Poll: Ben Carson, Donald Trump run neck-and-neck

Dittohead not! · Sep 27, 2015

MickeyW said:
He's a good and decent guy and good and decent people will vote for him. I get it.

Spoken like a true centrist. Bush, like Hillary and Biden and Sanders....are more of the same. People are sick and tired of Establishment .............on both sides!
It's time for a fresh approach...away from career politicians.

Makes perfect sense. Those are the guys that voters like me, are sick and tired of!

Precisely!

A fresh approach, that's the ticket. Let's stand up and say that Mexico is sending us its rapists and drug dealers. Let's propose that Mexico build a wall on its northern border. Let's just say outright that women are pissy when they're on their periods. Hey, just let it all hang out. We don't need no danged filters on what we say, just whatever pops into our heads, say it.

That's Trump's fresh approach.

MickeyW · Sep 27, 2015

Fearandloathing said:
One could say that's been the case for several election cycles...

I was around when one had to chose between Carter and Reagan.

Man, that was a no brainer. Carter is a nice guy, but was a ****ty President...mostly because of liberalism. Ronnie forever!

EdwinWillers said:
For as long as I can remember, choices among Democrat contenders has been even worse - and consistently so.

Were it based only on that sad fact, I could never bring myself to align myself with the Democrat Party. Fortunately, there are plenty other reasons not to consider that an option anyway.

Fully agree.

Dittohead not! said:
And the Reagan of memory, not the real one of course, has become the hero of American conservatives. I predict that Obama will be the same for liberals in the decades to come. Few will agree with that today, of course, but wait a few years and see. If I'm right, remember you heard it here first. If I'm wrong, you can forget you heard it at all.

The Regan of memory, and in actuality, was one of the best Presidents of the modern era. People often forget that he had an uphill battle, all the way, with a Demo controlled Congress.

ksu_aviator said:
I've got to admit that Carly Fiorina is starting to convince me. She's a good mix of Trump's business experience, Cruz's convictions and Carson's politeness. I still think Cruz aligns the most with my wants, but he still hasn't been able to come up with a campaign theme that catches on.

I will never voter for her unless she of course got the nomination. I don't see that happening.
She ruined HP and I know that from several friends of mine who quit in protest, because of her goofy leadership!

MickeyW · Sep 27, 2015

Redress said:
Being ahead in the polls in September the year before the election is like being ahead the first 5 minutes of the Tour de France. Meaningless and no one is going to remember.

I'll remember you said that and remind you of it, when one of those two win the WH. The same was said about Reagan.

ModerateGOP said:
Mickey do you think the summer of trump is over? He has dropped 7 points nationally in ten days!!!!

Reason: He's been mostly silent. Why?

Two things come to mind.
I hear he has been working on a big business deal and got sidetracked.

Or.....the Shadow Govt. has turned the screws on him. That being the power brokers, who actually run our government and most of the world governments. For those neophytes, they are the top 5 banking families of the world, who actually have all the money and all the power to turn the screws on people. The top of that list is the Rothschild Group.

ModerateGOP said:
I think Carson will drop next week after the Muslim stuff, but I could be wrong. The religious base is circling him. Instead of Santorum or Huckabee which is quite interesting.

It is curious, but Ben Carson is right....no Muslim should be our President. And that fact that two of them are elected to Congress, is not good at all.

Fearandloathing said:
And neither would be accurate.

What has surprised me most in this life is how easily distorted is history. Who should be the hero of conservatives would be Nixon if not for the fact he got caught doing what everyone else had been doing for years.

Then again, depending on who you talk to, Pierre Trudeau is either the hero of liberalism in Canada or the traitor who ruined the country, none of which would have even been implied at the time.

True on Nixon. He had the best foreign policy ever and was a shrewd operator. He reminded me of a used car salesman that you couldn't trust, but then..............................so does obama and/or Hillary....and they are farrrrr worse than Nixon could ever be!

Instead of trying to destroy this country like obama...Nixon actually loved and believed in this country.

MickeyW · Sep 27, 2015

Dittohead not! said:
A fresh approach, that's the ticket. Let's stand up and say that Mexico is sending us its rapists and drug dealers. Let's propose that Mexico build a wall on its northern border. Let's just say outright that women are pissy when they're on their periods. Hey, just let it all hang out. We don't need no danged filters on what we say, just whatever pops into our heads, say it.

That's Trump's fresh approach.

And he's 100% Correct!!!!!!!

Pating missy on the ass and stroking Mexico's dong, is all fine and dandy for PC. Is that your take on the way it should be?

Redress · Sep 27, 2015

MickeyW said:
I'll remember you said that and remind you of it, when one of those two win the WH. The same was said about Reagan.

