• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Good Advice for Republicans in 2016

December 1734-June 1735.

January-May, 1927

Mississippi River Flood History 1543-Present

Um...you're looking at outdated information. The Mississippi's never risen to this extent in recorded history. Ever.

Record flooding along some tributaries after torrential post-Christmas weekend rain has sent the Mississippi River to levels not seen since the Great Flood of 1993, and that excess water will continue to flow downstream triggering flooding in the Lower Mississippi Valley into mid-late January.

In the past week or so, nearly a dozen locations have seen water levels on rivers or creeks rise to new record crests, including on parts of the Mississippi River and the Meramec River. You can find a full recap of the records set near the bottom of this article.

At Cape Girardeau, Missouri, about 115 miles south-southeast of St. Louis, the Mississippi River on Friday rose above the previous record flood crest there from the Great Flood of 1993, with a broad crest exceeding that of the August 8, 1993 crest. Water levels are now receding there and will continue to do so very slowly the next couple of days.


What you need to remember, Ocean, is that the 1927 flood (which my grandmother lived through and told me about several times) was during a time when even though there were already levies, flood control was not nearly as comprehensive as it is now...and in the earlier time you mention - in the 1700's - there were no levies at all, much less actual flood control. That's why they refer to much of the Mississippi River basin as a "flood plain".

But now, the river's higher than it's ever been...and what's worse is that the records are being set up in Missouri, which means that as the billions of gallons of water slowly drains south, whatever additional rainfall (or snowfall) occurs in that entire section of the nation will be added. This is why Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana are getting very, very nervous indeed.

Communities along the Mississippi River in Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana should be prepared for flood issues over the coming weeks as the copious amount of water travels farther south.
Water levels will continue to rise in Memphis, Tennessee, and Greenville, Mississippi, as well as Baton Rouge, Louisiana, through the second week of January. Levees will be forced to hold back the rising water, but in some cases may fail, as has been seen in the past week. Residents in these areas will want to be prepared for potentially historic flooding.
Flooding on the middle portion of the Mississippi River and some of its tributaries reached levels not seen during the winter months since records began during the middle 1800s.
 
Please feel free to show other instances where the Mississippi has flooded to this extent in the middle of the winter.

Didn't think you could.

Easily done. Please see especially January 1927, worst ever.

[h=3]Mississippi River Flood History 1543-Present[/h]www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/...


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration


Oct 12, 2011 - High Flows and Flood History on the Lower Mississippi River .... A large flood crest moved down the Mississippi from a combination of snow ...
 
Um...you're looking at outdated information. The Mississippi's never risen to this extent in recorded history. Ever.

Record flooding along some tributaries after torrential post-Christmas weekend rain has sent the Mississippi River to levels not seen since the Great Flood of 1993, and that excess water will continue to flow downstream triggering flooding in the Lower Mississippi Valley into mid-late January.

In the past week or so, nearly a dozen locations have seen water levels on rivers or creeks rise to new record crests, including on parts of the Mississippi River and the Meramec River. You can find a full recap of the records set near the bottom of this article.

At Cape Girardeau, Missouri, about 115 miles south-southeast of St. Louis, the Mississippi River on Friday rose above the previous record flood crest there from the Great Flood of 1993, with a broad crest exceeding that of the August 8, 1993 crest. Water levels are now receding there and will continue to do so very slowly the next couple of days.


What you need to remember, Ocean, is that the 1927 flood (which my grandmother lived through and told me about several times) was during a time when even though there were already levies, flood control was not nearly as comprehensive as it is now...and in the earlier time you mention - in the 1700's - there were no levies at all, much less actual flood control. That's why they refer to much of the Mississippi River basin as a "flood plain".

But now, the river's higher than it's ever been...and what's worse is that the records are being set up in Missouri, which means that as the billions of gallons of water slowly drains south, whatever additional rainfall (or snowfall) occurs in that entire section of the nation will be added. This is why Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana are getting very, very nervous indeed.

Communities along the Mississippi River in Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana should be prepared for flood issues over the coming weeks as the copious amount of water travels farther south.
Water levels will continue to rise in Memphis, Tennessee, and Greenville, Mississippi, as well as Baton Rouge, Louisiana, through the second week of January. Levees will be forced to hold back the rising water, but in some cases may fail, as has been seen in the past week. Residents in these areas will want to be prepared for potentially historic flooding.
Flooding on the middle portion of the Mississippi River and some of its tributaries reached levels not seen during the winter months since records began during the middle 1800s.

Ever? What a ludicrous claim.

Glacial Lakes and Rivers form the Mississippi River Valley
 
Easily done. Please see especially January 1927, worst ever.

[h=3]Mississippi River Flood History 1543-Present[/h]www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/...


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration


Oct 12, 2011 - High Flows and Flood History on the Lower Mississippi River .... A large flood crest moved down the Mississippi from a combination of snow ...

And you need to look up the most current information - the 1927 levels will be exceeded. My family lived through that particular flood, btw.

