View Poll Results: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

Voters
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  • Mitt Romney

    41 15.30%
  • Tim Pawlenty

    9 3.36%
  • John Huntsman

    0 0%
  • Mitch Daniels

    15 5.60%
  • Sarah Palin

    4 1.49%
  • Newt Gingrich

    6 2.24%
  • Michele Bachmann

    2 0.75%
  • Donald Trump

    3 1.12%
  • Ron Paul

    172 64.18%
  • Other (specify)

    16 5.97%
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Thread: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

  1. #181
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    hey, at 10 to 1, i'll throw down 20 bucks on Mitch - and take the Wifey on a nice date to celebrate his nomination

  2. #182
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    In a race between the candidates listed above, I'd say Pawlenty. "Not very exciting" really isn't strong enough a negative to make up for the other candidates' flaws (Romney's health care thing, Palin's inexperience, etc).
    I disagree. Candidates can overcome flaws, but they can't overcome "not very exciting." At least not in a primary. People are voting for the one candidate who they like the best...not any number of candidates who they deem acceptable. That's why I think Pawlenty is really overrated by most of the political elite.
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  3. #183
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barbbtx View Post
    Intrade Prediction Markets

    Do you know how this intrade works and what the numbers could mean?
    I found Cain bid 5.6 ask 7.2
    Everyone else had less than a dollar difference, some as little as a penny.
    Does this mean people are expecting his chances to up a lot? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
    It can mean one of two things: 1) There isn't that much volume on the contract yet because people aren't betting on Herman Cain's prospects one way or the other, or 2) You happened to view the website right after someone made a big buy/sell and it temporarily left a big gap in the bid/ask price. But really a gap of 1.6 is not that unusual.
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  4. #184
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    hey, at 10 to 1, i'll throw down 20 bucks on Mitch - and take the Wifey on a nice date to celebrate his nomination
    I agree about Daniels being a good buy right now on InTrade. I think Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, and Michele Bachmann (seriously) are all being undervalued by InTrade right now. And I think Tim Pawlenty and John Huntsman are being grossly overvalued.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 05-16-11 at 09:54 PM.
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  5. #185
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    I'm neither for nor against it at this point in time. Michigan elected the governor, who asked the legislature (which Michigan elected) to pass legislation allowing him to select city managers. Though indirectly, the entire process was completed through representative government. If the city managers begin dictating outside of existing laws I'll have an issue.
    Representatives at the STATE level taking away the right of local people to elect local officials at the local level. Its a disgrace and Ronald Reagan would be spinning in his grave. I only wonder if Lincoln would be spinning faster knowing that his "government of the people, by the people and for the people" has been changed to only the final one-third of the phrase by his own party.
    __________________________________________________ _
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  6. #186
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    It can mean one of two things: 1) There isn't that much volume on the contract yet because people aren't betting on Herman Cain's prospects one way or the other, or 2) You happened to view the website right after someone made a big buy/sell and it temporarily left a big gap in the bid/ask price. But really a gap of 1.6 is not that unusual.
    Romney had a 10 Million + fundraiser today; i'm betting the trading is reflecting that.

  7. #187
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Romney had a 10 Million + fundraiser today; i'm betting the trading is reflecting that.
    Could be...Romney is up a couple percent today, but it's hard to tell how much of that is due to his fundraising and how much of it is due to other factors like Huckabee/Trump declining to run. I think InTrade is usually pretty good about ignoring the campaign minutiae if it won't ultimately make that much of a difference in the outcome.
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  8. #188
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    from the Rev



    from the summary of beliefs of the TRUE BELIEVER



    thanks rev for a picture perfect illustration of the True Believer. Combine that with your own previous admissions to being a tea party follower, and a rightist libertarian, and its a signed and sealed confession.

    thanks again.


    Wow that was a stretch.

    So a true believer is someone who disagrees with you. Who thinks that we need to cut back and have a balances budget.


    My man only one person here is sounding cultish.
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

  9. #189
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    Wow that was a stretch.

    So a true believer is someone who disagrees with you. Who thinks that we need to cut back and have a balances budget.


    My man only one person here is sounding cultish.
    Socks stretch also when making a perfect fit.

    You really need to read Eric Hoffer. Every time you try to discuss this issue you make it clear you do not have a clue about the term or its application. I have tried to provide selections from the writing of Hoffer, the analysis you asked for and summaries for you but it is obvious that you are only pretending to discuss this as a ruse to attack me. Surprise surprise as Gomer Pyle used to say.

    The real question for you is why you are so hyper sensitive every time this perfectly acceptable term in political science and sociology comes up here? It has been used for over half a century now and even inspired universities to offer courses in Political Sociology using the work of Hoffer and his TRUE BELIEVER concept as part of the syllabus along with the work of Mills, Domhoff and others. But for some reason, for you, its like waving a red flag when you hear it.
    Last edited by haymarket; 05-16-11 at 11:05 PM.
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  10. #190
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    Re: Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

    Romney's biggest problem is going to be the fact that Romney-care so closely resembles Obamacare. The 10th Amendment arguments are nice, but in the end he's going to sound like he's saying "The individual mandate was a great idea when it was my idea."

    Pawlenty will appeal to some middle of the road Conservatives, but he'll have back off the fact that he once favored cap and trade. Plus his argument that he didn't raise taxes is a lie. His tirade in the SC debate about how the administration prevented jobs from moving into SC because of unions plays well there. What about the state those jobs are coming from? I bet it wouldn't play as well there.

    Personally, I think that any of these clowns has an uphill climb convincing the American people that they're up to the job. As disappointing as Obama has been, I'm still not convinced that we'd be better off under a Republican administration.

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