View Poll Results: w will this budget affect the 2012 election?

Voters
41. You may not vote on this poll
  • It will help Obama/Democrats

    16 39.02%
  • It will help Republicans

    8 19.51%
  • Don't know

    10 24.39%
  • No change

    7 17.07%
Page 15 of 23 FirstFirst ... 51314151617 ... LastLast
Results 141 to 150 of 225

Thread: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

  1. #141
    Student
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Last Seen
    04-11-17 @ 11:30 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    275

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Amazed View Post
    He has no illusions that it will get through...what it does do however is force Obama out into the open...and we've already seen this.

    No Republican Budget can get though until at least 2012.
    From all the quotes I have seen from Ryan, I have to disagree with you that he has no illusion that some variation of his budget won't get through Congress. The numbers may look slightly different, but in principle it will be based around his ideas.

    I do agree with you that this helps frame the debate around the what Republicans view as an ideal plan. In hindsight what President Obama should have done is embrace the Debt Commission's plan regardless of if it garnered the necessary votes and push that as the starting point. Instead now everybody is using Ryan's plan as that baseline.

    Technically, no Republican budget will be able to be signed into law until 2013. Even then that depends on winning the presidency, maintaining their hold on the House, and gaining a substantial numbers of seats in the Senate. Getting all three is doubtful in my opinion.

    For anyone that supports Ryan's plan I do have one question. How will adding elderly to private insurance decrease the cost of health care insurance? From what I have see from insurance companies they are already worried about their ability to make a profit if they need to insure the elderly, the costliest group to insure. If that is indeed the case, then what is stopping insurance companies from just raising the costs of everybody's insurance premiums to cover the money they most likely will lose from insuring the elderly?

  2. #142
    Sage
    cpwill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    USofA
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:35 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    57,123

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Spaceman_Spiff View Post
    From all the quotes I have seen from Ryan, I have to disagree with you that he has no illusion that some variation of his budget won't get through Congress. The numbers may look slightly different, but in principle it will be based around his ideas.

    I do agree with you that this helps frame the debate around the what Republicans view as an ideal plan. In hindsight what President Obama should have done is embrace the Debt Commission's plan regardless of if it garnered the necessary votes and push that as the starting point. Instead now everybody is using Ryan's plan as that baseline.
    that is absolutely correct. there were alot of Republicans who didn't Like, but were willing to Go Along With the debt reduction commissions plan. it would have been bipartisan unhappiness, but a deal that saved the nation.

    now the only adult option on the table is the Ryan plan. which would be great if it went through - it's a better plan i think in several regards. but given it's political unplausibility (in today's climate at least), the Bowles-Simpson plan was our best shot.

    but what did Nancy Pelosi call it? "Dead On Arrival". Hey Dems, really good decision keeping that nutjob in power. :thumbsup:

    Technically, no Republican budget will be able to be signed into law until 2013. Even then that depends on winning the presidency, maintaining their hold on the House, and gaining a substantial numbers of seats in the Senate. Getting all three is doubtful in my opinion.
    I think the House and the Senate are pretty sure things at this point, given the numbers. the white house is the main coin toss.

    For anyone that supports Ryan's plan I do have one question. How will adding elderly to private insurance decrease the cost of health care insurance?
    because it flips the payment model. image for a second that you didn't have to pay for gas - your insurance company took care of it. would you really care what the price at the pump was? would you drive around looking for cheaper stations? would you get the medium or low grade gasoline? would you take extra care to purchase a fuel-efficient vehicle? generally no, you would do none of these things, which would drive up the demand for gas, which would drive up the price. that's the condition of the health care market for the past 50 years, and it's why prices have skyrocketed - because we aren't letting supply and demand function properly.

    MIT economist Amy Finkelstein's research suggests that Medicare's 1965 creation led to market-wide changes that explain about half of the increase in real per capita health spending between 1950 and 1990. Premium Support would be just as consequential in reverse, which is why Economists from the center-left to center-right have been recommending premium support for decades, and some version has since been endorsed by everyone from President Clinton's 1999 Medicare commission, chaired by Democrat John Breaux, to Bob Dole and Tom Daschle in 2009. And then, again, of course, there was the bi-partisan Ryan-Rivlin plan that came out of that Debt Commission.

    so what we have here is bipartisan agreement that premium support would be an excellent way to reform Medicare, and would have a depressing effect on healthcare costs...... right up until the point where someone actually proposes it..... at which point his opponents (who, 30 seconds ago, were on board) sense an opportunity for political gain, and start screaming about grandmothers dying in the snow.