Anyway, while we DID have levies in 1927, the flood control system at that time was not nearly as comprehensive as it is now. Furthermore, the record-setting flooding seen right now is still up in Missouri, and hasn't moved south yet...but the southern states are already estimating that the levels will rise above the 1927 flood.
 
Yet another perfectly good thread has gone to yet another inane discussion of global warming. There must be some sort of law, like Godwin's law, saying that sooner or later every discussion gets derailed to global warming.

Sometimes I wonder whether more time and effort gets spent on attempting to deny global warming than on actual research on the phenomenon itself.
 
What part of "recorded history" isn't sinking in?

What part of "EVER" do you not understand? Do sediment layers not provide evidence of floor record? Does a blip in geologic time hold any relevance?
 
Didja see the caveat, "RECORDED history"? There are no written records of measurements taken at the time of the glacial lakes' formation, are there? I referred to recorded history - meaning, written measurements taken by human beings present at the time.

Please be more careful about what you're reading.

Yes, I notice the caveat. The claim is ludicrous. A blip in recorded geologic history is meaningless. The Mississippi Flood plain contains vast amounts of geologic evidence of flooding far beyond the scale of what has been recorded.

Please be more careful with your hyperbole.
 
Here are some good ideas for Republicans in 2016.

Right Turn


GOP resolutions for 2016


1. Never, ever base presidential debate criteria on national polling. (It’s meaningless early on and only entices celebrity candidates.)
2. Do not imagine that the entire party is made up of the most vocal, extreme elements in talk radio. There is no sign — not in respected polling or election results — that the party is entirely, or even primarily, made up of nativists and “very conservative” voters. You might think so if you are elected from Texas or Alabama, but thinking that is a microcosm of the country leads to disastrous results.
3. The country has accepted gay marriage, so move on. There are not sufficient states for a constitutional amendment nor is any president going to be able to stack the court with justices willing to overturn the gay marriage ruling. (The court won’t even find Obamacare unconstitutional.) Preaching defiance of the court is crazy talk and simply tells voters that Republicans are out of touch.
4. If House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is not “conservative,” then “conservatives” make up a tiny sliver of America. Stop voting off the island elected Republicans with a lifetime record of conservative votes and positions simply because in tone they do not sound unhinged.
5. Do not give money to groups that promote gridlock, stir conspiracy theories, attack Republicans for good-faith compromises and back candidates (see the 2014 Senate primaries) who lose consistently.
6. Stop arguing that protectionism and opposition to immigration are “conservative” stances. They are nativist stances — based on fear and resentment of outsiders — that have nothing to do with conservative free-market, limited-government principles.
7. Give up the fixation on the mainstream media. Yes, there is coverage that is tilted, invariably in the liberal direction. Yes, conservatives are held to a different standard. It should be called out. But so what? It’s not an excuse for failure, and voters don’t want to hear a lot of whining about how the deck is stacked. Moreover, Republicans benefit from being tested in interviews and debates by those with whom they disagree.
8. You do not need to deny climate change to object to harebrained schemes that don’t get to the issue. If you read anything over the holidays, take a look at “Conservatives and Climate Change,” by Peter Wehner and Jim Manzi.
9. Cheer up. Republicans have House and Senate majorities, 31 governorships and control of more state legislatures than at any time since 1928.
10. Pyrrhic victories are for losers. Find winnable fights and win them. Otherwise, all that Republicans are doing is spreading resentment, paranoia and a minority mentality. That may satisfy those in No. 2 and No. 5 above, but it does nothing to further the conservative agenda.


What a bunch of schlock. The same Rubin who predicted a Bush/Clinton race.
 
Considering that I dont see bulletpoints "listen to the voters" and "keep your word" I think we know the value of these observations. Ir reads like yet more sniffling from the elite about how they are not appreciated enough. I used to like Rubin some but she seems really off lately.

So true. Exactly why Trump is running away with this race.

How dare he actually listen to the working guy instead of following some power point presentation designed by talking heads?
 
And you need to look up the most current information - the 1927 levels will be exceeded. My family lived through that particular flood, btw.

Anyway, while we DID have levies in 1927, the flood control system at that time was not nearly as comprehensive as it is now. Furthermore, the record-setting flooding seen right now is still up in Missouri, and hasn't moved south yet...but the southern states are already estimating that the levels will rise above the 1927 flood.

Your comparison is not relevant. Your claim was there had never before been comparable winter flooding. That was shown to be wrong. If your family lived through the 1927 flood why did that slip from your mind?
 
Weather today is no more or less extreme than at any other time. Conflation of weather with climate is silly.


Co2 levels are noticeably higher and that effects the climate.


15_14_co2_left.gif


Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet: Carbon Dioxide
 
Whether CO2 level affects climate at all, or a little, or a lot is in fact the point at issue.


That debate is over...but what to do about it, is not.
 
That debate is over...but what to do about it, is not.

