View Poll Results: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

Voters
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  • Mitt Romney

    41 15.30%
  • Tim Pawlenty

    9 3.36%
  • John Huntsman

    0 0%
  • Mitch Daniels

    15 5.60%
  • Sarah Palin

    4 1.49%
  • Newt Gingrich

    6 2.24%
  • Michele Bachmann

    2 0.75%
  • Donald Trump

    3 1.12%
  • Ron Paul

    172 64.18%
  • Other (specify)

    16 5.97%
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Thread: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

  1. #441
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    What about this guy?

    Thaddeus McCotter weighing White House bid - Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

    Eight years in Congress (including a leadership position), solidly conservative on most issues, voted against TARP, enough of an outsider to make his fellow Congresspeople uncomfortable with him. And he seems pretty smart, and funny to boot. Nobody knows who he is now (I just heard of him today), but that could change at any moment. He seems more exciting than the poor choices we have now. If he officially joins the race I'm keeping an eye on him.
    Last edited by Dav; 05-24-11 at 03:50 PM.

  2. #442
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I think it's interesting how you substitute "Lunatic Fringe" for "Conservatives".

    You do know that we are the largest ideological bloc in the country? And that independents are drifting solidly conservative?

    The entire country has shifted right while the Democratic Party leadership and a key active component of their base has drifted left. we aren't the "Fringe". We are the plurality.
    I find it interesting how you assume that I replaced lunatic fringe for conservative. I didn't. Conservatives are rational, intelligent individuals who believe in smart government and are a bit more restrictive regarding social policies than most centrists. The Lunatic Fringe is the far right wing of the party that believes government should be shrunk down to the size of a small dog and then drowned in a bathtub. The Lunatic Fringe is the politician who tells the folks in Missouri that just got ravaged by a 7 mile tornado that aid cannot be made to them until congress aproves spending cuts. The Lunatic Fringe are the idiots who believe Obama is born in Kenya, or that believe in Death Panels.

    And it is a common Republican argument that the country is moving in their direction. Enjoy the majority you have in the House, because if the recent election in New York is any indication, Dems will get the majority back in 2012. But please, continue to believe that the country is moving more conservative, as your overconfidence will be your undoing.
    Last edited by ADG; 05-24-11 at 04:55 PM.
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  3. #443
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by ADG View Post
    I find it interesting how you assume that I replaced lunatic fringe for conservative. I didn't. Conservatives are rational, intelligent individuals who believe in smart government and are a bit more restrictive regarding social policies than most centrists. The Lunatic Fringe is the far right wing of the party that believes government should be shrunk down to the size of a small dog and then drowned in a bathtub. The Lunatic Fringe is the politician who tells the folks in Missouri that just got ravaged by a 7 mile tornado that aid cannot be made to them until congress aproves spending cuts. The Lunatic Fringe are the idiots who believe Obama is born in Kenya, or that believe in Death Panels.

    And it is a common Republican argument that the country is moving in their direction. Enjoy the majority you have in the House, because if the recent election in New York is any indication, Dems will get the majority back in 2012. But please, continue to believe that the country is moving more conservative, as your overconfidence will be your undoing.
    To be fair, I think an emergency election in Ohio or Florida would be more indicative of the political pendulum.
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  4. #444
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by ADG View Post
    I find it interesting how you assume that I replaced lunatic fringe for conservative. I didn't. Conservatives are rational, intelligent individuals who believe in smart government and are a bit more restrictive regarding social policies than most centrists. The Lunatic Fringe is the far right wing of the party that believes government should be shrunk down to the size of a small dog and then drowned in a bathtub. The Lunatic Fringe is the politician who tells the folks in Missouri that just got ravaged by a 7 mile tornado that aid cannot be made to them until congress aproves spending cuts. The Lunatic Fringe are the idiots who believe Obama is born in Kenya, or that believe in Death Panels.

