Has Obama picked Evan Bayh?

The InTrade markets seem to be going crazy for Evan Bayh in the last 24 hours. His odds of being picked as VP have skyrocketed from 25% to 45%, while shares of Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sibelius have plummeted in value.

Bayh is still only at 45% (i.e. a better chance that Obama picks someone else), but often times these huge price lurches at critical moments mean that someone investing on InTrade knows something the rest of us don't.

Could Obama be set to announce Bayh as his running mate in the next couple days?

Kandahar said:

The InTrade markets seem to be going crazy for Evan Bayh in the last 24 hours. His odds of being picked as VP have skyrocketed from 25% to 45%, while shares of Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sibelius have plummeted in value.

Bayh is still only at 45% (i.e. a better chance that Obama picks someone else), but often times these huge price lurches at critical moments mean that someone investing on InTrade knows something the rest of us don't.

Could Obama be set to announce Bayh as his running mate in the next couple days?

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It's possible.

I'm torn on this. Bayh seems like a strong Democrat with widespread support in Indiana but wouldn't Obama benefit more from having a former military on his side? Just saying. Bayh seems like a great choice for VP. Young and a rising star in Washington. But I still think somebody who was in the military would be better.

Hatuey said:

I'm torn on this. Bayh seems like a strong Democrat with widespread support in Indiana but wouldn't Obama benefit more from having a former military on his side? Just saying. Bayh seems like a great choice for VP. Young and a rising star in Washington. But I still think somebody who was in the military would be better.

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I agree. Do you have anyone in mind? I was hoping for Wesley Clark, but with that gaffe he made about McCain, I think that's not going to happen. What about Senator Reed?

aps said:

I agree. Do you have anyone in mind? I was hoping for Wesley Clark, but with that gaffe he made about McCain, I think that's not going to happen. What about Senator Reed?

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That gaffe was, perhaps, indicative of what Ralph Peters was referring to yesterday on C-Span's In Depth interview. You can go to their Video Library and watch the whole three hours online. Peters is a really smart guy and in this comment, which he gives reluctantly, but candidly, he suggests that Wesley Clark is a very courageous guy and well educated and has served our nation well and he has no personal problems with him, but he thinks Clark has bad judgment and instincts.



In Depth with Ralph Peters 280144-1 : C-SPAN Video Library | Created by Cable. Offered as a Public Service.

I transcribed this excerpt from my own recording. These remarks were made about 22 minutes from the conclusion of the interview.

Ralph Peters: I worked for Wes, gave him a good report card. I have no personal problems with him. Wes Clark has been personally courageous and he's proven it again and again. He has terrible instincts, entirely bad judgment, married to extreme ambition. And I wish Wes Clark well. But I wish him far away from any position of power.

Interviewer: Why?

Ralph Peters: Based upon personal experiences with the guy. He's...I've seen him make decisions that I did not think were in the best interests of our country or just despite poor judgment...(overtalking between interviewer and subject)

Wes Clark served our country very, very well, to a point. In the intelligence world, or at the highest levels of statecraft, education matters, but instincts, good instincts, the instinct to do the right thing, to recognize the right thing and do it, is very important. And I just think Wes Clark has terrible instincts...(RECORDING SKIPPED)...race for the airfield in Kosovo a British General had to tell him, "I'm not starting World War Three for you. There have been other examples as well. Here again, Wes Clark has served our country well. But we all have different talents and different capacities. I don't want Wes Clark making decisions for our country.

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The name is too... non American.. People are already having trouble with Obama and Barak.. and now a Bayh?.. Frankly someone with a more "normal" name would do wonders. I can see a field day for the 527s and the McCain camp... playing the fear factor on names alone.

bhkad said:

That gaffe was, perhaps, indicative of what Ralph Peters was referring to yesterday on C-Span's In Depth interview. You can go to their Video Library and watch the whole three hours online. Peters is a really smart guy and in this comment, which he gives reluctantly, but candidly, he suggests that Wesley Clark is a very courageous guy and well educated and has served our nation well and he has no personal problems with him, but he thinks Clark has bad judgment and instincts.

In Depth with Ralph Peters 280144-1 : C-SPAN Video Library | Created by Cable. Offered as a Public Service.

I transcribed this excerpt from my own recording. These remarks were made about 22 minutes from the conclusion of the interview.

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I liked the idea of him because he was/is a huge fan of Hillary's, and I wanted Obama to pick someone who would get the Hillary voters to vote for Obama. I may have to check out the video. Thanks.

Hatuey said:

I'm torn on this. Bayh seems like a strong Democrat with widespread support in Indiana but wouldn't Obama benefit more from having a former military on his side? Just saying. Bayh seems like a great choice for VP. Young and a rising star in Washington. But I still think somebody who was in the military would be better.

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You Democrats (and Libs?) seem to think that the military is a commodity or an ingredient you just add to whichever political race you are speaking of as a way of satisfying those voters who have served our country in uniform.

