View Poll Results: Is Palin's political career over?

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    8 25.81%
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Thread: Is Palin's political career over?

  1. #21
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by StillBallin75 View Post
    I like you Zyph, but I gotta disagree.

    McCain = bungled Presidential bid?
    Palin = not a horrible VP pick?

    I think you have your roles reversed.
    Absolutely. And I've made this case on the forums a few times but since I know you're relatively new I don't mind regoing over it.

    McCain was flailing during the Campaign. The past 8 years he had been angering the conservative base, and he continued to do so often during the Primaries. However, upon the start of the Presidential campaign he suddenly tried to start acting as "Joe Conservative", trying hard to steer back towards the right and regrab his base. It was failing massively as people saw it, correctly imho, as phony.

    On the flip side, Independents and Moderate Democrats...long thought to be the "strength" of McCain...were watching it and becoming disgusted by it. The person they thought previously at the very least had integrity and stuck to his guns was suddenly pandering to the other side. On top of that he seemed to hav abandoned much of the moderate, compromising, middle of the road language he was known and liked for. Combining that with the appeal of Obama to Independents, a group that likely has the most "casual" observers of the three sides, and to Democrats and you had a situation where McCain was doing far worse than expected with Moderates.

    Going into the conventions McCain was hurting in the polls. He had lagged behind Obama for some time, had little momentum, and was hurting in the intangible arena of "message" to Obama's Hope and Change and his "historic" identity.

    Going into the DNC Obama had an averaged +1.4 over McCain. By conventions end it bounced to +3.9. Typically a bounce continues for a bit after the convention. However, the Palin announcement actually stuck it at +3.9 and then trended it downwards to 3.4 till the first large waves of attacks began. Between the residual bounce, the negative press due to Republican reaction to Gustav, and the beginning attacks on Palin the Republicans went into the convention with Obama +6.4 in the polls. A number that likely would've been higher if not for the Palin announcement, which gave the only opposite movement of the polls from the start of the DNC to the start of the RNC.

    By the end of the RNC the Republican Bounce took it back down to +2.6 for Obama. By four days out, similar to Obama's, it had became McCain up +2.4.

    A few things to take away from this. The DNC bounced Obama 2.2 points during, 4.7 total. The RNC bounced McCain 3.8 points during, and 9.3 for the total. Another interesting note, the bounce for Obama's speech was a 1 point bounce where Palin's night bounce 1.4 (though Guilliani did speak prior to her that day).

    Prior to the two conventions the Republican base was not excited. Donations were low. Motivation was low. Yet amazingly by the end of the convention the base seemed far more energized, far more interested, and the general public was far more positive towards McCain. I ask you, what was it that changed between the start of convention season and the end of convention season?

    Sarah Palin.

    In Palin McCain had someone that excited his base. A person with seemingly strong conservative credentials and seemed decent at articulating it in the little the base had heard her speak. Someone that, like Obama, they could see a potential future in for the party which gave them a reason to be excited. Look back at stories and records at that time and you'll see that the GOP documented a significant increase in donations and interest in the campaigns after her announcement. What it also gave them was someone who helped to counter act a bit of the message edge that Obama had in theory. Suddenly McCain's campaign was no longer just the same typical white guy going up against a historic candidate, but had an element of history as well. No longer was it just an old out of touch guy going up against a young and charismatic candidate, but was instilled with youth, charisma, and enthusiasm as well.

    Sarah Palin was a great choice.

    Then came the bungel.

    The first bungel is apparently when they made the choice. The McCain campaign should've been searching for, vetting, and picking a VP candidate from the start of this whole thing. If they had vetted Palin at all they would've realized she was not ready quite yet for the national media. Which would've meant she either needed to be picked early and not announced publicly, giving her a month or so unknown to study up. OR they should've realized it would've been too much work and gone another direction. Instead, by all accounts, they chose her rather late in the process. That's on them, not on Palin.

