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Odds of Turkey v Syria Ballooning into WW3?

Mmm?

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Daktoria

Daktoria

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Since Russia has been supporting Syria and Turkey is part of NATO, what are the odds of WW3?

(As a sidebar, how influential do you think Israel v Iran will be?)
 
Since I don't follow the mid east I might not be qualified to give a response, but I feel that it's pretty unlikely, but not impossible, that a world wide war could erupt based in the mid east. There certainly is a lot at stake, but the U.S. doesn't really need to secure gas and oil supplies from the mid east and Russia like China does, and since Russia sides with Syria, Iran, et al, that makes things fairly neat and compact. The only thing to worry about is Iran getting the bomb and completely destabilizing the region, and I think Israel has that fairly well in hand.
 
Minuscule...for the rest of the world there's really not a whole lot at stake for the international community to get involved in any big way.
 
Say what you will about the leadership of U.S. and Russia, but they aren't suicidal. There is absolutely nothing in Syria that could possibly be worth the risk of getting into a hot war with a nuclear power and both sides know it. Worst case scenario, you get arms shipments and a proxy war, but it doesn't go any further than that.
 
Pretty unlikely. IF WW3 were to stem from a ME issue, I think Israel and/or Iran would be at the center of it.
 
Daktoria said:
Since Russia has been supporting Syria and Turkey is part of NATO, what are the odds of WW3?

(As a sidebar, how influential do you think Israel v Iran will be?)
Click to expand...

I doubt a WW3, but I do find it interesting that Turkey just fired at Syrian targets. It'll be interesting to see how it progresses.
 
radcen said:
Pretty unlikely. IF WW3 were to stem from a ME issue, I think Israel and/or Iran would be at the center of it.
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I agree...............
 
Daktoria said:
Since Russia has been supporting Syria and Turkey is part of NATO, what are the odds of WW3?

(As a sidebar, how influential do you think Israel v Iran will be?)[/QUOTE


The destabilization that we, the USA, is causing in the MidEast is gonna bite us. I don't think a World War is in the offing, but the ignorance of antagonizing Russia is appalling. We want to surround Iran and get Russia out of the Syrian port. I think that Exxon/Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, etc. could move a lot of OIL through there. A real nice tanker port. Good business. Pipelines across Syria from Iraq, lovely. Elimanate another thorn in that powerful Congressional lobbying block known as Israel, Inc. For the time being, Russia has the NATO warmongers in check, but for how long? Let's be realistic about who the bad guys are in this region. We invaded Iraq, a Nation that was no threat to the USA. We invaded Libya, a Nation that was no threat to us. Do that give insight into Syria or are y'all waiting for the hammer up side the head? If a world war starts due to this situation, we will be the ones to initiate it. That killin' is good business.
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Unlikely, Putin is power hungry, but he is a smart man. He'd like to she Assad survive, but I highly doubt he'd ever risk a full confrontation with the US over it.
 
The whole Middle East region is a damn mine. If it's not Syria, it will be Iran. If it's not Iran, it will be Israel. It would take a miracle to stop the war there, let's hope it will stay local. :neutral:
 
Not gonna happen. I don't think Syria is that big of an ally to Russia, for Russia to get inolved in a World War. Nor do I think Russia would defend Syria's land if Turkey were to invade. Russia can easily be economic partners with the next Syrian government. They probably don't want to lose a sure thing, but it's not something to start a war over.
 
DaveFagan said:
Daktoria said:
Since Russia has been supporting Syria and Turkey is part of NATO, what are the odds of WW3?

(As a sidebar, how influential do you think Israel v Iran will be?)[/QUOTE


The destabilization that we, the USA, is causing in the MidEast is gonna bite us. I don't think a World War is in the offing, but the ignorance of antagonizing Russia is appalling. We want to surround Iran and get Russia out of the Syrian port. I think that Exxon/Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, etc. could move a lot of OIL through there. A real nice tanker port. Good business. Pipelines across Syria from Iraq, lovely. Elimanate another thorn in that powerful Congressional lobbying block known as Israel, Inc. For the time being, Russia has the NATO warmongers in check, but for how long? Let's be realistic about who the bad guys are in this region. We invaded Iraq, a Nation that was no threat to the USA. We invaded Libya, a Nation that was no threat to us. Do that give insight into Syria or are y'all waiting for the hammer up side the head? If a world war starts due to this situation, we will be the ones to initiate it. That killin' is good business.
Click to expand...

You should look at a map before you talk about pipelines.
Click to expand...
 
One should make sure one's brain is in gear before typing. There is a pipeline from Kirkuk, Iraq to Bannias, Syria and Bannias' is on the Mediterranean. When you use pipelines to Turkey you have to tanker through the Straits of Bosphorus and entails militarilly indefensible problems. A port directly on the Med cures such problems and speeds deliveries. Do you think the OIL companies know that? Maybe they would like more of those pipelines. Maybe you could take a look at a map.
 
