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There will never again be enough jobs...

Absentglare said:
Sorry, i did not mean to imply that we should seek full employment. What i mean to say is that we should work against unemployment and underemployment for the purpose of shared prosperity.
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I'm going to be heading in the opposite direction on this, Absentglare.

Hope you join me for the next three threads. One coming tomorrow is a very short one...and merely sets up the one that follows.

I'll post a link here. Stay with me.
 
Ntharotep said:
I tend to agree here. The things that still really nee doing like fixing or operating the machines that are doing all these other things need to be higher paying. Everyday jobs that it doesn't make sense to automate need to be better paying.
This is also why the entertainment venues are literally flooded these days. Its the one last boundary that machines aren't expected to make a leap into in the very near future.


The exception, as I noted above, is entertainment. Machines can write music, paint pictures, and write stories but a) they are rarely original works and b) (especially in writing) they are not generally creative enough that anyone has any interest in them.
That might change but its still the last boundary for robotic "thinking".
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I seriously doubt that machines, however sophisticated they may become, will ever become creative. How can a computer be programmed to have an imagination?
 
Dittohead not! said:
I seriously doubt that machines, however sophisticated they may become, will ever become creative. How can a computer be programmed to have an imagination?
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I suspect that within the next century...what computers will be able to do (including creativity and imagination) would stagger today's minds.

Anyway...the most recent of my series was posted today...and I hope anyone following this thread at least visits that one.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/science-and-technology/246908-third-problem.html
 
imagep said:
And history has proven such predictions correct.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the average work week was 70 hours. By the end of the 20th century, it was down to 40 hours. That's a 30 hour reduction in the need for human labor. I see no reason why this trend won't continue into the 20th century, as a matter of fact, it actually has.

Now assuming that the rate of technology growth doesn't change in the 21st century (I expect that it will actually speed up), by the end of the 21st century, the average workweek may be as little as little as 10 hours per week - assuming that we spread work around instead of having fewer workers working just as long.
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That is not "provung it correct", but only showing a preference for fewer working hours and less of work availability.
 
imagep said:
It hasn't improved the standard of living for the long term unemployed. And adjusted for inflation the low skilled worker has plummetted by 30% since the late 1960's.
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It has improved the living standard of something like 2 billions or more since the 1950s. That it is difficult for some groups is not surprising. But judging alone by the statistics, even the long term unemployed are no less well of in terms of buying power than they were in the 1950s, i wouldn't think. Or do you have a comparison? Assuming you are talking about the bottom 10 percent, they were about as well of as in Germany the last time I looked and had a manifold of what the world poor have, some of whom have grabbed their jobs.
 
imagep said:
I don't know why. We've already been experiencing it. It's not something that we are just going to wake up to, it's something that is very gradual. And as I pointed out, the present development has only marginally to do with long term saturation of the production factor, but more with the huge increase of available labor and the restrictions on increasing the disposable amount of capital goods.

We need not be like the frog in cool water who gets boiled alive because we forget to jump out as the water warms.
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We might be in the process. It has been going on for two centuries. Such things take time
 
ReverendHellh0und said:
Why Get off Welfare? | Cato Institute
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Perhaps it’s because, while poor people are not lazy, they are not stupid either. If you pay people more not to work than they can earn at a job, many won’t work.

A new study by the Cato Institute found that in many states, it does indeed pay better to be on welfare than it does to work.
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and that's what is basically wrong with our current system. People who choose to work should be better off than people who choose not to work.

Anyone who is not severely disabled (not just "disabled" according to the SS disability guidelines) needs to work to feel useful. Just letting the government take care of you shouldn't be a choice anyone would want to make.
 