    This led to the next bungel, keeping her from the media for the first little bit. Now, it was a necessitiy because she wasn't ready. However, she wasn't ready due to bungle #1 up above. This then, correctly, led to attacks on her being "protected" or "sheltered" and just immedietely gave fuel for the media without any real way to counter it. Not smart.

    Bungle #3, and the biggest bungle in my mind, was where they went from there. It shouldn't have taken a genius to know Palin wasn't going to massively appeal to the middle. That wasn't even her point. To say she was supposed to appeal to the middle is like saying that a basketball is meant to be hit with a baseball bat. Her use was motivating, exciting, and encouraging the base because they were completely disinterested in McCain. Without an energized base you stand no hope of ever winning a national election. And in that, they did act correctly...they let her go out, say the right things, and court the support and excitement of conservatives.

    What they bungled at...and due to the damage already done it would've been a hard sell anyways...was what they had McCain do. Steadfast ideological candidates bring on Moderate VP's to try and win over independents to a campaign thinking that the Prez will pick people not just on ideology. On the flip side, if you pick an ideological VP then your Prez needs to be reaching to the middle. McCain was known best as a moderate guy and his phoney baloney "Joe Conservative" act was not being bought by almost anyone in the base. His best strategic act here, after Palins nomination, would have been to drop the act and run screaming back to the middle trying to woo at least some independents back to his side. As I said, difficult based on his earlier actions, but at least it would've added SOMETHING to the campaign.

    Instead, McCain continued to try and be Joe Conservative, continued trying to paint him and Palin alike rather than as complimentary pieces, and continued to try and puff up his Republican credentials. Essentially, he was pandering to the same voting crowd as Palin but doing a worse job at it, which didn't really help anything.

    Due to this, McCain lost more independents that were turned off by the VP pick and had no reason to stay with that side since McCain wasn't even presenting himself as a moderate. However, as I said he was already hurting in Independents from the fact they largely were swinging Obama from the start.

    I think that had McCain's camp made the choice earlier, giving Palin time while unknown to study up so she could come on the scene ready day one, and then properly had McCain push his Moderate credentials while using Palin to sway the base that the election would've been far closer.

    I also think that if McCain had nominated others people suggested, like Joe Lieberman, that instead of a large defeat he likely would've been handed a Mondale type loss. McCain/Lieberman, with McCain playing Joe Conservative and Lieberman being...well lieberman...is not something I think would've swayed many Independents or Democrats away from Obama while at the same time would've completely deflated the base. Instead of having a relatively strong base and weak independents, McCain would've likely instead had a weak base and a mildly weak independents.

    Palin helped propel McCain into the positives with polls for the first time in quite some time. She helped generate a great deal of money, excitement, and votes from within the base. And she gave McCain the chance to be himself and try to appeal to his normal constituency.

    Palin wasn't a perfect pick, but she was far from a bad pick, and likely caused the Election to actually be closer than it had been with some of the other suggested names that had floated around at the time.

  2. #22
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by liblady View Post
    she was a desperation pick.
    As I stated above, with the way they apparently picked her, I absolutely agree....

    that's a bungle on the McCain camps part, not hers. She was a good pick, picked in the wrong fashion, and then used poorly in a larger campaign scope after that.

  3. #23
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    as long as she can keep the left busy crapping themselves and screaming about how much she sucks...it's all good.
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  4. #24
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Absolutely. And I've made this case on the forums a few times but since I know you're relatively new I don't mind regoing over it.

    McCain was flailing during the Campaign. The past 8 years he had been angering the conservative base, and he continued to do so often during the Primaries. However, upon the start of the Presidential campaign he suddenly tried to start acting as "Joe Conservative", trying hard to steer back towards the right and regrab his base. It was failing massively as people saw it, correctly imho, as phony.