[h=3]The Cloud Mystery - Svensmark, Shaviv & Veizer - YouTube[/h]▶ 52:53

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3jXCo3BVuA
Jul 6, 2015 - Uploaded by 1000frolly
What really drives climate changes on Earth? Professors Svensmark, Shaviv & Veitzer answer, using ...​


[h=3]Cosmic Rays and Climate | ScienceBits[/h]www.sciencebits.com/CosmicRaysClimate




It was shown by the author (Shaviv 2002, 2003), that these intrinsic variation in the cosmic ray .... From left to right: Nigel Marsh, Jan Veizer, Henrik Svensmark.



[h=3][/h]
 
[h=3]The Cloud Mystery - Svensmark, Shaviv & Veizer - YouTube[/h]▶ 52:53

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3jXCo3BVuA
Jul 6, 2015 - Uploaded by 1000frolly
What really drives climate changes on Earth? Professors Svensmark, Shaviv & Veitzer answer, using ...​


[h=3]Cosmic Rays and Climate | ScienceBits[/h]www.sciencebits.com/CosmicRaysClimate




It was shown by the author (Shaviv 2002, 2003), that these intrinsic variation in the cosmic ray .... From left to right: Nigel Marsh, Jan Veizer, Henrik Svensmark.



[h=3][/h]


So?

....
 
Yeah, #2. Then someone may want to tell every single GOP candidate for prez to stop kissing the vocal far right and talk radio show hosts asses. I see NO sign of any of the GOP candidates moving to the middle. They all believe what the far right and 90% of the AM talking heads are saying, that the GOP needs to move further right to win in 2016.

Someone of importance in the GOP on the national stage needs to stand up, and scream over and over that the GOP needs to move more to the middle. They need to tell the Hanity's and Limbaugh's to STFU. They need stare down the fanatics in the party and tell them over and over gay marriage is here to stay. And that the GOP needs to talk to and compromise with the Dems.

But none of this will happen because the hate, and the scaremongering is making Trump a front runner and has helped the GOP on the state level.

If one feels something strongly one has a tendency to overestimate the number of people who feel the same way. One has a tendency to underestimate the difficulty of converting others to one's persuasion.

Americans are becoming more liberal on social issues.

Americans Continue to Shift Left on Key Moral Issues

For years polls have indicated majority support for higher taxes on the well to do, and no cuts to middle class entitlements.

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=poll+++taxes+++rich+++"Social+Security"+++Medicare

Disappointments with President Obama's economic performance, may result in Republican victories in November. Nevertheless, the Republicans will not be able to keep winning by following Ronald Reagan's play book.
 
Weather today is no more or less extreme than at any other time. Conflation of weather with climate is silly.

I keep seeing this red herring. He described cause and effect, not conflation. Increased frequency of extreme weather is a predicted consequence of global warming.
 
I keep seeing this red herring. He described cause and effect, not conflation. Increased frequency of extreme weather is a predicted consequence of global warming.

That's just it: there is no increased frequency of extreme weather.

Global Hurricane Frequency – 1978 to Present
Ryan N. Maue PhD – PoliClimate.com – Click the pic to view at source

Number of Atlantic Hurricanes

Ryan N. Maue PhD – WeatherStreet.com – Click the pic to view at source

Number of Named Atlantic Storms
Ryan N. Maue PhD – WeatherStreet.com – Click the pic to view at source
 
Last edited:
That's just it: there is no increased frequency of extreme weather.

Global Hurricane Frequency – 1978 to Present
Ryan N. Maue PhD – PoliClimate.com – Click the pic to view at source

Number of Atlantic Hurricanes

Ryan N. Maue PhD – WeatherStreet.com – Click the pic to view at source

Number of Named Atlantic Storms
Ryan N. Maue PhD – WeatherStreet.com – Click the pic to view at source

Ok, but the Atlantic Ocean is not the globe. My understanding about Atlantic hurricanes is that frequency has gone down while intensity has gone up. In northern England this winter, to slice off an even smaller sample, stone bridges that stood for 300 years washed away. I don't have any in front of me to post or quote from but there are articles you can google that set out evidence of increasing extreme weather, including droughts, over the past fifteen years or so.
 
Ok, but the Atlantic Ocean is not the globe. My understanding about Atlantic hurricanes is that frequency has gone down while intensity has gone up. In northern England this winter, to slice off an even smaller sample, stone bridges that stood for 300 years washed away. I don't have any in front of me to post or quote from but there are articles you can google that set out evidence of increasing extreme weather, including droughts, over the past fifteen years or so.

There is no evidence of increasing extreme weather.

Global Precipitation 1901 – 2009
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) – Click the pic to view at source
 
Ok, but the Atlantic Ocean is not the globe. My understanding about Atlantic hurricanes is that frequency has gone down while intensity has gone up. In northern England this winter, to slice off an even smaller sample, stone bridges that stood for 300 years washed away. I don't have any in front of me to post or quote from but there are articles you can google that set out evidence of increasing extreme weather, including droughts, over the past fifteen years or so.

Australian Region Tropical Cyclones 1970–2011 (Severe tropical cyclones are those which show a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) – Click the pic to view at source
 
Back
Top Bottom