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Thread: Government stimulus

  1. #61
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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    The documentation I have provided shows that he did exactly that. Got any proof the economy has not improved? Have any source links to those "famous" charts of yours?
    just to be clear, you are stating that the chart that claims that unemployment "without the recovery plan" would peak at 8% was not part of the Obama administrations' push for the stimulus. ?

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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    just to be clear, you are stating that the chart that claims that unemployment "without the recovery plan" would peak at 8% was not part of the Obama administrations' push for the stimulus. ?
    Again, got a source link for that chart?
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    Re: Government stimulus

    it will be the product of about a 30 second google search. i just want to make sure that you are claiming that somehow that this chart

    does not portray the claims that were used by the Obama administration to sell the stimulus?

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    Re: Government stimulus

    while instead this



    was the reality? look at the gap between the dark blue line and the red line - that's the credibility gap of those who hawk keyensian solutions.

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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    it will be the product of about a 30 second google search.
    Let us know when you have 30 seconds then to do a search for a link to this "famous" graph of yours that means nothing. How could anyone know that the Bush Recession would have gone has high as it did? Hell, the other candidate for president didn't even know we were in a recession at all!
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  6. #66
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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Let us know when you have 30 seconds then to do a search for a link to this "famous" graph of yours that means nothing.
    it was famous. mostly it became infamous after it became obviuos how boneheadedly wrong the assumptions that went into it were.

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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    it was famous. mostly it became infamous after it became obviuos how boneheadedly wrong the assumptions that went into it were.
    Right........................ Meanwhile, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis -



    Ultimately, what you and I think doesn't matter. What matters is if the voters credit Obama next November for improving the economy over what it was when he entered the office. My guess is, given that no one is rated a strong contender against him, that he will be reelected easily. Especially since the GOP played their class war hand against the middle class and the elderly in their budget proposal.

    It will be the year of the rich against the middle class and the elderly and I'm fairly confident which groups have the greater numbers.
    Last edited by Catawba; 04-25-11 at 03:20 AM.
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  8. #68
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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Right........................
    it is right that all the keyensian assumptions that went into that chart were wrong, as demonstrated by the reality of the past two years.

    Meanwhile, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
    this is on GDP. do you ever get tired of desperately trying to change the subject?

    however, if you want to talk GDP:

    Had the U.S. economy recovered from the current recession the way it bounced back from the other 10 recessions since World War II, our per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) would be $3,553 higher than it is today, and 11.9 million more Americans would be employed...

    On average, three years after the four deepest previous recessions started, real GDP was 7.6% higher than the pre-recession level. During the Obama recovery, real GDP is up only 0.1%. Forty months after the start of the 1953, 1957, 1973 and 1981 recessions, total employment was on average 4.7% higher than the pre-recession peaks, while total employment today is still down 4.7%—that's a total employment gap of 13.9 million jobs...

    If we had matched the 1982 recovery rate, today annual per-capita income would be $4,154 higher than before the recession—that's an extra $16,600 for a family of four—and some 15.7 million more Americans would have jobs. That's enough jobs to employ 100% of the 13.5 million Americans currently classified as unemployed. In addition, we would have provided jobs for 30% of both the 2.4 million discouraged or marginally attached workers and the 4.8 million who have totally dropped out of the work force since January 2008...

    Ultimately, what you and I think doesn't matter. What matters is if the voters credit Obama next November for improving the economy over what it was when he entered the office.
    that is true, though I think that whether or not Obama is able to successfuly scare Seniors into forgeting that he, too, wants to cut Medicare will have a significant effect.

    My guess is, given that no one is rated a strong contender against him
    what? plenty of the leading Republicans are strong contenders against him, though some of our leading 'names' (Gingrich, Romney, Barbour) all have negatives attached to them as well. 52% of Americans don't believe that Obama deserves another term, which means that the Republican Candidate just has to be bland enough to make the election about the President.

    Which is why a Candidate with a strong executive governing record, a history of turning a deficit into a surplus, strong economic credentials, a history of solid medical reform that actually lowers costs, a history of appealing to independent voters, and no serious negatives would whomp Obama in the General. we are talking 1980/1984 style here.

    meet Mitch Daniels, two term Governor of Indiana:

    ...When Daniels took office, the state had an $800-million deficit. He turned that into a $1.3-billion surplus. Since 2005, he has saved roughly $450 million in the state’s budget and reduced the state’s rate of spending growth from 5.9 percent to 2.8 percent... He won re-election by 18 points last year [in 2008, when Obama carried the state]. He won 20 percent of the black vote, and beat his Democratic opponent among voters under age 30 by 7 points...


    under Daniels' Leadership, the state of Indiana demonstrated how to actually reform healthcare, with market incentives.

