the makeout hobo

Lets look at the election from 1968-2004

George W. Bush (2004)
George W. Bush (2000)
Bill Clinton (1996)
Bill Clinton (1992)
George Bush (1988)
Ronald Reagan (1984)
Ronald Reagan (1980)
Jimmy Carter (1976)
Richard Nixon (1972)
Richard Nixon (1968)

What do you notice? Complete Republican domination with the exception of Bill Clinton, who was a moderate southerner (opponent's home turf) and benefited from a strong third party bid, and Jimmy Carter who was a moderate southerner who benefited from Watergate. Lets look further back.


Lyndon Johnson(1964)
John Kennedy(1960)
Dwight Eisenhower(1956)
Dwight Eisenhower(1952)
Harry Truman(1948)
Franklin Roosevelt(1944)
Franklin Roosevelt(1940)
Franklin Roosevelt(1936)
Franklin Roosevelt(1932)

What do you notice? Complete Democratic domination with the exception of Eisenhower, who was a moderate and who had saved the free world. Lets look further back.


Herbert Hoover(1928)
Calvin Coolidge(1924)
Warren Harding(1920)
Woodrow Wilson(1916)
Woodrow Wilson(1912)
Howard Taft(1908)
Theodore Roosevelt(1904)
William McKinley(1900)
William McKinley(1896)

What do you notice? Complete Republican domination with the exception of Wilson, who won due to a strong third party bid, and then due to the fear of WWI.

Grover Cleveland (1892)
Benjamin Harrison (1888)
Grover Cleveland (1884)
James Garfield (1880)
Rutheford Hayes (1876)
Ulysses S. Grant (1872)
Ulysses S. Grant (1868)
Abraham Lincoln (1864)
Abraham Lincoln (1860)

I'd say "what do you notice", but you should get the point by now. Complete Republican domination with the exception of Grover Cleveland. I don't know much about Cleveland, but I know that his elections were very close and I know he was very pro-business and moderate for the time. Lets keep on going, just for kicks.

James Buchanan(1856)
Franklin Pierce(1852)
Zachary Tyler(1848)
James K. Polk(1844)
William Harrison(1840)
Martin Van Buren(1836)
Andrew Jackson(1832)
Andrew Jackson(1828)

This time, we see almost complete Democratic domination, with the whigs having only limited success, only winning when nominating very popular war heroes. Lets finish this off.

John Quincy Adams(1824)
James Monroe(1820)
James Monroe(1816)
James Madison(1812)
James Madison(1808)
Thomas Jefferson(1804)
Thomas Jefferson(1800)
John Adams(1796)
George Washington(1792)
George Washington(1789)

The Democratic-Republicans had almost complete domination of the presidency for the entire era.

I drew the line at what are considered realigning elections. If you notice, they happen every 8-10 elections, and the party in charge of the cycle dominates the issues and discourse, even when they're not in office. You will also notice that we're on course for a realigning election this year. Whoever wins this year will likely realign the map like Jackson, Lincoln, McKinley, Roosevelt, and Nixon did, if history is to be a guide. Who do you think will realign the map?

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The Makeout Hobo is real, and does indeed travel around the country in his van and make out with ladies... If you meet the Makeout Hobo, it is customary to greet him with a shot of whiskey and a high five (if you are a dude) or passionate makeouts (if you are a lady).Vague is a man of honor

niftydrifty

a "nifty" trick? I'm flattered.

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"I admit it. The liberal media were never that powerful, and the whole thing was often used as an excuse by conservatives for conservative failures." - Bill Kristol

DeeJayH

very interesting, ty

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These days it seems that the deadliest place on earth for an American to be is inside the womb. - Joshua P. Allem

RightinNYC

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People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

Skip

I can't see this trend continuing as well as it has. With the American electorate split so evenly and expecting far more than the government can deliver, the party in charge will fall out of grace much sooner than they would have in one of these "natural" cycles. I'd say four consecutive terms for any one party is close to impossible nowadays.

I still believe in the "pendulum" effect and I do think it started to swing to the left in 2006 and will continue to do so this year. I just think its chain is shorter than in years past.

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"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed." President Bush, under "Mission Accomplished" banner, May 1, 2003.
Since then, more than 3,970 American soldiers have died in Iraq.

Indy

What has changed in the last 200 years that would all of a sudden make the chain shorter?

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Affiant further sayeth not.

the makeout hobo

For you, anytime

By the way, NYC, thanks for that book. I'll have to read it when I get the chance. I'm mostly basing my work off of Strauss and Howe's Generations and Winograd and Hais' Millennial Makeover

the makeout hobo

I dunno. Today's youth generation, the Millennials, are the biggest generation in American history. They are also overwhelmingly liberal, and will probably be a much more active generation than Gen X. And seeing as studies have shown that people usually deepen their political beliefs as they get older, I think we can see them bolstering the Democratic Party, as things stand now, for a while to come.

Slainte

The Political Scene: The Fall of Conservatism: Reporting & Essays: The New Yorker

May have been posted before, but a good essay predicting a similar thing.

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We all live under the same sky, but we don't all have the same horizon