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If Republicans want to become the majority party again, they are going to have to move toward the center on cultural issues, become more pragmatic and less ideological on domestic and foreign policy issues, and start showing some fiscal restraint.
They cannot do that though. Reason being is that they are being boxed into the South. The Democrats finally got some sense about them and started listening the guys like Clinton, the DLC, and for that matter even Howard Dean. To compete in traditionally Republican areas of the Midwest and Mountain West, they recruited candidates who were against the war and economic populists, but were also pro-gun, cultural traditionalists, and in some cases even pro-life. Basically, people who are pragmatic, believe in the populist notion of a good government that serves the people, but are not magnets for culture war wedge issues either. Moreover, Howard Dean has taken the party to a 50 state strategy, where instead of just trying to win the Coasts and major cities in the upper Midwest, the party is building up its organization in every state in the nation, including some of the Republican’s biggest strong holds.
So in a world where culture war wedge issues are losing their punch in the Midwest and Mountain West, where does that leave Republicans who have depended on them to win for the last 12 years? It is a big problem, if Democrats run pro-gun / pro-life candidates in Midwestern or Western States where that would have served as a wedge issue, then it would seem that would force Republicans to try to strengthen even more their strongest base right now which would be Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians, otherwise known as the “Religious Right”. The problem is that the Religious Right is largely a southern phenomenon, restricted to areas where denominations like Baptists, Pentecostals, and Assemblies of God are dominant. The larger problem though, is that by moving even more to the right on social issues in an effort to further placate the Religious Right, they drive a wedge between themselves and everyone else.
There is even a bigger problem that conservative Republicans face. The national Demographics are quickly changing. In 2000, Republican pollsters and strategists looked at the changing demographics in this country and concluded that if Republicans did not find a way to get a significantly larger chunk of the Black and Hispanic vote, that in 2008, it would be statistically impossible for them to win a national election. Moreover, with every election thereafter, the situation would only get worse. This only compounds the Republican Problem, in trying to placate their religious right and socially conservative base, many times as a result they alienate Blacks and Hispanics.
Now it would seem that the answer for Republicans is to take more of a libertarian philosophy, basically a limited government that is used as neither a tool of social change, or moral and religious endorsement and promotion. They cannot do that though because their Religious Right base wants more than anything else for government to be used as a tool for moral and religious endorsement and promotion, even in some cases compulsion.
On the fiscal side, they have a huge problem as well. Most Republicans ideologically believe that the only thing the Federal Government should do is provide for defense, in some cases infrastructure, and keep the mail running. They believe in individual responsibility. Most Democrats believe in a government that is a servant of the people. The old “Good Government” philosophy of men like FDR and JFK. They believe in collective responsibility. Thus the problem Republicans have is that they come to government wanting to drown it in a bathtub, yet they are forced to govern a government that was built by those who believe that government can be a progressive agent in society and good servant of the people. So they pass a tax cut one day, and then appease their constituents by pushing a ton of pork through the next day. For example, 1993 there were 1,500 pork projects, last year there were over 15,000. Moreover, they end up with the inevitable result of a bloated and incompetent government that they simply do not believe in. As a result, Republicans, the party that is supposed to be the party of smaller government, has since coming to power grown the fiscal size of government more than any other administration before. Conversely, as we saw in the response to Katrina, the mess that is the Medicare Drug Benefit, and the failures in Iraq, despite the fact that the fiscal size of government has grown so much, it is because of their ideological disbelief in government, more incompetent and ineffective than ever before.
Where does this leave Democrats then? Well, if Democrats can, as they say they are going to do, keep to the center, maintain a broad base, and keep the far left at bay, then they are in good shape for a long time to come. Democrats have wised up over the last 12 years and thus I think they intend on doing that and probably will do just that. They know they are strongest when they are an economically populist party that does not get bogged down with cultural war issues. In fact, if they succeed, the only hope for Republicans would be if a disaffected minority of leftists were to become so disenchanted with the party that they started voting for the Green Party in droves. This however is pretty unlikely, after sitting through 6 years of total Republican domination, even the most hardcore leftists have figured out there really is a difference between Democrats and Republicans and they would rather have center left Democrats in power than hard core Republicans any day.
So in conclusion, despite what conservative pundits are claiming, the worst mistake Republicans could make at this point would be to move further to the right. Just like hard core Liberalism, Conservative Movement Conservatism is dead. It may be alive in the hearts and minds of Right Wing Talk Radio hosts and pundits, but is a failure, it just does not work in the real world. They need to move to the center, become less ideological and more pragmatic, and cast off the religious right. The problem for them is finding a way to do that.