Really? People where talking about Reagan's poll numbers in September 1979?

Dittohead not! · Sep 27, 2015

MickeyW said:
Man, that was a no brainer. Carter is a nice guy, but was a ****ty President...mostly because of liberalism. Ronnie forever!

Fully agree.

The Regan of memory, and in actuality, was one of the best Presidents of the modern era. People often forget that he had an uphill battle, all the way, with a Demo controlled Congress.

I will never voter for her unless she of course got the nomination. I don't see that happening.
She ruined HP and I know that from several friends of mine who quit in protest, because of her goofy leadership!

The Reagan of legend, the demigod who single handedly defeated the Soviet Union, had an uphill battle. The Obama of future legend also had an uphill battle against an opposing party with the stated and singular goal of making him a one term president.

Of course, the real Reagan and the real Obama are both quite human.

Dittohead not! · Sep 27, 2015

MickeyW said:
And he's 100% Correct!!!!!!!

Pating missy on the ass and stroking Mexico's dong, is all fine and dandy for PC. Is that your take on the way it should be?

Patting Missy on the ass sounds exactly like something Trump would do.

Chomsky · Sep 27, 2015

ModerateGOP said:
I think Carson will drop next week after the Muslim stuff, but I could be wrong. The religious base is circling him. Instead of Santorum or Huckabee which is quite interesting.

Drop?

How do you drop when the latest recent credible poll shows you w/i the margin of error for the lead?

Sherman123 · Sep 27, 2015

MickeyW said:
Businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are running neck-and-neck in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lose ground to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll has found.
Poll: Ben Carson, Donald Trump run neck-and-neck - CNNPolitics.com

:thumbs:

I don't understand how Carson continues to pull in support. He's a fundamentalist with no political or policy experience whatsoever and has been completely embarrassing at both of his debate appearances, particularly the last one. The only thing I can imagine is that people who are so emotionally invested in having an 'outsider' are drawn to him and the fact that he is quite truthfully a nice guy. Plus he's black and a neurosurgeon, he's the perfect 'token' for some Republicans who would snap at the chance to have any anti-Obama figure, probably the same people who gushed over Herman Cain.

The only candidates I'd consider of this field are Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Fiorina, and I'm still hesitant on the second one and the last one. If it isn't any of them I'm voting democrat.

NeverTrump · Sep 28, 2015

Chomsky said:
Drop?

How do you drop when the latest recent credible poll shows you w/i the margin of error for the lead?

Look at all the overall averages.

Chomsky · Sep 28, 2015

ModerateGOP said:
Look at all the overall averages.

Yes, but how do you drop when the latest legit poll shows you tied for the lead and trending higher, while your tied opponent is trending lower.

This makes no sense, at this time.

Even prior polling shows Mr. Carson solidly in 2nd & trending higher.

I don't see the numbers supporting a withdrawal decision at all, and in fact they seem to indicate just the opposite.

NeverTrump · Sep 28, 2015

Chomsky said:
Yes, but how do you drop when the latest legit poll shows you tied for the lead and trending higher, while your tied opponent is trending lower.

This makes no sense, at this time.

Even prior polling shows Mr. Carson solidly in 2nd & trending higher.

I don't see the numbers supporting a withdrawal decision at all, and in fact they seem to indicate just the opposite.

Who said anything about withdrawing? I just said he is dropping especially when looking at overall averages. That is also the same criteria used in the media to determine who gets in the debates. Making fun of someone is funny and cute the first few times, but after awhile it gets stale. Trump is stale to me right now.

Chomsky · Sep 28, 2015

ModerateGOP said:
I think Carson will drop next week after the Muslim stuff, but I could be wrong. The religious base is circling him. Instead of Santorum or Huckabee which is quite interesting.

Chomsky said:
Drop?

How do you drop when the latest recent credible poll shows you w/i the margin of error for the lead?

ModerateGOP said:
Look at all the overall averages.

Chomsky said:
Yes, but how do you drop when the latest legit poll shows you tied for the lead and trending higher, while your tied opponent is trending lower.

This makes no sense, at this time.

Even prior polling shows Mr. Carson solidly in 2nd & trending higher.

I don't see the numbers supporting a withdrawal decision at all, and in fact they seem to indicate just the opposite.

ModerateGOP said:
Who said anything about withdrawing? I just said he is dropping especially when looking at overall averages. That is also the same criteria used in the media to determine who gets in the debates. Making fun of someone is funny and cute the first few times, but after awhile it gets stale. Trump is stale to me right now.