Sure, it makes a difference. But the thing you who have never served do not recognize is that there are good soldiers and bad soldiers. Good military leaders and not so good military leaders. Great Military leaders who have great judgment and great soldiers who would make just awful politicians.

That's why Murtha is in Congress, he's got terrible judgment but he probably served well. Duke Cunningham was a legend. AN HONEST TO GOD LEGENDARY NAVAL AVIATOR F-4 PHANTOM FIGHTER JOCK JET ACE IN VIET NAM. Some say his encounter with multiple MIG fighters in one engagement over Viet Nam and the techniques he and his RIO used were the basis for the fictional exploits of Maverick & Goose in the film, Top Gun. Cunningham later became a Congressman but eventually made some bad choices while in office which led to his pleading guilty to tax evasion, conspiracy to commit bribery, mail fraud, and wire fraud charges. Now he sits in prison.

That's why the Democratic party fell in love with Murtha, John Kerry and Chuck Hagel. They just dredged up or dusted off anyone with a distinguished military background to lead their ideologically inferior assaults only to find that it takes more than just "a former military" to make a difference.

Military service is a plus. But that, in and of itself, gets you nothing more than maybe a free cup of coffee at the VA Hospital.

PeteEU said:

The name is too... non American.. People are already having trouble with Obama and Barak.. and now a Bayh?.. Frankly someone with a more "normal" name would do wonders. I can see a field day for the 527s and the McCain camp... playing the fear factor on names alone.

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There is a long familiarity amongst those familiar with American politics of the Bayh name.

His dad, Birch Evans Bayh II, was a Senator, too and he and his wife were in the plane crash which badly injured Ted Kennedy in the 1960's.

BTW, Evan Bayh is actually "Birch Evans Bayh III"

Birch Bayh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

bhkad said:

There is a long familiarity amongst those familiar with American politics of the Bayh name.

His dad, Birch Evans Bayh II, was a Senator, too and he and his wife were in the plane crash which badly injured Ted Kennedy in the 1960's.

BTW, Evan Bayh is actually "Birch Evans Bayh III"

Birch Bayh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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That might be, but the name is still "foreign" sounding... it aint Edwards, Jones, Bush, or McCain. And like it or not your people (aka the Republicans) have made Obamas name and even religion an issue in these elections, and I have no doubt the seeds of doubt about this guys race and religion will be quickly spread through the internet if he is chosen.

Plus I suspect most people outside this guys state have zero clue who he is regardless of his legacy family. People have a hard time picking Al Gore out of a picture and he was the VP for 8 years, and you expect them to know a senator not from their state?

Hell first time I heard his name, I thought.. oh 2 black men running together, how different. But he aint black is he now.

PeteEU said:

That might be, but the name is still "foreign" sounding... it aint Edwards, Jones, Bush, or McCain. And like it or not your people (aka the Republicans) have made Obamas name and even religion an issue in these elections, and I have no doubt the seeds of doubt about this guys race and religion will be quickly spread through the internet if he is chosen.

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Evan Bayh is pretty much a bland white guy. Stirring up race and religion isn't going to work.

Not every American is named Edwards or Jones. In fact, the vast majority of us have German last names.

PeteEU said:

Plus I suspect most people outside this guys state have zero clue who he is regardless of his legacy family.

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Probably true. Is that a bad thing?

PeteEU said:

People have a hard time picking Al Gore out of a picture and he was the VP for 8 years, and you expect them to know a senator not from their state?

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Anyone who isn't a total moron can pick Al Gore out of a picture.

PeteEU said:

Hell first time I heard his name, I thought.. oh 2 black men running together, how different. But he aint black is he now.

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The first time I heard his name, I didn't give it a second thought and simply wondered who he was. "Bayh" hardly sounds like a weird foreign name to me.

PeteEU said:

That might be, but the name is still "foreign" sounding... it aint Edwards, Jones, Bush, or McCain. And like it or not your people (aka the Republicans) have made Obamas name and even religion an issue in these elections, and I have no doubt the seeds of doubt about this guys race and religion will be quickly spread through the internet if he is chosen.

Plus I suspect most people outside this guys state have zero clue who he is regardless of his legacy family. People have a hard time picking Al Gore out of a picture and he was the VP for 8 years, and you expect them to know a senator not from their state?

Hell first time I heard his name, I thought.. oh 2 black men running together, how different. But he aint black is he now.

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IMO, this says more about your ignorance than anything else.

TOJ said:

IMO, this says more about your ignorance than anything else.

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Good to see you're still the angry man that you are, TOJ. :2wave:

That might be, but the name is still "foreign" sounding... it aint Edwards, Jones, Bush, or McCain.

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Bah. McCain's not WASP, either. It's Irish.
How many non-WASP presidents have we had? Oh yeah: one. Kennedy.
I wouldn't exactly rank it up there with Edwards, Bush, and Jones.

Either society's evolved beyond the need for WASP leadership, or they haven't.
If they haven't, Obama's not going to win no matter who he chooses to run with.