  3. #143
    Sage
    cpwill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    USofA
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:35 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    57,123

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    No one is saying revenue is affected(that is tax neutrality), but some people are going to have their tax bill change as a result of this. That is what we are discussing.
    yes, but those changes are generally within the brackets. so, some wealthy will see their tax bill decline, others (looking at you, G.E.) will see theirs increase; dependent upon to what extent they took advantage of available tax breaks.

    but going from that to lambasting "tax cuts for the wealthy" is disinegenious (not saying you are doing it, saying it's a general trend).

    If you are paying less in taxes, you got a tax cut. Some people will inevitably have gotten a tax cut from this plan, and some people have inevitably gotten a tax increase.
    so are we going to scream about tax cuts for John Winthrop III, Esq. but cheer tax hikes for his brother, James?

  4. #144
    Educator
    Amazed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    North of Dorothy's Home.
    Last Seen
    04-30-15 @ 10:53 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    1,001

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    I said not intil 2012...it cannot.

    Dems hold the Senate and the WH...it cannot happen yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spaceman_Spiff View Post
    From all the quotes I have seen from Ryan, I have to disagree with you that he has no illusion that some variation of his budget won't get through Congress. The numbers may look slightly different, but in principle it will be based around his ideas.

    I do agree with you that this helps frame the debate around the what Republicans view as an ideal plan. In hindsight what President Obama should have done is embrace the Debt Commission's plan regardless of if it garnered the necessary votes and push that as the starting point. Instead now everybody is using Ryan's plan as that baseline.

    Technically, no Republican budget will be able to be signed into law until 2013. Even then that depends on winning the presidency, maintaining their hold on the House, and gaining a substantial numbers of seats in the Senate. Getting all three is doubtful in my opinion.

    For anyone that supports Ryan's plan I do have one question. How will adding elderly to private insurance decrease the cost of health care insurance? From what I have see from insurance companies they are already worried about their ability to make a profit if they need to insure the elderly, the costliest group to insure. If that is indeed the case, then what is stopping insurance companies from just raising the costs of everybody's insurance premiums to cover the money they most likely will lose from insuring the elderly?
    Obama is NOT 50 feet tall, he is ONE inch deep.
    Mark Levin

  5. #145
    Educator
    Amazed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    North of Dorothy's Home.
    Last Seen
    04-30-15 @ 10:53 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    1,001

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    then what is stopping insurance companies from just raising the costs of everybody's insurance premiums to cover the money they most likely will lose from insuring the elderly?

    That is EXACTLY what would happen, it's what happens now.

    The MA plans that were orrignally approved were too costly to the Gov....and there has been a recent shifting of the burden because of that....a HUGE can of worms has been opened through this thing....end of life care is where EVERYTHING stacks up....don't kid yourself about "Death Panels" they are real.....but they are hidden under a euphemsm....."Quality Of Life Index".
    Obama is NOT 50 feet tall, he is ONE inch deep.
    Mark Levin

  6. #146
    Student
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Last Seen
    04-11-17 @ 11:30 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    275

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    that is absolutely correct. there were a lot of Republicans who didn't Like, but were willing to Go Along With the debt reduction commissions plan. it would have been bipartisan unhappiness, but a deal that saved the nation.

    now the only adult option on the table is the Ryan plan. which would be great if it went through - it's a better plan i think in several regards. but given its political implausibility (in today's climate at least), the Bowles-Simpson plan was our best shot.

    but what did Nancy Pelosi call it? "Dead On Arrival". Hey Dems, really good decision keeping that nutjob in power. :thumbsup:
    Normally I would say that Nancy Pelosi is an effective politician, but this is a situation where she clearly missed the mark. The writing was on the wall that the United States needs to reform its social programs and she totally missed it. Now that allows Republicans a better ability to steer the debates how they see fit.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I think the House and the Senate are pretty sure things at this point, given the numbers. the white house is the main coin toss.
    Right now it is too early to say for certain how each chamber of Congress will fall. I do think that the Republicans will regain the Senate just on the merit that such a large portion of seats are incumbent Democrats. I do not think it will be a super majority that allows to push through a bill that changes things as drastically as the Ryan bill would. Also factor in redistricting and it will be a presidential election, it is anybody's guess how everything will turn out this early.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    because it flips the payment model. image for a second that you didn't have to pay for gas - your insurance company took care of it. would you really care what the price at the pump was? would you drive around looking for cheaper stations? would you get the medium or low grade gasoline? would you take extra care to purchase a fuel-efficient vehicle? generally no, you would do none of these things, which would drive up the demand for gas, which would drive up the price. that's the condition of the health care market for the past 50 years, and it's why prices have skyrocketed - because we aren't letting supply and demand function properly.