    ...In Indiana's HSA, the state deposits $2,750 per year into an account controlled by the employee, out of which he pays all his health bills. Indiana covers the premium for the plan. The intent is that participants will become more cost-conscious and careful about overpayment or overutilization.

    Unused funds in the account—to date some $30 million or about $2,000 per employee and growing fast—are the worker's permanent property. For the very small number of employees (about 6% last year) who use their entire account balance, the state shares further health costs up to an out-of-pocket maximum of $8,000, after which the employee is completely protected.

    The HSA option has proven highly popular. This year, over 70% of our 30,000 Indiana state workers chose it, by far the highest in public-sector America. Due to the rejection of these plans by government unions, the average use of HSAs in the public sector across the country is just 2%....

    State employees enrolled in the consumer-driven plan will save more than $8 million in 2010 compared to their coworkers in the old-fashioned preferred provider organization (PPO) alternative. In the second straight year in which we've been forced to skip salary increases, workers switching to the HSA are adding thousands of dollars to their take-home pay. (Even if an employee had health issues and incurred the maximum out-of-pocket expenses, he would still be hundreds of dollars ahead.) HSA customers seem highly satisfied; only 3% have opted to switch back to the PPO.

    The state is saving, too. In a time of severe budgetary stress, Indiana will save at least $20 million in 2010 because of our high HSA enrollment. Mercer calculates the state's total costs are being reduced by 11% solely due to the HSA option...

    Overall, participants in our new plan ran up only $65 in cost for every $100 incurred by their associates under the old coverage. Are HSA participants denying themselves needed care in order to save money? The answer, as far as the state of Indiana and Mercer Consulting can find, is no. There is no evidence HSA members are more likely to defer needed care or common-sense preventive measures such as routine physicals or mammograms.

    It turns out that, when someone is spending his own money alone for routine expenses, he is far more likely to ask the questions he would ask if purchasing any other good or service: "Is there a generic version of that drug?" "Didn't I take that same test just recently?" "Where can I get the colonoscopy at the best price?"

    By contrast, the prevalent model of health plans in this country in effect signals individuals they can buy health care on someone else's credit card. A fast-food meal costs most Americans more out of pocket than a visit to the doctor. What seems free will always be overconsumed, compared to the choices a normal consumer would make. Hence [Indiana's] immense savings...

    Especially since the GOP played their class war hand against the middle class and the elderly in their budget proposal.
    Obama and Ryan both reduce Medicare expenditures. The difference between the two is that Ryan gives the decision to seniors on where their Medicare dollars should be allocated, and adopts a plan that has been demonstrated to lower costs, starting in 2022. The President wants an unelected board of politicized bureacrats to make one-size-fits-all decisions and impose them on America's seniors by fiat starting in 2014. The Democrats this cycle will get alot of mileage out of semi-lying-semi-just-not-telling-the-truth about this.

    even Politifact (left leaning as it is) is calling the DNC on it's crap - but we will see how it all turns out.

    It will be the year of the rich against the middle class and the elderly and I'm fairly confident which groups have the greater numbers.
    it will be the year that Democrats try to turn the rich against the elderly and the old against the young. we will see how vulnerable American society is to such fracturing, and how open Americans are to being educated. if exit polling indicates that folks still think we can solve our deficit woes by cutting pork projects and foriegn aid.... then Republicans will have failed and Democrats will have won.

  9. #69
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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    it is right that all the keyensian assumptions that went into that chart were wrong, as demonstrated by the reality of the past two years.
    Phil Gramm, is that really who you just posted as your "expert?" One of the architech's of ENRON and of our Recession? Sorry, you just lost all credibility cp.
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  10. #70
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    Re: Government stimulus

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Phil Gramm, is that really who you just posted as your "expert?
    not for the chart, but he wrote the article which pointed out the differences in the basic numbers. but the numbers are public informationand available for all to see.

    what you are attempting here is the "ad hominem" fallacy; where - because you lack the ability to meet the points and facts that have been raised and seem to dispute your position - you attack the spokesman. it's the old Lawyers' rule "When the law is against you, argue the facts, when the facts are against you, argue the law, when both are against you, attack the plaintiff" in debate form.

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