*bolding for emphasis

--

Ah, I think I see the confusion, ModerateGOP:

In your initial post, 'drop' meant 'drop in polls'.

I took it to mean, 'drop from the race'.

A simple misunderstanding.

My apologies.

Sorry for any confusion or wasted time.

Chomsky · Sep 28, 2015

Chomsky said:
Wow, how about that?

I can understand Mr. Trump's falling, but still can't quite figure-out Dr. Carson's ascendance, TBH.

MickeyW said:
He's a good and decent guy and good and decent people will vote for him. I get it

Well, my next-door neighbor is a good & decent guy too, but I wouldn't vote for him for President.

But I do understand what your saying - however, he just doesn't have a Presidential 'pull' for me (beyond being a nice guy).

Edit: As a counterexample - while I see the negatives of a candidate like Mr. Trump, I definitely see the positives and his 'draw'. He can be very inspiring, at times.

MickeyW · Sep 28, 2015

Dittohead not! said:
The Reagan of legend, the demigod who single handedly defeated the Soviet Union, had an uphill battle. The Obama of future legend also had an uphill battle against an opposing party with the stated and singular goal of making him a one term president.

Of course, the real Reagan and the real Obama are both quite human.

Reagan was so human, most everyone could identify with him. Even his enemies. Unlike obama...................Ronald Reagan unified the country .....instead of causing massive division. obama has done nothing but muck up race relations and has caused hate and discontent between millions.

Love of America was the Prime Directive of RR. The PD for obama, seems to be hate and division.

MickeyW · Sep 28, 2015

Chomsky said:
Well, my next-door neighbor is a good & decent guy too, but I wouldn't vote for him for President.

But I do understand what your saying - however, he just doesn't have a Presidential 'pull' for me (beyond being a nice guy).

Edit: As a counterexample - while I see the negatives of a candidate like Mr. Trump, I definitely see the positives and his 'draw'. He can be very inspiring, at times.

Not only inspiring....but correct in what he says. He tells it straight. Those use to the Clintons and obama...have been conditioned and comfortable with a pack of lies and deceit!

Dittohead not! · Sep 28, 2015

MickeyW said:
Reagan was so human, most everyone could identify with him. Even his enemies. Unlike obama...................Ronald Reagan unified the country .....instead of causing massive division. obama has done nothing but muck up race relations and has caused hate and discontent between millions.

Love of America was the Prime Directive of RR. The PD for obama, seems to be hate and division.

You speak, of course, of the demigod Reagan of legend, not the real Reagan.

MickeyW · Sep 28, 2015

Dittohead not! said:
You speak, of course, of the demigod Reagan of legend, not the real Reagan.

He was no demigod, simply an honest and patriotic American. The real Reagan was a very good man.....and a Great President.
The demigod was that criminal many times over......Ted Kennedy.

I had the pleasure of meeting him in Sacramento while he was Gov.
One of the highlights of my life.

Dittohead not! · Sep 28, 2015

MickeyW said:
He was no demigod, simply an honest and patriotic American. The real Reagan was a very good man.....and a Great President.
The demigod was that criminal many times over......Ted Kennedy.

I had the pleasure of meeting him in Sacramento while he was Gov.
One of the highlights of my life.

The real Reagan was quite human. The real Reagan presided over the Iran Contra scandal, the $500B bailout of the savings and loan industry, and amnesty for illegals.

Even the real Reagan was a decent president, don't get me wrong. I actually voted for him back in '80 under the false impression that he would cut back the size and expense of the federal government.

But, he was no match for the Demigod Reagan of legend, the one who single handedly defeated the Soviet Union and who actually did cut back the size and expense of the federal government. Oh, and under the demigod Reagan, amnesty, bailouts, and scandals were the fault of the Democrats.

Excon · Sep 30, 2015

MickeyW said:
Businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are running neck-and-neck in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lose ground to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll has found.
Poll: Ben Carson, Donald Trump run neck-and-neck - CNNPolitics.com

:thumbs:

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 20-24, mostly after Scott Walker dropped his candidacy. Those surveyed included 256 Democratic voters (which had a margin of error of plus-minus 6.1 percentage points) and 230 GOP primary voters (plus-minus 6.5 percentage points).

Such a large margin of error pretty much makes polls like this unreliable.

Regardless.

It is too early to be putting any trust in single Polls, especially as there will always be another showing different numbers.
For example.
Here is a poll of 1,543 registered voters released the following day after the initial release of the one you provided.

Morning Consult

Trump 30%
Carson 15%
Bush 10%
Rubio 09%
Fiorina 09%
Cruz 05%

Poll: Biden Broadly Favorable, But Clinton Still Leads

You can rest assured that there will be another poll coming along that will show different numbers from this one as well.