    MIT economist Amy Finkelstein's research suggests that Medicare's 1965 creation led to market-wide changes that explain about half of the increase in real per capita health spending between 1950 and 1990. Premium Support would be just as consequential in reverse, which is why Economists from the center-left to center-right have been recommending premium support for decades, and some version has since been endorsed by everyone from President Clinton's 1999 Medicare commission, chaired by Democrat John Breaux, to Bob Dole and Tom Daschle in 2009. And then, again, of course, there was the bi-partisan Ryan-Rivlin plan that came out of that Debt Commission.

    so what we have here is bipartisan agreement that premium support would be an excellent way to reform Medicare, and would have a depressing effect on healthcare costs...... right up until the point where someone actually proposes it..... at which point his opponents (who, 30 seconds ago, were on board) sense an opportunity for political gain, and start screaming about grandmothers dying in the snow.
    I understand your argument that citizens will become more cost conscious if they see the full cost of their care. I just don't buy that this is going to cause the price of health care to decline because of increased competition. I could see this working with elective procedures, but nobody will care what the costs are for a necessary surgery, just that it's done and done well. If that's the case, then your hope of supply and demand being a means to decrease health care costs are rendered useless.

    The problem I have is that this will not have a substantial effect on the cost of insurance that will make it attractive for insurance companies to insure the elderly at a moderate cost. For example, I am a dream candidate for insurance companies because I am in my mid 20s and over the last eight years have maybe at most spent $1,500 on health care. Contrast that with my grandfather, who over the last five years of his life experienced multiple heart attacks that necessitated an angioplasty and multiple strokes that eventually killed him. All of the related costs probably totaled conservatively $250,000. Under Ryan's plan any company that chooses to participate will have to cover my grandfather. The worst case scenario I envision is that insurance companies will find that insuring the elderly will not be profitable and en masse will choose not to participate in the exchanges, leaving the government to insure them. We would be back to where we are if that were to happen.

    Another problem I have not seen anyone discuss is an elderly person's ability to buy health insurance. Let's be honest, there's a reason why the elderly are the most attractive targets for scam artists. If they all of a sudden had to buy health insurance I would not be comfortable with setting them free to negotiate costs with companies that are far from pinnacles of ethical behavior. It is akin to letting the wolves watch the sheep.

    Finally, I don't like that this theoretical change doesn't take place until 2022. Congressman Ryan likes to talk about shared sacrifice, but then exempts everybody over the age of 55 from experiencing the pain. I understand why Ryan has done this, both the practical and political, but if our country is going to make this change I would rather see it be done in one fell swoop rather than have what will become two health care systems. Had Ryan proposed that then I would gladly admit that he had guts.

    Despite all of those misgivings I am still open to the basic ideas behind the reform. Given that commentators and several members have even confused the budget proposal with his Roadmap for America, there is a lot of bad information out there. I personally want to wait until all the details are in place before I make a final decision about whether or not I would support Ryan's plan. Still something like Australia's health care system is my ideal reform, but that is a non-starter for Republicans.

  7. #147
    Equal Opportunity Hater
    obvious Child's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    0.0, -2.3 on the Political Compass
    Last Seen
    12-09-14 @ 11:36 PM
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    19,883

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Barbbtx View Post
    Ryans bill takes money from the old, the disabled, the autistic children and gives it to the rich.
    How is that false? Ryan's bill systematically reduces the payments for healthcare to the old and disabled while tying the amounts to the regular CPI while the healthcare CPI is often double, triple or even quadriple the inflation rate. At the same time the massive cuts to Medicare and Medicaid are traded for large tax cuts. Based on some projections, Ryan's tax cuts are barely covered by the spending cuts resulting in virtually no deficit or debt reduction for years.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

  8. #148
    Student
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Last Seen
    04-11-17 @ 11:30 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    275

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Amazed View Post
    I said not until 2012...it cannot.

