The most opportune time to stop Trump was early on. I felt back in the summer that the RNC leadership should have blocked Trump from seeking the GOP nomination when he began making his inflammatory statements. The threat at the time was that he would run as an independent. However, at that time, he had yet to build his following, so the threat was much less than it is today.
Today, he has built a loyal and passionate following sufficiently large to take advantage of the fragmented field of candidates. That he lacks the requisite leadership skills, policy experience, policy knowledge, and decency one would expect from a President is irrelevant to his followers. In politics, Trump is essentially Bernie Madoff writ large (not in terms of illegal activity, but in terms of seducing the electorate with unrealistic promises that lack substantive backing). His followers believe his every word about 'making America great,' even as he has no governance experience, much less policy substance to even attempt to deliver on his sweeping promises.
People fall for scams when they accept at face value promises that reasonable scrutiny would reveal are 'too good to be true.' That's what happened with Madoff's "returns" to his investors. That's what's happening under the slogan "Make America great again."
Now, the Party faces a real problem should Trump win the nomination. A loss of the White House in 2016 would only be a low cost compared to the Party's losing the capacity to appeal to a broader slice of the electorate possibly for multiple election cycles. Of course, that problem is largely of its own doing, on account of the RNC leadership's having chosen to try to accommodate Trump early on when it should have pushed him from the race. Political cowardice has a high cost.
Right now, Trump can likely still be beaten, even as the task is more difficult. The RNC leadership should push the remaining bottom two candidates to drop out. It is a de facto three person race, but the bottom two candidates remain capable of sucking up a combined 10%-20% of the vote depending on where the primaries are held. Under such circumstances, Trump can continue to pocket his 30%-40% of the vote and vacuum up delegates moving him closer to clinching the nomination. If Trump gains well over a majority of delegates, a brokered convention will be little more than a convenient fiction that has no chance of success.
IMO, Bush made the right decision to exit the race, personally painful as it was for him. It suggests he sees the larger picture and is willing to act responsibly as a leader to at least mitigate the risk of a very bad outcome. I can't say the same about the latter two candidates. They have put their own personal ambitions ahead of averting what could be a truly bad outcome for the Party and, if by some small chance Trump prevails nationally, the country. Those are not acts of leadership. They are strong arguments that both of them are limited in the leadership area.
I've always thought that about Carson who has no relevant experience whatsoever and whose debate performances have revealed a candidate vastly out-of-touch with policy reality and sometimes barely aware of debate stage developments. He's not much different from the ill-fated Herman Cain of the 2012 cycle. His bizarre departure from the campaign trail after Iowa provided a further example that he should not be in a position with authority. Given the stakes involved, I don't blame the Cruz campaign for speculating that Carson's bizarre decision might have hinted that he would be suspending his campaign, as that's what typically happens when candidates take "time outs." Kasich has surprised me somewhat, as he had stated repeatedly that he would know whether he can be competitive. It's now clear, he cannot be competitive and NH's success was built on the unique circumstances of his devoting enormous time to that state, an approach that cannot be replicated. He's a solid candidate and governor. But his inability to recognize reality has revealed a candidate who is incapable of making tough decisions, as exiting campaigns is a tough decision.
In the meantime, Trump is poised for a Nevada victory and, barring a further culling of the field, success on Super Tuesday, as well.
