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Ben Carson Edges Ahead Nationally in Times/CBS News Poll

Cardinal

Cardinal

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Ben Carson The Neurosurgeon(tm) has edged ahead of Trump for top spot. Would the larger Republican establishment find it encouraging to have a candidate that runs on a primarily social conservative platform?

Ben Carson has taken a narrow lead nationally in the Republican presidential campaign, dislodging Donald J. Trump from the top spot for the first time in months, according to a New York Times/CBS News survey released on Tuesday.


Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the choice of 26 percent of Republican primary voters, the poll found, while Mr. Trump now wins support from 22 percent, although the difference lies within the margin of sampling error.


The survey is the first time that Mr. Trump has not led all candidates since The Times and CBS News began measuring presidential preferences at the end of July.


No other candidate comes close to Mr. Carson and Mr. Trump. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida received 8 percent while former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, are each the choice of 7 percent of Republican primary voters.
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http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/?_r=0
 
DaveFagan said:
Is this like that SHAM poll in Iowa?
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The poll in question is a scientific poll. It is subject to some degree of error, but it is not an unscientific online survey that provides little meaningful insight.
 
This entire election cycle has me completely flummoxed.
 
Cardinal said:
Ben Carson The Neurosurgeon(tm) has edged ahead of Trump for top spot. Would the larger Republican establishment find it encouraging to have a candidate that runs on a primarily social conservative platform?



http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/?_r=0
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I would imagine that the republican establishment wants an establishment candidate, and so wouldn't exactly relish either of these two.

IMO, much of the rise in Carson's appeal is based upon personality. He is the soft spoken, respectful alternative to Trump's brash and reckless conceit. Both are appealing to a certain anti-establishment attitude, but in different ways.
 
DaveFagan said:
Is this like that SHAM poll in Iowa?
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What difference does it make? Iowa is a sham. The Iowa caucuses are about as relevant to the nomination (and the election) as a pre-season game.

Can the Republicans shoot straight? Neither of the current poll leaders have really articulated a single policy or plan. "Trust me, Its gonna be great" isn't a plan. Once these yahoos show the cards in the hand the bluff that is the Republican hopeful for president will be exposed and the game will be over. The question then will be whether the damage will be irreparable.

Ben Carson is just a place holder for John Kaisch, who will ultimately win this thing. Donald Trump has done such an effective job
ripping up much of the Republican platform and many of this key candidates from inside the party. given the Trump has already run off Walker (who had a legitimate shot) and has effectively neutered Bush III.

If Donald Trump is not already the Republicans worst nightmare, he soon will be.
 
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Gardener said:
I would imagine that the republican establishment wants an establishment candidate, and so wouldn't exactly relish either of these two.

IMO, much of the rise in Carson's appeal is based upon personality. He is the soft spoken, respectful alternative to Trump's brash and reckless conceit. Both are appealing to a certain anti-establishment attitude, but in different ways.
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IMO the "anti-establishment" crowd is looking to the most destructive and asinine ways to achieve their goal. Rather than find someone who obviously doesn't fit in Washington in any meaningful way and apparently just wants to burn it to the ground, how about look to the ways the establishment has ignored infrastructure and the middle class and reverse that trend? Of course, to them, creating effective over ineffective policy are both in the same "establishment" bucket to them.
 
Cardinal said:
I don't see what would lead you to suggest that.
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This would lead me to suggest that.

https://themarshallreport.wordpress...ll-a-sham-paid-for-by-club-for-growth-action/

THE MARSHALL REPORT
Exposing The Establishment Daily
Trump 2nd place Iowa Poll a SHAM — paid for by Club for Growth Action!October 24, 2015October 25, 2015 Dianne Marshall
.....

The poll that placed Trump in second place in Iowa was a fake— paid for by the Club for Growth Action and differs from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll over the weekend that has Trump in first place in Iowa by five points.
Bragging in a press release, the Club For Growth raved about spending a million dollars in ads exposing Trump and used a skewed poll of 574 people to show their ads were affective. Undoubtedly to make their GOP customers happy and to insure their money was well spent. Well, in this case let the fools pay the fools, for the REAL CLEAR POLITICS IOWA AVERAGE ALSO STILL HAS TRUMP ON TOP OF THE GOP FIELD.

Trump was approached just before he launched his campaign by Club for Growth to run trash ads against the GOP for a million dollars. Trump turned them down and has since filed a Cease and Desist Demand letter for their defamation attempts at his character during his political campaign.
 
