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When are too many people in prison?

Catz Part Deux

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This is a section of a piece from the Cato Institute. I've cut only one section from the entirety (which talks about the impact of black incarceration rates versus the impact of black on black crime) because it dispells an importion notion: That the U.S. is more violent than other western countries.

We aren't.

In fact our rates of victimization are significantly less, per 100,000 people.

When Are There Too Many People in Prison?

So the United States puts more people in prison than other countries? By itself that isn’t evidence that something has gone wrong. Do higher arrest and conviction rates and longer prison terms, and the death penalty deter crime? The evidence that punishment deters criminals is overwhelming. While that evidence should be sufficient, the United States has a high prison population, but the United States also appears to have a relatively low violent crime rate compared to most other developed countries.

A sophisticated analysis wouldn’t just say the penalties are too high, it would compare the costs of enforcement against the reduced costs from the crimes that are deterred. One good place to start is to recognize the benefits from deterrence. Changes in arrest rates account for up to about 18 percent of the variation in murder rates (see Lott, 2007, Chapter 4). Conviction rates explain up to another 12 percent. Prison sentences another 10 percent and the death penalty another 10 percent.

I don’t put much weight in the cross-sectional analysis apparently favored by Loury simply because it is much easier to control for differences across countries with panel data, but the United States’ high prison rate is at least balanced off by a relatively low violent crime rate. The International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS) indicates that for the violent crime categories of sexual assault, robbery and aggravated assault, the U.S. looks remarkably safe. [3] This is even truer for the more serious categories of sexual assault and robbery. Prison is costly, but one could only imagine how much higher American crimes rates would be without it.

lott3.png


While murders make up only a fraction of violent crimes, they are by far the most costly type of crime. The ICVS doesn’t compare murder rates. The U.S. white murder rate is comparable to many countries in Europe, and is just a fraction of Russia’s, one country that Loury compares the US to. The difference is driven blacks. Murders in the United States are overwhelmingly a minority problem. But the bottom line is that for murder deterrence matters. Even for the death penalty the vast majority of published refereed academic work finds that the death penalty deters crime (Lott, 2007, pp. 136-7).

Cato Unbound Blog Archive Reforms that Ignore the Black Victims of Crime

There is a common misperception that it's a bad thing that we incarcerate so many people in the U.S., but the fact of the matter is that there is a cost impact from crime that counterbalances the costs of incarceration. Just something to think about.

The comparison of the crime rates, per capita, of these other nations, also speaks to gun control issues, as well. We do own a lot of guns in the U.S., but we aren't more violent than other nations...in fact, we are significantly less violent than many with strict gun control laws.

Yes...I am a nerd, but at least I know it.
 
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well, if your data is correct that more crime is committed in other major nations and the graph below is correct that we have a disproportionately higher rate of incarceration than those other countries ... we must then conclude that our police force and judiciary are extremely efficient. that is not the common belief
Incarceration_rates_worldwide.gif
 
well, if your data is correct that more crime is committed in other major nations and the graph below is correct that we have a disproportionately higher rate of incarceration than those other countries ... we must then conclude that our police force and judiciary are extremely efficient.

Not necessarily. People do time here for acts that they would not do time for in other nations. If left on the streets, these people are likely to re-offend. And, again, not be incarcerated.
 
Not necessarily. People do time here for acts that they would not do time for in other nations. If left on the streets, these people are likely to re-offend. And, again, not be incarcerated.

i guess that's the point
if, as your data indicates, our citizens are less likely than most to commit crimes, why do we have so many people in our jails?
or is it that because we have them locked up, they are unable to commit the percentage of crimes evident in other nations?
 
or is it that because we have them locked up, they are unable to commit the percentage of crimes evident in other nations?

Ding ding ding, I think we have a winner.
 
i guess that's the point
if, as your data indicates, our citizens are less likely than most to commit crimes, why do we have so many people in our jails?
or is it that because we have them locked up, they are unable to commit the percentage of crimes evident in other nations?

I tend to think it's the latter. We are much more likely to incarcerate people who break the law, and for longer periods of time, than the other countries in the comparison. If they aren't on the street, they aren't committing crimes, per se (though they may still be committing offenses in the prison system).

I also don't know for sure what the impact of firearms ownership is on our crime rate. For instance, there are far more armed people here than in Europe, the UK, etc. Does that impact crime? I think there are studies that go both ways.

Anyway, I think the common misperception outside of the U.S. is that this is a violent, lawless place. Actually, we're less violent/lawless, per capita, than they are.
 