Maybe aggregate numbers should be reviewed until we are closer to the primaries?

Huffingtonpost
2016 National Republican Primary

Trump 26.8%
Carson 16.3%
Fiorina 09.5%
Bush 09.0%
Rubio 08.4%
Cruz 05.6%

2016 National Republican Primary

Real Clear Politics
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Trump 23.4%
Carson 17.0%
Fiorina 11.6%
Rubio 09.6%
Bush 09.2%
Cruz 06.2%

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Reuters | Monthly average
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Trump 27.1%
Carson 10.2%
Bush 08.1%
Huckabee 04.0%
Cruz 03.7%
Fiorina 03.5%

Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Reuters | (5-day rolling)
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Trump 26.3%
Carson 11.4%
Bush 09.4%
Fiorina 07.4%
Cruz 04.1%

Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Dittohead not! · Sep 30, 2015

Excon said:
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 20-24, mostly after Scott Walker dropped his candidacy. Those surveyed included 256 Democratic voters (which had a margin of error of plus-minus 6.1 percentage points) and 230 GOP primary voters (plus-minus 6.5 percentage points).

Such a large margin of error pretty much makes polls like this unreliable.

Regardless.

It is too early to be putting any trust in single Polls, especially as there will always be another showing different numbers.
For example.
Here is a poll of 1,543 registered voters released the following day after the initial release of the one you provided.

Morning Consult

Trump 30%
Carson 15%
Bush 10%
Rubio 09%
Fiorina 09%
Cruz 05%
Poll: Biden Broadly Favorable, But Clinton Still Leads

You can rest assured that there will be another poll coming along that will show different numbers from this one as well.

Maybe aggregate numbers should be reviewed until we are closer to the primaries?

Huffingtonpost
2016 National Republican Primary

Trump 26.8%
Carson 16.3%
Fiorina 09.5%
Bush 09.0%
Rubio 08.4%
Cruz 05.6%
2016 National Republican Primary

Real Clear Politics
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Trump 23.4%
Carson 17.0%
Fiorina 11.6%
Rubio 09.6%
Bush 09.2%
Cruz 06.2%
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Reuters | Monthly average
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Trump 27.1%
Carson 10.2%
Bush 08.1%
Huckabee 04.0%
Cruz 03.7%
Fiorina 03.5%
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Reuters | (5-day rolling)
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Trump 26.3%
Carson 11.4%
Bush 09.4%
Fiorina 07.4%
Cruz 04.1%
Possible Republican presidential candidates in 2016

Prediction is a bit unreliable this far from the election, agreed.

Unfortunately, all of your polls show Trump and Carson running first and second. Let's hope that is an unreliable prediction as well. Are we to choose between one of them and Hillary Clinton in 2016?

Holy crap. Surely, we can do better than that.

Excon · Sep 30, 2015

Dittohead not! said:
Prediction is a bit unreliable this far from the election, agreed.

Unfortunately, all of your polls show Trump and Carson running first and second.

The claim in the OP is that Trump and Carson are neck-and-neck, yet that is only for that one unreliable poll.

While Polls do change, the Monthly averages for Carson show that he is consistently below Trump.
Besides using averages as a better metric, that is a point of my reply.

Dittohead not! · Sep 30, 2015

Excon said:
The claim in the OP is that Trump and Carson are neck-and-neck, yet that is only for that one unreliable poll.

While Polls do change, the Monthly averages for Carson show that he is consistently below Trump.
Besides using averages as a better metric, that is a point of my reply.

And you're correct in that. Trump is consistently running first, Carson second.

But either one would make a terrible president, and would be unlikely to win against Clinton anyway.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and the election. Maybe Clinton won't be the Democratic nominee. Maybe she'll be indicted for the email mess. Maybe some dark horse will come forward.

I hope so at least. The prospect of having to choose between Trump/Carson or Hillary is a bit like the prospect of another year of drought in this battered state.

Excon · Sep 30, 2015

Dittohead not! said:
But either one would make a terrible president,

Really don't care what you personally think of any of the candidates, especially as that is not what I am discussing.

Dittohead not! said:
and would be unlikely to win against Clinton anyway.

I have already provided Polling in another thread that shows Trump wins against Hillary.
But like I said, Polls change.

Dittohead not! · Sep 30, 2015

Excon said:
Really don't care what you personally think of any of the candidates, especially as that is not what I am discussing.

I have already provided Polling in another thread that shows Trump wins against Hillary.
But like I said, Polls change.

If that one is accurate, let's hope it changes.

Poll: Ben Carson, Donald Trump run neck-and-neck

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