    And it is a common Republican argument that the country is moving in their direction. Enjoy the majority you have in the House, because if the recent election in New York is any indication, Dems will get the majority back in 2012. But please, continue to believe that the country is moving more conservative, as your overconfidence will be your undoing.
    the true lunatic fringe are the ones that insist the federal government is needed to handle the damage from a tornado.

    If that is the mindset of rational conservatives, then I question the definition of rational.

  5. #445
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Here's an exercise that I find useful for thinking about who the Republican nominee will be. Create the most realistic narrative you can for each candidate's path to the nomination, then read them and see which sound the most plausible. Here is my attempt:

    Mitt Romney - It was inevitable. Romney had the support of the establishment, the funds to support a campaign, and a great organization. He was the frontrunner leading into the nomination, and most of his potential rivals (Christie, Huckabee, Daniels, Barbour, Perry) chose not to enter the race at all. Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman never caught fire with Republican primary voters, leaving Romney to contend with the vanity candidates. Romney eked out a narrow victory over Michele Bachmann in Iowa, then cemented his position with a solid win in New Hampshire. After that, Romney never looked back as he won nearly every other primary.

    Tim Pawlenty - Pawlenty was blessed with amazingly good luck this presidential race. He had the good fortune to be the generic Republican candidate in a race where every other candidate was deemed unacceptable by Republicans, for one reason or another. Of the three establishment candidates in the race (Pawlenty, Romney, Huntsman), the other two mainly fought with each other for votes, leaving Pawlenty to carve out a large niche for himself: downscale Republican voters who wanted an electable nominee. Furthermore, Pawlenty benefited from being an evangelical Christian running against two Mormons. Pawlenty trounced the competition in Iowa, then stunned Mitt Romney with a strong second place finish in New Hampshire. Although he lost Nevada to Romney, he came roaring back to success in South Carolina. As it became a two-man race, most of the establishment began lining up behind Pawlenty to prevent Romney (whom they saw as too liberal or too untrustworthy) from winning the nomination. On Super Tuesday, Pawlenty won a decisive victory.

    Jon Huntsman - Huntsman entered the race a relative unknown, but emerged anything but. His stellar performances in the televised debates drew a sharp contrast with his rivals. He became viewed as the sole candidate who had both the personality to excite Republican voters and the ability to win the general election. In contrast to Romney and Pawlenty, most voters viewed Huntsman as more authentic and trustworthy. Despite the media's overblown analysis of Huntsman's relatively centrist views on civil unions, polls had always shown that his position on the issue was closer to the median Republican voter than were the views of his more conservative colleagues. After Mitt Romney finished an embarrassing fourth place in Iowa (behind Pawlenty, Huntsman, and Bachmann), pundits began openly questioning his electability and Romney's supporters and money began migrating to Huntsman. Huntsman trounced Pawlenty in New Hampshire and Nevada, and held his own with a narrow second place finish in South Carolina. Huntsman won most of the Super Tuesday states, and Pawlenty dropped out shortly thereafter.

    Herman Cain - Cain's electrifying performances in the debates inspired GOP voters more than any of the more traditional candidates. He drew massive support from the internet, and the money followed shortly thereafter. As Obama's approval ratings hovered at nearly 55% by the year's end, many GOP voters began viewing their establishment candidates as woefully inadequate to defeat Obama, and were willing to take a chance on Cain. He won the Iowa caucuses in a close finish, stunning the establishment. When Romney preceded to win New Hampshire and Nevada, and Pawlenty won South Carolina, Cain appeared to be finished. But as Romney and Pawlenty turned their guns on one another, Cain was able to rise above the fray. On Super Tuesday, Romney and Pawlenty split the vote of Republicans who preferred an establishment candidate, allowing Cain to win more votes than either of them. Pawlenty dropped out following a poor showing, but it was too late for Romney to control the damage. Having established himself as a viable candidate, Cain proceeded to win most of the subsequent states.

