Rasmussen Poll shows statistical tie for President........ - Page 3

Indy · 07-13-08, 11:27 AM

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Rasmussen Markets data shows there are no clear favorites for the Veepstakes in either political party. However, the markets currently give Obama a 69.6 % chance of winning the White House.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Here you go Navy, I'm sure you were going to post this little piece of info as well correct? Don't worry, I've done it for you.

Hatuey · 07-16-08, 02:28 AM

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45%.

Oopsies.

galenrox · 07-16-08, 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatuey

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Oopsies.

You know a statistical tie refers to a poll which is within the margin of error, right?

oopsies!

Hatuey · 07-16-08, 03:07 AM

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Originally Posted by galenrox

You know a statistical tie refers to a poll which is within the margin of error, right?

oopsies!

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Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

I'll take 95% on a win any day.

galenrox · 07-16-08, 03:13 AM

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Originally Posted by Hatuey

I'll take 95% on a win any day.

Those numbers mean that they're 95% confident that those numbers are within 2% of being correct. I have no idea what you're getting at.

Indy · 07-16-08, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by galenrox

Those numbers mean that they're 95% confident that those numbers are within 2% of being correct. I have no idea what you're getting at.

I'm with you on this one. +/- 2 means that they can be within 4 points of each other and still be tied. Still, you have to admit that it is unlikely that both candidate's numbers are on the extreme fringe of the sampling error. It is possible though.

rsixing · 07-16-08, 08:45 AM

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

galenrox · 07-16-08, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy

I'm with you on this one. +/- 2 means that they can be within 4 points of each other and still be tied. Still, you have to admit that it is unlikely that both candidate's numbers are on the extreme fringe of the sampling error. It is possible though.

Well yeah, obviously there's a distinction between a statistical tie and an actual tie, and if the election was held today we could be pretty confident that Obama would win both electorally and the popular vote. Luckily the election won't be held today

Indy · 07-16-08, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by galenrox

Luckily the election won't be held today

You know... Its comments like these that make me think that you just might not be an Obama supporter. Don't know what it is about them though, haven't quite put my finger on it yet...

galenrox · 07-16-08, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy

You know... Its comments like these that make me think that you just might not be an Obama supporter. Don't know what it is about them though, haven't quite put my finger on it yet...

I don't know what would make you think that!