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but then, look at the data for japan

it has both a low incarceration rate and a low crime rate

one would think that with such a low percentage of its population in jail that would allow more criminals to roam the streets committing crime. but the data does not support that conclusion

and why does the USA, with 4% of the world's population have 25% of the world's imprisoned population. are we really that much more a criminally inclined nation?
 
but then, look at the data for japan

it has both a low incarceration rate and a low crime rate

one would think that with such a low percentage of its population in jail that would allow more criminals to roam the streets committing crime. but the data does not support that conclusion

and why does the USA, with 4% of the world's population have 25% of the world's imprisoned population. are we really that much more a criminally inclined nation?

because we can, and want to.....altho I certainly agree that we need to decriminalize weed....

I have no sympathy for sociopaths who won't get a job.
history is full of people who would rather steal than work.

With the current situation, tho, I expect we will have higher rates of property related crimes.
 
but then, look at the data for japan

it has both a low incarceration rate and a low crime rate

one would think that with such a low percentage of its population in jail that would allow more criminals to roam the streets committing crime. but the data does not support that conclusion

I don't know why Japan's crime data is so low. Cultural factors, perhaps?

I'd like to see the data on which your claim is based, by the way (25% of the world's prison population).
 
This is a section of a piece from the Cato Institute. I've cut only one section from the entirety (which talks about the impact of black incarceration rates versus the impact of black on black crime) because it dispells an importion notion: That the U.S. is more violent than other western countries.

We aren't.

In fact our rates of victimization are significantly less, per 100,000 people.

Cato Unbound Blog Archive Reforms that Ignore the Black Victims of Crime

There is a common misperception that it's a bad thing that we incarcerate so many people in the U.S., but the fact of the matter is that there is a cost impact from crime that counterbalances the costs of incarceration. Just something to think about.

The comparison of the crime rates, per capita, of these other nations, also speaks to gun control issues, as well. We do own a lot of guns in the U.S., but we aren't more violent than other nations...in fact, we are significantly less violent than many with strict gun control laws.

Yes...I am a nerd, but at least I know it.
I'm the last person on the planet who should be criticizing someone's writing style, but the correct way to ask this question is "When are prisons too small?".

Carry on.
 
I'm the last person on the planet who should be criticizing someone's writing style, but the correct way to ask this question is "When are prisons too small?".

Carry on.


That presumes that prison populations are a function of facility size and not policy decisions. This is focused on the policy perspective.
 
and why does the USA, with 4% of the world's population have 25% of the world's imprisoned population. are we really that much more a criminally inclined nation?


This was covered, we actually lock people up instead of letting them virtually do what they want without punishment.
 
With the current situation, tho, I expect we will have higher rates of property related crimes.

This is true, property crimes are on the rise, its our main focus in my police department at the moment, even though most of the time they are hard to solve.
 
This was covered, we actually lock people up instead of letting them virtually do what they want without punishment.

you detached the contrary points. on one hand, many view locking up large numbers of reprobates keeps them off the streets where they could otherwise commit more crime ... which explains why katz' data indicates we are a very criminal nation per capita but also one which the graph i posted indicates large numbers are incarcerated per capita

and standing alone, that makes sense

but you deleted the ensuing, contraindicative point, that japan, with a low per capita rate of criminality has a low incarceration rate. using that correlation, we could then conclude that jailing less of a nation's population could result in reduced criminality

only pointing out the disconnect of the data and the potential conclusions

i can appreciate if you are a law and order proponent who wants to jail people and throw away the key, in the belief that reduces crime on the streets, then that the japanese data gets in your ideology's way. not that i am sayng that is why you neglected to address the japanese experience
 
you detached the contrary points. on one hand, many view locking up large numbers of reprobates keeps them off the streets where they could otherwise commit more crime ... which explains why katz' data indicates we are a very criminal nation per capita but also one which the graph i posted indicates large numbers are incarcerated per capita

and standing alone, that makes sense

but you deleted the ensuing, contraindicative point, that japan, with a low per capita rate of criminality has a low incarceration rate. using that correlation, we could then conclude that jailing less of a nation's population could result in reduced criminality

only pointing out the disconnect of the data and the potential conclusions

i can appreciate if you are a law and order proponent who wants to jail people and throw away the key, in the belief that reduces crime on the streets, then that the japanese data gets in your ideology's way. not that i am sayng that is why you neglected to address the japanese experience

Are the Japaneese Americans or are they Japaneese?


You can't possibly sit there and tell me that you are incapable of recognizing the differences in our cultures right?

Japanese are raised to be disciplined and have respect, generally speaking.

Americans are raised by MTV and the Public Education system, often times have problems with authority, respect, and discipline.
 