Cardinal said:
Ben Carson The Neurosurgeon(tm) has edged ahead of Trump for top spot. Would the larger Republican establishment find it encouraging to have a candidate that runs on a primarily social conservative platform?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/?_r=0
Click to expand...

Carson is appealing to a whole lot of us who are so weary of the politics of personal destruction that marks most political strategy these days and he refuses to participate in. And he has the right idea about the role of government, so those of us who don't embrace all of his most conservative views don't fear him because he does--we trust him not to impose upon the people that which was not given to the federal government to impose.

The phenomenon is interesting. While it is okay to bash Bush or Trump or any of the other front runners as the standard M.O. in campaigns, it seems unseemly to trash talk the very nice, very peaceful, intellectual Carson and that presents a problem for the other candidates.

However, looking deeper into the polls, roughly 10% of Trump's base say that have absolutely decided on him as their candidate--such certainty of course is always suspect this far out from the vote--but only a little over 5% of Carson's base say they have absolutely decided on their candidate. I'm pretty sure Bush, Kasich, Fiorina at least are still in it and things will tighten considerably as the primary season really cranks up.
 
Cardinal said:
I don't see what would lead you to suggest that.
Click to expand...

This would lead me to suggest that.

https://themarshallreport.wordpress...ll-a-sham-paid-for-by-club-for-growth-action/

THE MARSHALL REPORT
Exposing The Establishment Daily
Trump 2nd place Iowa Poll a SHAM — paid for by Club for Growth Action!October 24, 2015October 25, 2015 Dianne Marshall
.....

The poll that placed Trump in second place in Iowa was a fake— paid for by the Club for Growth Action and differs from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll over the weekend that has Trump in first place in Iowa by five points.
Bragging in a press release, the Club For Growth raved about spending a million dollars in ads exposing Trump and used a skewed poll of 574 people to show their ads were affective. Undoubtedly to make their GOP customers happy and to insure their money was well spent. Well, in this case let the fools pay the fools, for the REAL CLEAR POLITICS IOWA AVERAGE ALSO STILL HAS TRUMP ON TOP OF THE GOP FIELD.

Trump was approached just before he launched his campaign by Club for Growth to run trash ads against the GOP for a million dollars. Trump turned them down and has since filed a Cease and Desist Demand letter for their defamation attempts at his character during his political campaign.
 
Cardinal said:
IMO the "anti-establishment" crowd is looking to the most destructive and asinine ways to achieve their goal. Rather than find someone who obviously doesn't fit in Washington in any meaningful way and apparently just wants to burn it to the ground, how about look to the ways the establishment has ignored infrastructure and the middle class and reverse that trend? Of course, to them, creating effective over ineffective policy are both in the same "establishment" bucket to them.
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I am trying to avoid going too much full-on Spengler on you, but perhaps we are just in a transition phase.

People are searching for their great Caesar to solve issues that have little to do with actual public policy.
 
Someone on Twitter summed it up neatly.
""Doctor who thinks healthcare is worse than slavery tops Billionaire who wishes he could bang his hot daughter."
 
To me the problem with Trump and Carson is no matter how "appealing" their "outsider" persona is there is no way in hell congress works with either one of them.
 
donsutherland1 said:
The poll in question is a scientific poll. It is subject to some degree of error, but it is not an unscientific online survey that provides little meaningful insight.
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It might be a scientific poll, however according to the NYT piece the margin of error is +- 6%. Which is not very good at all. Also these polls ask "If the election were held today who would you vote for?" Which is impossible to answer. These polls reflect only who they want to win now. Not who they will want to win on election day.
 
azgreg said:
To me the problem with Trump and Carson is no matter how "appealing" their "outsider" persona is there is no way in hell congress works with either one of them.
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which of the candidates on either side could expect to have success with this congress?
 
donsutherland1 said:
The poll in question is a scientific poll. It is subject to some degree of error, but it is not an unscientific online survey that provides little meaningful insight.
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It is, for a change. But is sheds little light on the actual battle. Some of the support for Carson may not turn out:



The new poll found that Mr. Trump’s supporters are firmer in their support than Mr. Carson’s. A majority of Trump supporters, 55 percent, said their minds were made up. But 80 percent of Carson backers said it was too early to say for sure that they would eventually support him.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted Oct. 21-25 on cellphones and landlines with 575 Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus six percentage points for each candidate. Additional findings from the full poll will be published Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.
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'

The poll was also conducted two to five days after the Canadian election where a handsome, left leaning young son of a former prime minister was elected, giving a boost to the left. I know some of you will insist Canada's election had no influence, but you might want to look deeper. The entire democratic party will get a boost of that.