    Michele Bachmann - Bachmann, the darling of the conservative right, was always the natural choice to win Iowa. Most of her competitors were New Hampshire candidates, rather than Iowa candidates. Her Minnesota counterpart, Tim Pawlenty, never excited voters with his underwhelming debate performances and risk-averse campaign strategy. Following a poor showing in the Ames Straw Poll, Pawlenty dropped out. Bachmann coasted to an easy victory over Mitt Romney in Iowa, and surprised him with a win in New Hampshire too. This sent the Republican establishment into panic, which feared she was unelectable. Romney won Nevada, but Bachmann's victory in South Carolina meant that she was the clear winner in three of the four early states. When Romney dropped out following Super Tuesday, Bachmann became the presumptive nominee.

    Newt Gingrich - (I see no path whatsoever for Newt to win the nomination.)

    Ron Paul - (I see no path whatsoever for Ron Paul to win the nomination.)
    Last edited by Kandahar; 05-24-11 at 06:14 PM.
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  6. #446
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnWOlin View Post
    It still makes up almost 1/4 of their total industry. Iowa is also the biggest producer of corn and ethanol in United States. Although true, most the work force aren't farmers there I'm sure many of the people are effected by the culture so it may hit home for them. I don't know if Pawlenty could lead with something like that but seeing how Romney is a weak forerunner and Pawlenty is the second best viable candidate right now, he could very well win Iowa. I would guarantee it to him if he said something like "ethanol subsidies and oil subsidies need to be phased out".
    I wonder if Pawlenty is even aware that the current administration already has a plan to phase out corn ethanol?

    May 05 2009

    The Obama administration's sweeping revision to the federal renewable energy standard encourages development of high-yield ethanol from biomass.

    "The Environmental Protection Agency has seen a future fueled by corn ethanol, and it doesn’t much like it. That’s why in a sweeping revision to the National Renewable Fuel Standard announced today, it proposes a shift over time to the higher-yielding cellulosic form of ethanol — which is produced largely from biomass (switchgrass, woodchips and sugar cane).

    By 2022, the rulemaking proposes that the U.S. fuel mix will include 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels, 15 billion gallons of conventional biofuels, four billion gallons of “advanced biofuels” and at least a billion gallons of diesel fuel made from biomass — an increasingly viable concept (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel can all be made from “feedstocks” as varied as sawdust and sugar cane)."
    Fuel facts of life: Corn ethanol is out, and cellulosic ethanol from biomass is in | MNN - Mother Nature Network
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  7. #447
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Here's an exercise that I find useful for thinking about who the Republican nominee will be. Create the most realistic narrative you can for each candidate's path to the nomination, then read them and see which sound the most plausible. Here is my attempt:

    Mitt Romney - It was inevitable. Romney had the support of the establishment, the funds to support a campaign, and a great organization. He was the frontrunner leading into the nomination, and most of his potential rivals (Christie, Huckabee, Daniels, Barbour, Perry) chose not to enter the race at all. Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman never caught fire with Republican primary voters, leaving Romney to contend with the vanity candidates. Romney eked out a narrow victory over Michele Bachmann in Iowa, then cemented his position with a solid win in New Hampshire. After that, Romney never looked back as he won nearly every other primary.

    Tim Pawlenty - Pawlenty was blessed with amazingly good luck this presidential race. He had the good fortune to be the generic Republican candidate in a race where every other candidate was deemed unacceptable by Republicans, for one reason or another. Of the three establishment candidates in the race (Pawlenty, Romney, Huntsman), the other two mainly fought with each other for votes, leaving Pawlenty to carve out a large niche for himself: downscale Republican voters who wanted an electable nominee. Furthermore, Pawlenty benefited from being an evangelical Christian running against two Mormons. Pawlenty trounced the competition in Iowa, then stunned Mitt Romney with a strong second place finish in New Hampshire. Although he lost Nevada to Romney, he came roaring back to success in South Carolina. As it became a two-man race, most of the establishment began lining up behind Pawlenty to prevent Romney (whom they saw as too liberal or too untrustworthy) from winning the nomination. On Super Tuesday, Pawlenty won a decisive victory.

