in)

9/2 - Obama +6.4 (RNC day 1, Thompson)

9/3 - Obama +5.8 (RNC Day 2, Guilliani and Palin)

9/4 - Obama +4.4 (RNC Day 3, McCain)

9/5 - Obama +2.6 (analysis of RNC)

9/6 - Obama +2.4 (both starting to get on the campaign trail)

9/7 - McCain +1.0

9/8 - McCain +2.9 (three days out of the conventions)

A thing to note, the statement for the day before isn't really likely to be taken into effect till the following day.

So what do we have here. Hard to say as there are undoubtedly many factors that go in but to try and make a guess.

The first two days of the DNC didn't do much, continuing the slow steady increase of the past 4 days before it. Bill and Biden's night hit much better, giving a 1.1 boost over the previous day. Obama's also hit well, bumping another full point. The announcement of Palin didn't see a noticeable immediate jump, understandable for a relatively unknown pick nationally. The next day, we see that bump from the announcement with a .4 drop from Obama. We then see the attacks (notice I'm not going to try to go partisan here and say "the smears". This is taking in both legitimate attacks and the smears in my mind) on her have an effect, boosting back up for Obama 1.1 points.

This continues going into the RNC convention, where a 1.9 boost hit and the biggest in a while. Is this the RNC having backfire for holding off for gustav, is this backlash as people remember the Bush administratiosn handling of Katrina, is this the culmination of all the attacks on Palin reaching the public, hard to say.

The first day of the RNC does a bit of damage control, bringing it down .6 for Obama. A bigger jump then the democrats first day, but also with a speaker that has his own followers to possibly bring in where as their first one didn't. We also see the biggest "convention" bump of the entire two conventions thus far as the republicans hit Obama for another negative 1.4 points after Guilliani and Palin's headlining act.

I'm going to continue to maybe come in and update this thread to see the day by day tracking of things and how little things may affect the polls. Ultimately, polls this far out and of this nature...constantly changing day by day...are rather useless for actually making a guess on whose going to be President but does give you something to make some educated guesses on how certain things happening are affeting peoples minds.

Zyphlin · 09-05-08, 12:09 AM

Kind of looking forward to see how this last day of the convention hits the polls tomorrow

Zyphlin · 09-05-08, 02:17 PM

First post updated as we've finished both conventions, with republicans gaining a 1.2 point bump after McCain's speech. So a few things concerning the conventions so far.

The democrats had a net 2.3 point "bump" from their convention, with the largest bump during the convention being a 1.1 point raise after the Bill Clinton and Joe Biden headline night.

The Republicans had a new 3.2 point "bump" from their convention, with the largest bump during the convention being a 1.4 point raise after the Rudy Guilliani and Sarah Palin headline night.

*EDIT*

It appears RCP has adjusted their numbers for 9/5 from 3.2 to 2.4. That now makes their "Bump" of 3.8 due to their convention, with the largest single day raise being a 1.8 point raise after McCain's convention speech.

Zyphlin · 09-07-08, 02:48 PM

Further updating with the two days after the convention. Again, the points gained here are not being considered for the purpose of this thread as a "Convention Bounce", just like the points beyond the day after the Democratic Convention wasn't considered it. The reason for that is that more factors than just the convention begin coming into play.

The past two days the main developments have been both campaigns getting onto the trails and beginning to tour, while the media continues to focus on Palin and a bit of hte convention.

With the current average as of Sunday the 7th's poll, the McCain is a full point closer to Obama than he was prior to the DNC convention.

Zyphlin · 09-07-08, 02:50 PM

Also, interesting note, they appear to have changed their numbers for 9/5, which was previously 3.2 and is now 2.6. This now makes the RNC's "Bump" to be 3.8 points, not 3.2, so will update the above post.

Panther · 09-07-08, 03:13 PM

If you're using RCP numbers, also note that the older Obama +6 poll is skewing the results to get the Obama +0.8.

Latest polls that include Palin (fully) and most of McCain's (2/3rds) speeches show:

Gallup: McCain +3
Rasmussen: TIE

Zyphlin · 09-07-08, 03:17 PM

It may be skewing it, but not worrying about that nor taking it into account. Looking at this from a daily thing, which means that numbers will routinely be going different directions based on polls updating. If we only look at the average, for the purpose of this poll, then there can't be a claim of bias of sometimes saying "But this poll isn't updated", etc.

So an older one +6 or not, doesn't matter. Sticking with just the number, as is, and looking at it as such.

Panther · 09-07-08, 03:23 PM

That's true, as long as the same criteria is used, it saves "interpreting" each day's results.

But as far as the time line it's important to note for both conventions and key events that with tracking polls, there's a 3 day delay to fully realize any impact in that day's poll. Obama could cause a 6 point bump from a single speech, but its impact will be spread over the next 3 days.

Panther · 09-07-08, 04:50 PM

Of course, we all know that the national popular vote doesn't mean a whole lot. The RCP electoral count still shows Obama in the lead 273-265 (selecting "No Toss Up States").

What's really interesting is that if things stayed the same, we're one toss-up state away (NH) from a 269-269 tie.

Zyphlin · 09-07-08, 11:36 PM

And, with the new polls being released the information for 9/7 has been further updated, from Obama +0.8 to McCain +1. I will edit and update accordingly.

McCain is now nearly 2 points higher than he was a day prior to the Democratic National Convention. It appears the republicans not only negated the democrats bounce but may have also managed to gain extra ground.

Once the numbers for tomorrow's averages come in I will look at the "3 day post convention" numbers for both the Democrats and Republicans and compare them to see where we're standing and how the match up went.