View Poll Results: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

Voters
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  • Mitt Romney

    41 15.30%
  • Tim Pawlenty

    9 3.36%
  • John Huntsman

    0 0%
  • Mitch Daniels

    15 5.60%
  • Sarah Palin

    4 1.49%
  • Newt Gingrich

    6 2.24%
  • Michele Bachmann

    2 0.75%
  • Donald Trump

    3 1.12%
  • Ron Paul

    172 64.18%
  • Other (specify)

    16 5.97%
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Thread: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

  1. #221
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I disagree. Candidates can overcome flaws, but they can't overcome "not very exciting." At least not in a primary. People are voting for the one candidate who they like the best...not any number of candidates who they deem acceptable. That's why I think Pawlenty is really overrated by most of the political elite.
    Really? Jon Kerry is the go-to guy for boring candidates, and he won the nomination over a guy who famously got a little too excited. I can't imagine that a great many people were excited by Jon McCain, either, another primary-winner. Nor do I think Pawlenty is any less exciting than either George Bush. When/if people realize that voting for Pawlenty could be the best chance they have at putting a conservative in the White House, they'll start getting excited, regardless of the candidate himself. I actually think Mitch Danliels has a lot more to lose in terms of having absolutely no charisma; from what I can tell he has even less than Pawlenty.

  2. #222
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    Really? Jon Kerry is the go-to guy for boring candidates, and he won the nomination over a guy who famously got a little too excited.
    Edwards?

    And I wonder if Kerry didn't win because of his seniority and war record -though the war record seemed to be most of what was on display at the 2004 convention.

    I actually think Mitch Danliels has a lot more to lose in terms of having absolutely no charisma; from what I can tell he has even less than Pawlenty.
    the man ran two successful campaigns for Governor off the back of his harley. I think (hope?) he might surprise us.

  3. #223
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    This far out, its too early to tell.

  4. #224
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Could be...Romney is up a couple percent today, but it's hard to tell how much of that is due to his fundraising and how much of it is due to other factors like Huckabee/Trump declining to run. I think InTrade is usually pretty good about ignoring the campaign minutiae if it won't ultimately make that much of a difference in the outcome.
    really? i assumed it worked like the stock market - with some long investors and some short jumpy ones. what is Intrade's record?

  5. #225
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Edwards?
    Not quite:


    the man ran two successful campaigns for Governor off the back of his harley. I think (hope?) he might surprise us.
    Ok, I just looked that up... yeah, the Harley will definitely earn him some points.

  6. #226
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    Really? Jon Kerry is the go-to guy for boring candidates, and he won the nomination over a guy who famously got a little too excited. I can't imagine that a great many people were excited by Jon McCain, either, another primary-winner. Nor do I think Pawlenty is any less exciting than either George Bush. When/if people realize that voting for Pawlenty could be the best chance they have at putting a conservative in the White House, they'll start getting excited, regardless of the candidate himself. I actually think Mitch Danliels has a lot more to lose in terms of having absolutely no charisma; from what I can tell he has even less than Pawlenty.
    But Kerry and McCain were both the presumptive frontrunners from the outset. Being boring might not be crippling for a candidate with lots of name recognition who is essentially the default nominee, and just has to not screw up...but I think it's a lot more of a handicap for someone like Pawlenty, who is virtually unknown to the electorate and needs to make a case for why he should get the nomination as opposed to more familiar faces.

    Maybe that challenge isn't insurmountable, but as I see it, his chances are being greatly overrated by the media and by the InTrade bettors.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 05-17-11 at 10:05 PM.
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  7. #227
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Yeah, i got the reference, but i thought the final contest came down to edwards v kerry?

  8. #228
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    really? i assumed it worked like the stock market - with some long investors and some short jumpy ones. what is Intrade's record?
    Yeah there are some short/jumpy investors, but they're in the small minority for contracts with a lot of volume (like the 2012 presidential elections). The long investors tend to ignore things like fundraisers, and/or factor it into the price ahead of time.
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  9. #229
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barbbtx View Post
    Palin never declared herself a candidate or formed an exploratory committee When/if she does, she's out as a paid contributor.
    She has not showed serious intention of running by forming an exploratory committee. If she had, she would not still be working for Fox! Its the same reason we knew that Huckabee was not going to run long before his annoncement of that fact.

    "In an exclusive interview given to the "Los Angeles Times" Wednesday, Fox News executive vice president of legal and business affairs said the channel will make a decision on contracts with Palin and Huckabee "as soon as each of them shows some serious intention to form an exploratory committee."
    Fox News’ contributor conundrum – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

    You can relax now, your man Cain will not have to worry about competing with Palin in the Primary.
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  10. #230
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Moderator's Warning:
    Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?Wow, I feel like I'm beginning to become a broken record here.

    Haymarket and Reverend. This isn't the basement. The forum is not your private battle ground where you can wage your personal battle wherever you wish. I'm glad to see one of you have at least moved beyond your little feud and got back on topic. I suggest that after this point both of you continue in that fashion, because if it returns to the off topic back and forth action will be taken.

    Also, this will be the last time I preempt such action in a thread with a general warning. You both have been warned far enough about your feuding. I'd suggest, in the future, if you dislike the little extras that one or the other says you bite your tongue and stick to the topic, because your ability to lightly address it and stay primarily on topic has seemed to be non-existant.

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