Are the Japaneese Americans or are they Japaneese?


You can't possibly sit there and tell me that you are incapable of recognizing the differences in our cultures right?

Japanese are raised to be disciplined and have respect, generally speaking.

Americans are raised by MTV and the Public Education system, often times have problems with authority, respect, and discipline.

apparently you forgot the original subject of the thread, which was to compare and contrast the crime rates of the various developed nations

that is what gave rise to a comparison with japan

so, do you have anything else to offer to explain the conflicting data which shows that low crime rates exist in low incarceration rate japan while high crime rates exist in high crime rate USA ... and how that contradiction might undermine a belief that jailing lots of a population lowers the crime rate
 
apparently you forgot the original subject of the thread, which was to compare and contrast the crime rates of the various developed nations

that is what gave rise to a comparison with japan

so, do you have anything else to offer to explain the conflicting data which shows that low crime rates exist in low incarceration rate japan while high crime rates exist in high crime rate USA ... and how that contradiction might undermine a belief that jailing lots of a population lowers the crime rate

Did I not just state it?


When you have a place where due to the culture and the way families are raised, with a focus on family and education, you end up with a place where people commit less crime.

If you have people comitting less crime, you have a lower crime rate, and a lower rate of incarceration.......... Im confused by your lack of understanding this.
 
Did I not just state it?


When you have a place where due to the culture and the way families are raised, with a focus on family and education, you end up with a place where people commit less crime.

If you have people comitting less crime, you have a lower crime rate, and a lower rate of incarceration.......... Im confused by your lack of understanding this.

ok, so you acknowledge that it is cultural mores and not incarceration rates which affect the per capita crime rate

good to know you are know longer a law and order advocate
 
why katz' data indicates we are a very criminal nation per capita

Actually, we are low in crimes per capita BECAUSE we remove our criminals from society. This ain't rocket science, dude.

:roll:

As far as the Japanese, maybe white people are just inherently more criminal. Another possibility is that the societies that were compared are all pluralistic and home to large populations of immigrants...EXCEPT the Japanese, who are extremely culturally insular.

There are many possible reasons why the japanese have such a low rate of crime.
 
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Actually, we are low in crimes per capita BECAUSE we remove our criminals from society. This ain't rocket science, dude.

:roll:

As far as the Japanese, maybe white people are just inherently more criminal. Another possibility is that the societies that were compared are all pluralistic and home to large populations of immigrants...EXCEPT the Japanese, who are extremely culturally insular.

There are many possible reasons why the japanese have such a low rate of crime.


Not to mention, through our popular media culture, we actually seem to ENCOURAGE criminal behavior, especially at programs targeted for youths
 
Not to mention, through our popular media culture, we actually seem to ENCOURAGE criminal behavior, especially at programs targeted for youths

True. I also think that our society is considerably more fragmented than that of the Japanese.
 
I think that the conditions in jail play a big role also.

I'll try to find some info in English on this, but here in France there's a rehabilitation centre for young and extremely violent criminals. (watched a documentary about t recently)

The idea is to keep them in a semi-open prison in the countryside. They each have their room with comfortable furniture and are taken care of by special educators who in no case use violence against them even when the inmates themselves become violent.

The discipline is very strict, they have to get up very early in the morning and participate in all the chores. They have sanctions and rewards. They are also taught skills and manners.

After having spent a year there and following their release, only 4 out of 10 committed crimes again and went back to jail (regular jail) , the other six reintegrated into society as very responsible and hard-working citizens, that's 60% successful rehabilitation which is a lot.

Many prisons are just places for punishment and violence inside the prisons is the normal way of life. I cannot see how someone serving time in a violent atmosphere may come out to become a normal, sane and responsible person.

The downside of such prisons in the VERY high cost and I remember the director of the rehab centre saying something very logical about that, but unfortunately I forgot what it was.

Sorry my post lacks information, but I think you got the general idea.
 
This is a section of a piece from the Cato Institute. I've cut only one section from the entirety (which talks about the impact of black incarceration rates versus the impact of black on black crime) because it dispells an importion notion: That the U.S. is more violent than other western countries.

We aren't.

In fact our rates of victimization are significantly less, per 100,000 people.

But can you really say that because Cato Institute base the conclusion on
The International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS). The problem with crime victimization surveys is that they not good for comparison between countries. That at the same time is that a lot more Americans get killed compared to most other developed countries. Also why make a diffrence between whites and blacks are they not both equally much Americans?

Attempts to use the data from these national surveys for international comparison have failed. Differences in definitions of crime and other methodological differences are too big for proper comparison.

International Crime Victims Survey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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