They cannot do that though. Reason being is that they are being boxed into the South. The Democrats finally got some sense about them and started listening the guys like Clinton, the DLC, and for that matter even Howard Dean. To compete in traditionally Republican areas of the Midwest and Mountain West, they recruited candidates who were against the war and economic populists, but were also pro-gun, cultural traditionalists, and in some cases even pro-life. Basically, people who are pragmatic, believe in the populist notion of a good government that serves the people, but are not magnets for culture war wedge issues either. Moreover, Howard Dean has taken the party to a 50 state strategy, where instead of just trying to win the Coasts and major cities in the upper Midwest, the party is building up its organization in every state in the nation, including some of the Republican’s biggest strong holds.
So in a world where culture war wedge issues are losing their punch in the Midwest and Mountain West, where does that leave Republicans who have depended on them to win for the last 12 years? It is a big problem, if Democrats run pro-gun / pro-life candidates in Midwestern or Western States where that would have served as a wedge issue, then it would seem that would force Republicans to try to strengthen even more their strongest base right now which would be Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians, otherwise known as the “Religious Right”. The problem is that the Religious Right is largely a southern phenomenon, restricted to areas where denominations like Baptists, Pentecostals, and Assemblies of God are dominant. The larger problem though, is that by moving even more to the right on social issues in an effort to further placate the Religious Right, they drive a wedge between themselves and everyone else.
There is even a bigger problem that conservative Republicans face. The national Demographics are quickly changing. In 2000, Republican pollsters and strategists looked at the changing demographics in this country and concluded that if Republicans did not find a way to get a significantly larger chunk of the Black and Hispanic vote, that in 2008, it would be statistically impossible for them to win a national election. Moreover, with every election thereafter, the situation would only get worse. This only compounds the Republican Problem, in trying to placate their religious right and socially conservative base, many times as a result they alienate Blacks and Hispanics.
Now it would seem that the answer for Republicans is to take more of a libertarian philosophy, basically a limited government that is used as neither a tool of social change, or moral and religious endorsement and promotion. They cannot do that though because their Religious Right base wants more than anything else for government to be used as a tool for moral and religious endorsement and promotion, even in some cases compulsion.
On the fiscal side, they have a huge problem as well. Most Republicans ideologically believe that the only thing the Federal Government should do is provide for defense, in some cases infrastructure, and keep the mail running. They believe in individual responsibility. Most Democrats believe in a government that is a servant of the people. The old “Good Government” philosophy of men like FDR and JFK. They believe in collective responsibility. Thus the problem Republicans have is that they come to government wanting to drown it in a bathtub, yet they are forced to govern a government that was built by those who believe that government can be a progressive agent in society and good servant of the people. So they pass a tax cut one day, and then appease their constituents by pushing a ton of pork through the next day. For example, 1993 there were 1,500 pork projects, last year there were over 15,000. Moreover, they end up with the inevitable result of a bloated and incompetent government that they simply do not believe in. As a result, Republicans, the party that is supposed to be the party of smaller government, has since coming to power grown the fiscal size of government more than any other administration before. Conversely, as we saw in the response to Katrina, the mess that is the Medicare Drug Benefit, and the failures in Iraq, despite the fact that the fiscal size of government has grown so much, it is because of their ideological disbelief in government, more incompetent and ineffective than ever before.
Where does this leave Democrats then? Well, if Democrats can, as they say they are going to do, keep to the center, maintain a broad base, and keep the far left at bay, then they are in good shape for a long time to come. Democrats have wised up over the last 12 years and thus I think they intend on doing that and probably will do just that. They know they are strongest when they are an economically populist party that does not get bogged down with cultural war issues. In fact, if they succeed, the only hope for Republicans would be if a disaffected minority of leftists were to become so disenchanted with the party that they started voting for the Green Party in droves. This however is pretty unlikely, after sitting through 6 years of total Republican domination, even the most hardcore leftists have figured out there really is a difference between Democrats and Republicans and they would rather have center left Democrats in power than hard core Republicans any day.
So in conclusion, despite what conservative pundits are claiming, the worst mistake Republicans could make at this point would be to move further to the right. Just like hard core Liberalism, Conservative Movement Conservatism is dead. It may be alive in the hearts and minds of Right Wing Talk Radio hosts and pundits, but is a failure, it just does not work in the real world. They need to move to the center, become less ideological and more pragmatic, and cast off the religious right. The problem for them is finding a way to do that.
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