To Canadians, Ben Carson as president is almost as scary as Trump. No matter who wins I think a trade war is inevitable, both parties have become protectionist
 
azgreg said:
To me the problem with Trump and Carson is no matter how "appealing" their "outsider" persona is there is no way in hell congress works with either one of them.
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It does if it wants to pass any legislation.
 
I wonder if Iowans - or 95% nationally - know about [Pre-Candidate] Carson's view on Healthcare,: "his specialty".
If he thinks Obamacare is "worse than slavery"

Wiki.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Carson#Healthcare
[......]
During the National Prayer Breakfast, Carson said about the ACA: "Here's my solution. When a person is born, give him a birth certificate, an electronic medical record and a health savings account [HSA]".[75]

Criticism of health insurance companies
In a 2009 interview, Carson said that he found the "concept of For-profits for the insurance companies" absurd.
He continued, "The first thing we need to do is get rid of for-profit insurance companies.
We have a lack of policies and we Need to make the Government responsible for catastrophic health care.
We have to make the insurance companies responsible only for routine health care."[76]
In 2014, Carson wrote in support of expanded use of health savings accounts, plus a system "Similar to Medicare and Medicaid" to address "complex pre-existing or acquired maladies".[78]
More generally, his position is that, "we need to remove health care from the political arena and recognize that any government proposals affecting the health of all citizens should be free market-based and should be so appealing that it would not be necessary to force citizens into the program."[79]

End-of-life care
In 1992, Carson wrote that aging and technological advancement will eventually lead to many people surviving their 100th birthdays.He Questioned the merits of Prolonging life, citing the fact that "up to half of the medical expenses incurred in the average American's life are incurred during the last six months of life". He discussed the "dignity of dying in comfort, at home, with an attendant if necessary". Carson also stated: "Decisions on who should be treated and who should not be treated would clearly require some National guidelines...If a patient insisted on having everything done, consideration of more aggressive treatment should be given."[80] In January 2015, Carson stated that his views have evolved since 1992...​
 
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Fearandloathing said:
It is, for a change. But is sheds little light on the actual battle. Some of the support for Carson may not turn out:'

The poll was also conducted two to five days after the Canadian election where a handsome, left leaning young son of a former prime minister was elected, giving a boost to the left. I know some of you will insist Canada's election had no influence, but you might want to look deeper. The entire democratic party will get a boost of that.

To Canadians, Ben Carson as president is almost as scary as Trump. No matter who wins I think a trade war is inevitable, both parties have become protectionist
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There is some debate as to whether polling quality is declining in an era of mobile phones, the composition of the electorate is more difficult to predict, etc. The Canadian polls right before the election significantly understated the Liberals' strength. In the UK, the polls prior to the election significantly understated the Conservatives' strength.

I share Canadians' concern about trade. I strongly oppose any attempts to roll back the current bilateral trade agreements with Canada. Both the U.S. and Canada have gained from the agreements. Carson's, Cruz's, and Trump's hostility to trade is inconsistent with the traditional conservative position on trade and it is incompatible with mainstream economic thought. Of course, they are not the only candidates who have adopted unfriendly positions on the issue of trade.
 
mbig said:
I wonder if Iowans - or 95% nationally - know about [Pre-Candidate] Carson's view on Healthcare,: "his specialty".
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Carson may be an expert a given area of medicine (neurosurgery), but that does not necessarily make him an expert in the area of health policy, which involves issues beyond medicine i.e., coverage, financing, etc.
 
When i first heard of Ben Carson vying for the GOP nomination, i said to myself -"cool, a neurosurgeon, exactly the right person for the brain-damaged Washington", and then I stumbled across several of his crazy quotes of the following ilk:

Ben Carson said:
“A lot of people who go into prison straight, and when they come out they’re
gay.”
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Ben Carson said:
You know Obamacare is really I think the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery
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, i.e Obamacare is worst than 9/11
Ben Carson said:
the US government is acting like Nazi Germany
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Ben Carson said:
the Holocaust could have been prevented if persecuted Europeans owned more guns
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o_0!

On the surface, To many people this dude might appear as the complete opposite of Trump: he exudes calm, composure, total control! That's the bulk of his appeal!
Yet if you listen to him, he rattles off even crazier BS than Trump, and with a straight face at that just to make the news, with the tone of a doctor prescribing painkillers!
And the scarier is that given the polls herds of zombie nutjobs would consider voting for him! :screwy

To my mind, he is a consummate wacko that must be kept far, far away from the White House!
 
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