    On the flip side, Independents and Moderate Democrats...long thought to be the "strength" of McCain...were watching it and becoming disgusted by it. The person they thought previously at the very least had integrity and stuck to his guns was suddenly pandering to the other side. On top of that he seemed to hav abandoned much of the moderate, compromising, middle of the road language he was known and liked for. Combining that with the appeal of Obama to Independents, a group that likely has the most "casual" observers of the three sides, and to Democrats and you had a situation where McCain was doing far worse than expected with Moderates.

    Going into the conventions McCain was hurting in the polls. He had lagged behind Obama for some time, had little momentum, and was hurting in the intangible arena of "message" to Obama's Hope and Change and his "historic" identity.

    Going into the DNC Obama had an averaged +1.4 over McCain. By conventions end it bounced to +3.9. Typically a bounce continues for a bit after the convention. However, the Palin announcement actually stuck it at +3.9 and then trended it downwards to 3.4 till the first large waves of attacks began. Between the residual bounce, the negative press due to Republican reaction to Gustav, and the beginning attacks on Palin the Republicans went into the convention with Obama +6.4 in the polls. A number that likely would've been higher if not for the Palin announcement, which gave the only opposite movement of the polls from the start of the DNC to the start of the RNC.

    By the end of the RNC the Republican Bounce took it back down to +2.6 for Obama. By four days out, similar to Obama's, it had became McCain up +2.4.

    A few things to take away from this. The DNC bounced Obama 2.2 points during, 4.7 total. The RNC bounced McCain 3.8 points during, and 9.3 for the total. Another interesting note, the bounce for Obama's speech was a 1 point bounce where Palin's night bounce 1.4 (though Guilliani did speak prior to her that day).

    Prior to the two conventions the Republican base was not excited. Donations were low. Motivation was low. Yet amazingly by the end of the convention the base seemed far more energized, far more interested, and the general public was far more positive towards McCain. I ask you, what was it that changed between the start of convention season and the end of convention season?

    Sarah Palin.

    In Palin McCain had someone that excited his base. A person with seemingly strong conservative credentials and seemed decent at articulating it in the little the base had heard her speak. Someone that, like Obama, they could see a potential future in for the party which gave them a reason to be excited. Look back at stories and records at that time and you'll see that the GOP documented a significant increase in donations and interest in the campaigns after her announcement. What it also gave them was someone who helped to counter act a bit of the message edge that Obama had in theory. Suddenly McCain's campaign was no longer just the same typical white guy going up against a historic candidate, but had an element of history as well. No longer was it just an old out of touch guy going up against a young and charismatic candidate, but was instilled with youth, charisma, and enthusiasm as well.

    Sarah Palin was a great choice.

    Then came the bungel.

    The first bungel is apparently when they made the choice. The McCain campaign should've been searching for, vetting, and picking a VP candidate from the start of this whole thing. If they had vetted Palin at all they would've realized she was not ready quite yet for the national media. Which would've meant she either needed to be picked early and not announced publicly, giving her a month or so unknown to study up. OR they should've realized it would've been too much work and gone another direction. Instead, by all accounts, they chose her rather late in the process. That's on them, not on Palin.

    This led to the next bungel, keeping her from the media for the first little bit. Now, it was a necessitiy because she wasn't ready. However, she wasn't ready due to bungle #1 up above. This then, correctly, led to attacks on her being "protected" or "sheltered" and just immedietely gave fuel for the media without any real way to counter it. Not smart.

    Bungle #3, and the biggest bungle in my mind, was where they went from there. It shouldn't have taken a genius to know Palin wasn't going to massively appeal to the middle. That wasn't even her point. To say she was supposed to appeal to the middle is like saying that a basketball is meant to be hit with a baseball bat. Her use was motivating, exciting, and encouraging the base because they were completely disinterested in McCain. Without an energized base you stand no hope of ever winning a national election. And in that, they did act correctly...they let her go out, say the right things, and court the support and excitement of conservatives.

    What they bungled at...and due to the damage already done it would've been a hard sell anyways...was what they had McCain do. Steadfast ideological candidates bring on Moderate VP's to try and win over independents to a campaign thinking that the Prez will pick people not just on ideology. On the flip side, if you pick an ideological VP then your Prez needs to be reaching to the middle. McCain was known best as a moderate guy and his phoney baloney "Joe Conservative" act was not being bought by almost anyone in the base. His best strategic act here, after Palins nomination, would have been to drop the act and run screaming back to the middle trying to woo at least some independents back to his side. As I said, difficult based on his earlier actions, but at least it would've added SOMETHING to the campaign.

    Instead, McCain continued to try and be Joe Conservative, continued trying to paint him and Palin alike rather than as complimentary pieces, and continued to try and puff up his Republican credentials. Essentially, he was pandering to the same voting crowd as Palin but doing a worse job at it, which didn't really help anything.

    Due to this, McCain lost more independents that were turned off by the VP pick and had no reason to stay with that side since McCain wasn't even presenting himself as a moderate. However, as I said he was already hurting in Independents from the fact they largely were swinging Obama from the start.

    I think that had McCain's camp made the choice earlier, giving Palin time while unknown to study up so she could come on the scene ready day one, and then properly had McCain push his Moderate credentials while using Palin to sway the base that the election would've been far closer.

    I also think that if McCain had nominated others people suggested, like Joe Lieberman, that instead of a large defeat he likely would've been handed a Mondale type loss. McCain/Lieberman, with McCain playing Joe Conservative and Lieberman being...well lieberman...is not something I think would've swayed many Independents or Democrats away from Obama while at the same time would've completely deflated the base. Instead of having a relatively strong base and weak independents, McCain would've likely instead had a weak base and a mildly weak independents.

    Palin helped propel McCain into the positives with polls for the first time in quite some time. She helped generate a great deal of money, excitement, and votes from within the base. And she gave McCain the chance to be himself and try to appeal to his normal constituency.

    Palin wasn't a perfect pick, but she was far from a bad pick, and likely caused the Election to actually be closer than it had been with some of the other suggested names that had floated around at the time.
    I disagree, but I think you've elaborated enough on your position and backed it up with a decent enough argument that I respect your opinion a lot.

    Thanks, SB.
    Nobody who wins a war indulges in a bifurcated definition of victory. War is a political act; victory and defeat have meaning only in political terms. A country incapable of achieving its political objectives at an acceptable cost is losing the war, regardless of battlefield events.

    Bifurcating victory (e.g. winning militarily, losing politically) is a useful salve for defeated armies. The "stab in the back" narrative helped take the sting out of failure for German generals after WWI and their American counterparts after Vietnam.

    All the same, it's nonsense. To paraphrase Vince Lombardi, show me a political loser, and I'll show you a loser.
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by StillBallin75 View Post
    I disagree, but I think you've elaborated enough on your position and backed it up with a decent enough argument that I respect your opinion a lot.

    Thanks, SB.
    NP. I don't think that its completely off the wall for people to think she may've been a bad pick, or likely hurt him. I do have problems with people who state it as if its an unquestionable, undisputable, without a doubt fact. Specifically, those of either of the two I just listed who state it with little to no real facts backing up their suggestion....or using polls or peoples feelings about her from months to years AFTER the fact rather than accurately and honestly looking at information, atmosphere, and numbers from the actual campaign season.

    Its one of those topics that irks at me, because I'm actually the living example of why it isn't exactly accurate. Right now I'm someone that's not a big Palin fan, would likely not vote Republican if she was the candidate, and in general disagree with a lot of her actions. Yet, the reason I voted in the 2008 election for the Republican ticket was largely due to her. I had a long discussion over PM's with WI Crippler why the pick excited me and got me interested in the election when prior to it I was extremely disinterested from an active stand point and rather disappointed. If it had been a Lieberman or a Graham as the VP pick I would've voted 3rd party or likely not voted. If it was a Romney or Guilliani type that just seemed more of the same I probably wouldn't have voted for the ticket either. Palin was primarily what got me to the polls and more than that got me actively talking about and pushing the ticket leading up to the election.

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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    NP. I don't think that its completely off the wall for people to think she may've been a bad pick, or likely hurt him. I do have problems with people who state it as if its an unquestionable, undisputable, without a doubt fact. Specifically, those of either of the two I just listed who state it with little to no real facts backing up their suggestion....or using polls or peoples feelings about her from months to years AFTER the fact rather than accurately and honestly looking at information, atmosphere, and numbers from the actual campaign season.
    In that case I'd have to repeat my question from post #15, if you were McCain's advisor in 2008 which potential running mate do you think would have been the best choice?
    Nobody who wins a war indulges in a bifurcated definition of victory. War is a political act; victory and defeat have meaning only in political terms. A country incapable of achieving its political objectives at an acceptable cost is losing the war, regardless of battlefield events.

    Bifurcating victory (e.g. winning militarily, losing politically) is a useful salve for defeated armies. The "stab in the back" narrative helped take the sting out of failure for German generals after WWI and their American counterparts after Vietnam.

    All the same, it's nonsense. To paraphrase Vince Lombardi, show me a political loser, and I'll show you a loser.
    - Colonel Paul Yingling

  7. #27
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    I have two opinions: one - she most likely is indeed toast. She was destroyed by her own excesses, namely the cross hairs gun sights and the connection with the assassination attempt in Arizona. She will forever be damaged goods.

    Having said that, she has one chance and only one chance to still get the nomination. She must go full speed balls-to-the-walls and enlist all the various tea party extremists to her cause and let it be known that she is the GOP choice for prez or its third party for her. If she can mount a full blown 100% effort starting very soon, she just might be able to pull out the nomination. However, if she plays coy or attempts to finesse anything with any effort less than what I have described, she is indeed toast.
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by OscarB63 View Post
    as long as she can keep the left busy crapping themselves and screaming about how much she sucks...it's all good.
    She will not bother. Palin cares only about Palin. She is one of the most selfish and greedy people I have ever seen on the political scene. Her instincts are those of a cheap street hooker who always knows what she has to do for the money and is scheming for a way to cheat everybody around her to end up with an even larger cut of the swag. She could not care less about attacking the left unless it benefits her with the nomination.
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  9. #29
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    NP. I don't think that its completely off the wall for people to think she may've been a bad pick, or likely hurt him. I do have problems with people who state it as if its an unquestionable, undisputable, without a doubt fact. Specifically, those of either of the two I just listed who state it with little to no real facts backing up their suggestion....or using polls or peoples feelings about her from months to years AFTER the fact rather than accurately and honestly looking at information, atmosphere, and numbers from the actual campaign season.
    She helped him, and she hurt him... She helped him with the based, but she hurt him with moderates and independents.. She also offended a lot of Hillary supporters who were threatening to vote McCain.

    Remember when Palin always praised Hillary in her speeches, especially in that first speech when McCain announced the pick? I guess he thought she'd bring in the Hillary voters, but she didn't...

  10. #30
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    Re: Is Palin's political career over?

    Quote Originally Posted by SheWolf View Post
    She helped him, and she hurt him... She helped him with the based, but she hurt him with moderates and independents.. She also offended a lot of Hillary supporters who were threatening to vote McCain.
    McCain was hurting significantly with the base, and wasn't doing great with moderates at the time. He had to get someone that would please the base or he was doomed for a Mondale like loss most likely. To get someone the base was happy with it was going to be someone that was staunchly conservative. Someone staunchly conservative, be it Palin or someone else, was going to annoy independents. McCain's best choice was to pick someone to motivate the base and HE move to the middle...because it was obvious he wasn't going to excite the base.

    Seriously, what potential VP candidate from the 2008 time period would've excited the base but not caused problems with moderates?

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