Frank Apisa said:
...uhhh...lemme rephrase that first thought:

It is my opinion there will never, ever again, be enough decent-paying jobs available for all the people who need and/or want one. Never, ever again. Not in our country—nor anywhere else in the world. Free market dynamics will not produce them—nor will any president, congress, or legislative agenda either. The days when it makes sense to pay humans a living wage to do things that machines, robots, and computers can do more efficiently; at a greater rate of productivity; and at less cost than for humans—are over. They are a thing of the past and will NEVER return.
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Yep, great thread Frank. And yet we still get these idiots in Washington saying "save SS by extending the retirement age, make people work longer". Will never happen, and we need to get old people out of jobs so that we can get young people into jobs so that they dont decide to burn America to the ground.

I dont have any solution for this problem, but I know that our economic system and our political system are not remotely ready to deal with it. Which is why the problem is ignored, which has over the years become the common way to deal with our problems. Which is how we know that big changes are coming. I have long said that this civilization is ending, to include the current economic system.
 
Dittohead not! said:
and that's what is basically wrong with our current system. People who choose to work should be better off than people who choose not to work.

Anyone who is not severely disabled (not just "disabled" according to the SS disability guidelines) needs to work to feel useful. Just letting the government take care of you shouldn't be a choice anyone would want to make.
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The biggest problems are: The labor market falls apart when when the majority of humans are not needed for work, this economic system is not set up to provide quality of life for the non workers, and contribution to the common good and being needed are essential in maintaining individual health. The only proposed solution I have seen is to give everyone a smallish allowance for the basics in life from the government , and those who want more money can compete for the jobs, with most people not allowed to work more than 30 hours. But the global economy already does not allow governments to fund obligations that they already have, there is no way to deal with this through government welfare.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
The biggest problems are: The labor market falls apart when when the majority of humans are not needed for work, this economic system is not set up to provide quality of life for the non workers, and contribution to the common good and being needed are essential in maintaining individual health. The only proposed solution I have seen is to give everyone a smallish allowance for the basics in life from the government , and those who want more money can compete for the jobs, with most people not allowed to work more than 30 hours. But the global economy already does not allow governments to fund obligations that they already have, there is no way to deal with this through government welfare.
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So, basically the majority of people, the ones who aren't needed in the labor market are screwed.

Surely, there must be a better way.
 
Dittohead not! said:
So, basically the majority of people, the ones who aren't needed in the labor market are screwed.

Surely, there must be a better way.
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I thin new economic systems and a global government are going to be required to solve the problem. I am 53, I will not see this in my lifetime, but it is coming. Till then hold on to your seat, things are going to get choppy. Then they will get really bad.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I thin new economic systems and a global government are going to be required to solve the problem. I am 53, I will not see this in my lifetime, but it is coming. Till then hold on to your seat, things are going to get choppy. Then they will get really bad.
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Which could lead to wars, which are the way we get rid of the overproduction of goods that stems from automation. Seems like I've read about that somewhere... let's see.. war is peace. Yes, I believe I've read that apparent oxymoron somewhere.
 
Dittohead not! said:
Which could lead to wars, which are the way we get rid of the overproduction of goods that stems from automation. Seems like I've read about that somewhere... let's see.. war is peace. Yes, I believe I've read that apparent oxymoron somewhere.
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Lots of wars and lots of migrants, or at least people who want to be migrants, they will be like locus, they will move in swarms and destroy every place they go. Europe is first.
 
Dittohead not! said:
So, basically the majority of people, the ones who aren't needed in the labor market are screwed.

Surely, there must be a better way.
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Of course there is, because it's not going to come to that.

Seems some of the brightest are more of the same opinion as I've been expounding in this thread.

Robots Will Take Our Jobs—But We Will Adapt

Robots Will Steal Our Jobs, But They’ll Give Us New Ones

There still are a lot of challenges for robotics to pose any great threat for a wholesale replace of human labor.

Nova - Raise Of The Robots

Just have witness the various and frequent failures of robotics in the DARPA challenge program.

Hawkeye10 said:
I thin new economic systems and a global government are going to be required to solve the problem. I am 53, I will not see this in my lifetime, but it is coming. Till then hold on to your seat, things are going to get choppy. Then they will get really bad.
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No, there is no need for a new economic system, nor a global government either.