DaveFagan said:
One should make sure one's brain is in gear before typing. There is a pipeline from Kirkuk, Iraq to Bannias, Syria and Bannias' is on the Mediterranean. When you use pipelines to Turkey you have to tanker through the Straits of Bosphorus and entails militarilly indefensible problems. A port directly on the Med cures such problems and speeds deliveries. Do you think the OIL companies know that? Maybe they would like more of those pipelines. Maybe you could take a look at a map.
Click to expand...

Cause its not like Turkey has any Mediterranean ports outside the Bosporus :roll: on the contrary much of Israels oil comes from pipelines from Iran which is then shipped from the south coast.

800px-Baku_pipelines.svg.png


I dont see the impediment to piping from Iraq.
 
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Red_Dave said:
Cause its not like Turkey has any Mediterranean ports outside the Bosporus :roll: on the contrary much of Israels oil comes from pipelines from Iran which is then shipped from the south coast.

800px-Baku_pipelines.svg.png




I dont see the impediment to piping from Iraq.
Click to expand...

There isn't a problem... Great map, BTW.
 
Red_Dave said:
Cause its not like Turkey has any Mediterranean ports outside the Bosporus :roll: on the contrary much of Israels oil comes from pipelines from Iran which is then shipped from the south coast.

800px-Baku_pipelines.svg.png


I dont see the impediment to piping from Iraq.
Click to expand...


Thanks. Great map. My bad, I didn't realize that Ceyhan was a Mediterranean port. I thought it was another port that needed the Bosporus. Still, I think OIL distributors always want another option and a shorter delivery route. It is hard to defend pipelines but there is always a market for the OIL so bigger and better distribution facilities are always wanted/needed. In my opinion, ME politics are always about OIL, no matter what kind of spin the media trumpets. We, the USA, support all kinds of terrorists to destabilize any Nation that could impede OIL flow and profits. It's a business viewpoint, not a political viewpoint. The distributors make money on more OIL. A small percentage of the total of billion/trillions of barrels after it is in the tankers, tanks, pipelines, refineries, etc.
 
DaveFagan said:
In my opinion, ME politics are always about OIL, no matter what kind of spin the media trumpets. .
Click to expand...

You dont think its possible that the Syrian people decided that they didnt want to be ruled by a tyrant our of their own volition?
 
DaveFagan said:
Thanks. Great map. My bad, I didn't realize that Ceyhan was a Mediterranean port. I thought it was another port that needed the Bosporus. Still, I think OIL distributors always want another option and a shorter delivery route. It is hard to defend pipelines but there is always a market for the OIL so bigger and better distribution facilities are always wanted/needed. In my opinion, ME politics are always about OIL, no matter what kind of spin the media trumpets. We, the USA, support all kinds of terrorists to destabilize any Nation that could impede OIL flow and profits. It's a business viewpoint, not a political viewpoint. The distributors make money on more OIL. A small percentage of the total of billion/trillions of barrels after it is in the tankers, tanks, pipelines, refineries, etc.
Click to expand...

There is no Kirkuk to Bannias pipeline.. Its been shut down for 20 years.
 
Red_Dave said:
You dont think its possible that the Syrian people decided that they didnt want to be ruled by a tyrant our of their own volition?
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When and if they build it or repair the pipeline..

syria%2B%2Boil%2Bpipeline%2Bthrough%2Bkurdistan.jpg
 
I would think slim to none, since world war is an archaic term. These days, any major war is a coalition effort that would be described as a world war by early twentieth century standards.
 
Red_Dave
"You dont think its possible that the Syrian people decided that they didnt want to be ruled by a tyrant our of their own volition?"

No! When money and OIL politics are involved, you can bet your sweet ass that the players behind the scenes are manipulating events. If I saw "liberty and justice for all" in Iraq or Afganistan or Libya, then perhaps I would be siinging different lyrics. Our great Country, the USA, has profitied from continuing warfare, and the warfare runs on energy and if you make war in an OIL country, then the new OIL in the system flows to the same group that sells the OIL to run the war and they profit again. So, Syria could be about a people revolt or it could be about the status quo of business generating future and current profits. It's jus' bidness as our past president used to say. OIL business, that is.
 
DaveFagan said:
Red_Dave
"You dont think its possible that the Syrian people decided that they didnt want to be ruled by a tyrant our of their own volition?"

No! When money and OIL politics are involved, you can bet your sweet ass that the players behind the scenes are manipulating events. If I saw "liberty and justice for all" in Iraq or Afganistan or Libya, then perhaps I would be siinging different lyrics. Our great Country, the USA, has profitied from continuing warfare, and the warfare runs on energy and if you make war in an OIL country, then the new OIL in the system flows to the same group that sells the OIL to run the war and they profit again. So, Syria could be about a people revolt or it could be about the status quo of business generating future and current profits. It's jus' bidness as our past president used to say. OIL business, that is.
Click to expand...

Syria has always had pipeline problems.. look at TAPLINE and all that flap.
 
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