MC.no.spin

According to Rasmussen in their latest analysis August 22, 2008 (pre conventions), the state by state race breaks down as follows:

(270 DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN)

Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Breakdown

Safe Republican 62
Likely Republican 121
Leans Republican 64
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Total Delegates 247

Toss-Up 27

Leans Democrat 71
Likely Democrat 50
Safe Democrat 143
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Total Delegates 264

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

This latest polling of the states by Rasmussen shows McCain closer than ever before.

The key battleground states start with those in the toss-up category, of which there are three:

Colorado (9 delegates)
Virginia (13 delegates)
Nevada (5 delegates)

The other key battleground states are those with large amounts of delegates and are close in the polls, either leaning Democrat or Republican:

Florida (currently leaning Republican) (27 delegates)
Ohio (currently leaning Republican) (20 delegates)

Others could be considered, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri or Wisconsin, however these are more pronounced in leads according to Rasmussen and InTrade, so will be left out of this analysis for simplicity. If they narrow on InTrade and other polls, that will require further analysis. Currently, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look solidly Obama on Intrade, and Missouri looks solidly McCain. These are leaning Democrat and Republican, respectively, on Rasmussen as well.

Okay, so let's examine the real battleground states then:

Colorado
Virginia
Nevada
Florida
Ohio

Basically, McCain needs to win ALL 5 of these battleground states to win the election. Obama can lose Nevada, but must win 1 of the other 4 states to secure the 270 delegates needed to win the election.

Now that we've established which states are the most up for grabs and vital to victory, let's examine their trends on InTrade to see what pundits are thinking based on all information available:

IMPORTANT NOTE: THESE GRAPHS SHOW THE REPUBLICAN CHARTS, WHICH INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF McCAIN WINNING THAT STATE. IF THE NUMBER IS 51, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT MEANS IT IS CONSIDERED McCAIN HAS A 51 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINNING THAT STATE, ETC. IN THAT EXAMPLE, OBAMA WOULD HAVE ABOUT A 49 PERCENT CHANCE. ETC.

Here is Colorado:



Here is Virginia:



Here is Nevada:



Here is Florida:



Here is Ohio:



Now, look over these graphs for any trends. Do they all show a mutual tendency, that if continued, will result in a more clear likely victor?

Please discuss. I hope this has been of interest to view my research.

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The heart of human intelligence is pattern recognition ~ Ray Kurzweill

Indy

I'd say those are fair. Of the swing states I'd expect Obama to pick up by the end Colorado and Ohio would definitely be at the top of my list. I think the upward trend towards McCain is also interesting. This would be a fun experiment. Does anybody know when the negative campaign ads first started to emerge in bulk? It would be a fun lesson on what type of campaign strategy works best in swing states. If no major negative ad blitz occurred in (what was it, June?) then what other major events happened that might have caused the shift?

Please don't even bother to post something stupid like "People started to see that Obama was an empty suit" or something because it will not only derail this interesting thread but your post will also be completely ignored by anybody worth debating with.

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Affiant further sayeth not.

WI Crippler

Interesting analysis. I would say Wisconsin could be close(its been very tight the last 2 elections, after being a democrat stronghold for years). In the area I am in, I think McCain would win, but Obama most likely has great support amongst Madison and Milwaukee areas. But I am moving to South Carolina before the election, so I'll be in a firmly red state.

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Panther

Welcome...

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A jerk and a bad, anemic boob.
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WI Crippler

Thanks, I've lived there before. I keep going back and forth between Wisconsin and SC. This will be the last time though, I am tired of moving.

Alex

This is a trend we have seen before. Democrats come strong, Republicans bounce back. Kerry had a 6 point lead against Bush after the primaries, we all know how that turned out. I wonder what the poll trends were for the last election?

I also think that the undecideds are typically independents, who tend to side with Republicans. The closer we get to an election, the more independents will state their choice, and they will probably say "McCain."

MC.no.spin

I'll tell you what I think was involved in the shift. It actually occurs in July, not June. By looking at what changed in early July, the cat falls out of the bag. McCain's camp re-vamped their personnel in July, adding experts like Steve Schmidt (considered one of the very best in campaign strategy) to their team. Schmidt then re-organized things so that ALL messages came through him before being released. Before then, the messages were often muddled. This brought about a more concise message (experience, lower taxes, lower gas prices) that coupled with effective attack ads on Obama, created a trend upward for McCain.

Video:

Indy

I can see that. A change in campaign leadership could really shift the tide if done right. Apparently he's done a good job.