In the long history of work automation, replacing human labor, the humans freed from that labor have gone on and done other things, which the machines can't do.

How many welders in automobile manufacturing are there anymore? Not many. Human welders are spared this hellish labor, and instead are in the repair department, doing the welding that robots can't.

This pattern will continue to repeat itself.
 
eohrnberger said:
Just have witness the various and frequent failures of robotics in the DARPA challenge program.



No, there is no need for a new economic system, nor a global government either.

In the long history of work automation, replacing human labor, the humans freed from that labor have gone on and done other things, which the machines can't do.

How many welders in automobile manufacturing are there anymore? Not many. Human welders are spared this hellish labor, and instead are in the repair department, doing the welding that robots can't.

This pattern will continue to repeat itself.
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Ya, and we get told when we notice problem with youth "elders always think youth sucks, so they must be fine".

No, it might be that this time they actually suck, and thus we are screwed.

Your economic idea that churn of tech improvements always leads to an OK result has already been proven wrong.

Humans are not OK.

The Planet is not OK.
 
eohrnberger said:
Of course there is, because it's not going to come to that.

Seems some of the brightest are more of the same opinion as I've been expounding in this thread.

Robots Will Take Our Jobs—But We Will Adapt

Robots Will Steal Our Jobs, But They’ll Give Us New Ones

There still are a lot of challenges for robotics to pose any great threat for a wholesale replace of human labor.

Nova - Raise Of The Robots

Just have witness the various and frequent failures of robotics in the DARPA challenge program.



No, there is no need for a new economic system, nor a global government either.

In the long history of work automation, replacing human labor, the humans freed from that labor have gone on and done other things, which the machines can't do.

How many welders in automobile manufacturing are there anymore? Not many. Human welders are spared this hellish labor, and instead are in the repair department, doing the welding that robots can't.

This pattern will continue to repeat itself.
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And so humans will adapt yet again, and everything will be OK.

Humans are pretty adaptable, to be sure.

Perhaps we'll be OK.

Or, maybe the most adaptable humans will survive and pass their genes on to the next generation.

Evolution in action.
 
plenty of jobs on craigslist, my solution to filling them; full stop on welfare to anyone who has four functional limbs.
 
Dittohead not! said:
And so humans will adapt yet again, and everything will be OK.

Humans are pretty adaptable, to be sure.

Perhaps we'll be OK.

Or, maybe the most adaptable humans will survive and pass their genes on to the next generation.

Evolution in action.
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For a long time it's been said that humans have removed themselves from evolutionary influences. Considering your post, I'd have to agree, they have not.

While humans may not be subject to nature's evolutionary pressures, the pressures of day to day life are inescapable.

Consider the successful small businessman. He's making it, got a good income stream going, his efforts provides for his family well. He's not going to abort an unexpected 3rd or 4th pregnancy. He's going to raise those kids (we hope).

A single mother and head of household may not come to the same decision.

Success in the pretty much artificial human constructed society is an evolutionary pressure of sorts, don't you think?
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Lots of wars and lots of migrants, or at least people who want to be migrants, they will be like locus, they will move in swarms and destroy every place they go. Europe is first.
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Greetings, Hawkeye10. :2wave:

:agree: It does seem to be working out that way! :thumbdown: Some of the countries in Europe are starting to push back, though, which is not surprising. Not many people enjoy being taken advantage of when they've been kind enough to offer refuge.
 
eohrnberger said:
For a long time it's been said that humans have removed themselves from evolutionary influences. Considering your post, I'd have to agree, they have not.

While humans may not be subject to nature's evolutionary pressures, the pressures of day to day life are inescapable.

Consider the successful small businessman. He's making it, got a good income stream going, his efforts provides for his family well. He's not going to abort an unexpected 3rd or 4th pregnancy. He's going to raise those kids (we hope).

A single mother and head of household may not come to the same decision.

Success in the pretty much artificial human constructed society is an evolutionary pressure of sorts, don't you think?
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Perhaps the African cultures in which wealth is shown by the number of wives on has have the right idea.
 
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