    Jon Huntsman - Huntsman entered the race a relative unknown, but emerged anything but. His stellar performances in the televised debates drew a sharp contrast with his rivals. He became viewed as the sole candidate who had both the personality to excite Republican voters and the ability to win the general election. In contrast to Romney and Pawlenty, most voters viewed Huntsman as more authentic and trustworthy. Despite the media's overblown analysis of Huntsman's relatively centrist views on civil unions, polls had always shown that his position on the issue was closer to the median Republican voter than were the views of his more conservative colleagues. After Mitt Romney finished an embarrassing fourth place in Iowa (behind Pawlenty, Huntsman, and Bachmann), pundits began openly questioning his electability and Romney's supporters and money began migrating to Huntsman. Huntsman trounced Pawlenty in New Hampshire and Nevada, and held his own with a narrow second place finish in South Carolina. Huntsman won most of the Super Tuesday states, and Pawlenty dropped out shortly thereafter.

    Herman Cain - Cain's electrifying performances in the debates inspired GOP voters more than any of the more traditional candidates. He drew massive support from the internet, and the money followed shortly thereafter. As Obama's approval ratings hovered at nearly 55% by the year's end, many GOP voters began viewing their establishment candidates as woefully inadequate to defeat Obama, and were willing to take a chance on Cain. He won the Iowa caucuses in a close finish, stunning the establishment. When Romney preceded to win New Hampshire and Nevada, and Pawlenty won South Carolina, Cain appeared to be finished. But as Romney and Pawlenty turned their guns on one another, Cain was able to rise above the fray. On Super Tuesday, Romney and Pawlenty split the vote of Republicans who preferred an establishment candidate, allowing Cain to win more votes than either of them. Pawlenty dropped out following a poor showing, but it was too late for Romney to control the damage. Having established himself as a viable candidate, Cain proceeded to win most of the subsequent states.

    Michele Bachmann - Bachmann, the darling of the conservative right, was always the natural choice to win Iowa. Most of her competitors were New Hampshire candidates, rather than Iowa candidates. Her Minnesota counterpart, Tim Pawlenty, never excited voters with his underwhelming debate performances and risk-averse campaign strategy. Following a poor showing in the Ames Straw Poll, Pawlenty dropped out. Bachmann coasted to an easy victory over Mitt Romney in Iowa, and surprised him with a win in New Hampshire too. This sent the Republican establishment into panic, which feared she was unelectable. Romney won Nevada, but Bachmann's victory in South Carolina meant that she was the clear winner in three of the four early states. When Romney dropped out following Super Tuesday, Bachmann became the presumptive nominee.

    Newt Gingrich - (I see no path whatsoever for Newt to win the nomination.)

    Ron Paul - (I see no path whatsoever for Ron Paul to win the nomination.)
    Thanks for taking the time to write all this up. I appreciate it.

  8. #448
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by ARealConservative View Post
    the true lunatic fringe are the ones that insist the federal government is needed to handle the damage from a tornado.

    If that is the mindset of rational conservatives, then I question the definition of rational.
    So the fed should be involved in emergency disaster relief?

    Quote Originally Posted by ARealConservative View Post
    This is a myth.

    It’s as gutsy as picking on the guy with tape on his glasses.

    The vast, vast majority of Iowans aren’t farmers and they gain no benefit from farm subsidies. People that claim what you just claimed show how ignorant they are about the heartland in general.
    The farm lobbies are strong in the Midwest, and have historically convinced the population that the entire state would suffer without those subsidies.
    Last edited by xpiher; 05-24-11 at 06:42 PM.

  9. #449
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by ARealConservative View Post
    the true lunatic fringe are the ones that insist the federal government is needed to handle the damage from a tornado.
    ...our first inductee...
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  10. #450
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by ADG View Post
    ...our first inductee...
    so you are basically saying that a state with a population of millions doesn't have the resources to handle a tornado.

    I nominate you.

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