    Dems hold the Senate and the WH...it cannot happen yet.
    I know what you said. I was merely correcting your statement that the Ryan plan won't be able to pass until 2012 because it is wrong. Any politician elected in 2012, be it a congressman or the president, will not be sworn in until 2013. If all things go their way, Republicans could then push for reform.

  9. #149
    Sage
    cpwill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    USofA
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:35 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    57,123

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Quote Originally Posted by Spaceman_Spiff View Post
    Normally I would say that Nancy Pelosi is an effective politician, but this is a situation where she clearly missed the mark. The writing was on the wall that the United States needs to reform its social programs and she totally missed it. Now that allows Republicans a better ability to steer the debates how they see fit.
    i see it as a natural outgrowth of her worldview - similar to the claim that the earthquake would be good for Haiti because it destroyed so much. It's insane, yes, but that's what you get when you have insane assumptions.

    Right now it is too early to say for certain how each chamber of Congress will fall. I do think that the Republicans will regain the Senate just on the merit that such a large portion of seats are incumbent Democrats. I do not think it will be a super majority that allows to push through a bill that changes things as drastically as the Ryan bill would.
    i agree.

    I understand your argument that citizens will become more cost conscious if they see the full cost of their care. I just don't buy that this is going to cause the price of health care to decline because of increased competition.
    why do you think that it would somehow be different for healthcare than it is for every other good on the market? the claim that "some healthcare is necessary, and that's why it's not subject to market pressure" isn't matched by experience. Food is also necessary, as is housing, yet each of these goods is subject to market pressures because there are still multiple providers.

    Medicare D, for example (which functions very similarly to the premium support plan) put market pressure on healthcare spending, and came in 40% under budget. 40%! has any government program in the history of man ever done that?

    In Indiana, the adoption of HSA's (which also put market pressure on healthcare spending) has led to an 11% decrease in costs.

    The problem I have is that this will not have a substantial effect on the cost of insurance that will make it attractive for insurance companies to insure the elderly at a moderate cost.
    sure it will. the plans will simply tend to be high-deductible, catastrophic coverage ones.

    which has already been demonstrated to drive down healthcare costs and is how health insurance should look anyway. it's a screwup in our tax code that gave us our current idiocy of a system. it's like expecting your auto insurance to fill up your gas tank.



    Finally, I don't like that this theoretical change doesn't take place until 2022. Congressman Ryan likes to talk about shared sacrifice, but then exempts everybody over the age of 55 from experiencing the pain. I understand why Ryan has done this, both the practical and political, but if our country is going to make this change I would rather see it be done in one fell swoop rather than have what will become two health care systems. Had Ryan proposed that then I would gladly admit that he had guts.
    you think this proposal, which wide majorities of even tea partiers oppose isnt' gutsy? and you think that he cuts too much, but then are upset that he doesn't do it early enough?

    waiting until 2022 is smart because it allows Americans to plan. your grandfather won't be effected - but your dad will know that needs to be ready for the new program, and can make adjustments accordingly so that he is taken care of.

    Despite all of those misgivings I am still open to the basic ideas behind the reform. Given that commentators and several members have even confused the budget proposal with his Roadmap for America, there is a lot of bad information out there.
    that is certainly true.

    I personally want to wait until all the details are in place before I make a final decision about whether or not I would support Ryan's plan. Still something like Australia's health care system is my ideal reform, but that is a non-starter for Republicans.
    True enough.

  10. #150
    Sage
    lpast's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Fla
    Last Seen
    05-21-16 @ 10:12 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    13,565

    Re: The Ryan/Republican Budget - 2012 elections

    Paul Ryans Fuzzy Math a page out of Rahm Emmanuals Playbook always make a crisis seem worse to give the RICHEST another tax cut.


    Rep. Paul Ryan’s claim that Medicare will be "bankrupt in nine years" goes too far. The trust fund that primarily supports one part of Medicare is projected to be exhausted come 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees said it might not actually happen until 2029. That still doesn’t mean the system will be "bankrupt," though.


    Ryan’s Muddy Medicare Claims | FactCheck.org

Page 15 of 23 FirstFirst ... 51314151617 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •