View Poll Results: Do you believe Pelosi about Foodstamps and Unemployment?

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  • Pelosi is 100% correct

    8 22.22%
  • Pelosi is playing politics

    5 13.89%
  • Pelosi is 100% incorrect

    8 22.22%
  • Pelosi should go play in a mine field

    13 36.11%
  • Rutabaga

    2 5.56%
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Thread: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

  1. #111
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Certainly
    right. so. government alterations to market incentives caused demand to grow far beyond savings. yes?

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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    As I said, debt had been rising steadily for years. Why not a gradual crash? Why did it happen so suddenly?
    Why not?

    When things become unstable (as excessive debt levels usually are) events can happen extremely quickly. The World Trade center took years to build, but collapsed in a matter of seconds when just a small portion of its structure collapsed.

    If the structure was more stable ( less leverage) unexpected events would cause less instability, lowering the risk for catastrophic events. You also can not forget the human factor when it comes to economics. Mass panics do occur in many areas of human interaction. ( See bridge stampede in Cambodia a week or so ago). A mass panic when it comes to economic events can lead to the instability as people forget rational decision making. They can make the same errors on the upside as well
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  3. #113
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    right. so. government alterations to market incentives caused demand to grow far beyond savings. yes?
    Not caused, encouraged

    It was the individual decisions that caused it. Those decisions were influence by government alterations
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  4. #114
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Not caused, encouraged

    It was the individual decisions that caused it. Those decisions were influence by government alterations
    right so.

    explain to me again how if we are in trouble because we have allowed demand to outstrip savings, that the solution is to continue to artificially prop up demand?

  5. #115
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    that is definitely true. odd, isn't it, that periods of high government deficit spending and debt seem so tied to periods of economic morass?



    No, that was first Harding and then Roosevelt's gift to us.
    Only if you ignore the years previous to the economic crisis ( ie the proximate cause of the crisis in the first place

    Things just dont happen

    An economic crisis, just does not happen out of the blue. It has causes that lead up to the crisis. In Japan it was the massive bubble in the stock market, the propery market, that when bursting caused a massive economic slowdown as wealth was destroyed and debt to assets increased. The boom times during a bubble make those times seem good (1920's, Japan in the 80s, the US in the 90s etc). Those economic periods are not examples of economic strenght, but of economic folly. Give a 15 year old girl a credit card and she will live the high life, and all will seem good untill the bills come due. To state the problems started when the bill comes due is idiotic, the problems started when the bill was being rung up, not after

    The 20s, Japan in the 80s the US, UK, Ireland, Iceland, the Baltics etc all rung up high credit card bills during the 2000's and life seemed good, Now the bill comes due, and life sucks. The problem is not that the bill came due, but that it was rung up in the first place
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  6. #116
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    right so.

    explain to me again how if we are in trouble because we have allowed demand to outstrip savings, that the solution is to continue to artificially prop up demand?
    And this is the disconnect

    It is not a solution of course. It is a way to minimize the pain, instead of making the pain a massive shock to the system causing the entire system to be bed ridden for a short period of time, it allows for the system to function, albit at a reduced rate for an extended period of time

    The choices being a massive collapse with untold suffering, that is relatively short lived

    Or a moderate collapse with managable suffering that lasts for an extended period of time

    In any case untill the debt is worked through, economic growth will be stunted
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  7. #117
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Why not?

    When things become unstable (as excessive debt levels usually are) events can happen extremely quickly. The World Trade center took years to build, but collapsed in a matter of seconds when just a small portion of its structure collapsed.
    Economies are not mechanical objects.

    If the structure was more stable ( less leverage) unexpected events would cause less instability, lowering the risk for catastrophic events. You also can not forget the human factor when it comes to economics. Mass panics do occur in many areas of human interaction. ( See bridge stampede in Cambodia a week or so ago). A mass panic when it comes to economic events can lead to the instability as people forget rational decision making. They can make the same errors on the upside as well
    But this cycle is something we've seen for years. Presumably people would have become better at predicting them.

    The point of speculators is to smooth out price fluctuations, right? That way, instead of $0.50 tomatoes one month and $25 tomatoes another month, we'll average at about $1 tomatoes all year. Why hasn't this occurred in predicting business cycles?

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
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  8. #118
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Only if you ignore the years previous to the economic crisis ( ie the proximate cause of the crisis in the first place

    Things just dont happen

    An economic crisis, just does not happen out of the blue. It has causes that lead up to the crisis. In Japan it was the massive bubble in the stock market, the propery market, that when bursting caused a massive economic slowdown as wealth was destroyed and debt to assets increased. The boom times during a bubble make those times seem good (1920's, Japan in the 80s, the US in the 90s etc). Those economic periods are not examples of economic strenght, but of economic folly. Give a 15 year old girl a credit card and she will live the high life, and all will seem good untill the bills come due. To state the problems started when the bill comes due is idiotic, the problems started when the bill was being rung up, not after

    The 20s, Japan in the 80s the US, UK, Ireland, Iceland, the Baltics etc all rung up high credit card bills during the 2000's and life seemed good, Now the bill comes due, and life sucks. The problem is not that the bill came due, but that it was rung up in the first place
    But nothing before had lasted so long. Propping up demand fixed nothing. In fact, with all of these measures we haven't seen significant improvement. At least according to Christina Romer.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

  9. #119
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    And this is the disconnect

    It is not a solution of course. It is a way to minimize the pain, instead of making the pain a massive shock to the system causing the entire system to be bed ridden for a short period of time, it allows for the system to function, albit at a reduced rate for an extended period of time

    The choices being a massive collapse with untold suffering, that is relatively short lived

    Or a moderate collapse with managable suffering that lasts for an extended period of time

    In any case untill the debt is worked through, economic growth will be stunted
    http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/cromer/JEP_Spring99.pdf

    "Major real macroeconomic indicators have not become dramatically more stable between the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras, and recessions have become only slightly less severe on average." - Christina Romer

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

  10. #120
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    Re: Your view: Food Stamps and Unemployment

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    Economies are not mechanical objects.



    But this cycle is something we've seen for years. Presumably people would have become better at predicting them.

    The point of speculators is to smooth out price fluctuations, right? That way, instead of $0.50 tomatoes one month and $25 tomatoes another month, we'll average at about $1 tomatoes all year. Why hasn't this occurred in predicting business cycles?
    People are idiots

    Why did so many people all of sudden believe that homes were going to appreciate in value at 15 % or more a year when realistically they should only increase over time at a rate similar to income growth and inflation. At the heart of economics is individual behaviour, and individuals are not always rational, nor are they always well informed. The majority of the time people are rational and so are markets, but sometimes a panic or mania over powers those who remain rational
    Happy Hanukkah Cheerfull Kwanzaa
    Happy Christmas Merry New Year Festivus for the rest of us

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