View Poll Results: Your Identity and For/Against this SS Reform model

Voters
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  • Socialist and Against

    10 10.99%
  • Socialist and For

    1 1.10%
  • Democrat and Against

    21 23.08%
  • Democrat and For

    6 6.59%
  • Republican and Against

    2 2.20%
  • Republican and For

    22 24.18%
  • Libertarian and Against

    9 9.89%
  • Liberarian and For

    9 9.89%
  • I am for it, but with a particular modification (explain)

    11 12.09%
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Thread: Social Security Fix

  1. #371
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by Dittohead not! View Post
    If you're ever elected president, you can try to get your idea through Congress. If we've thrown out the incumbents by then, you just might be successful.
    Your name just went on a list to send donation-request emails from now until the end of time

  2. #372
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Your name just went on a list to send donation-request emails from now until the end of time
    Oh, goody.

    I do recycle hard copy requests. Emails are easily deleted.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

  3. #373
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by CalGun
    At least you acknowledge the short term hit on the deficit. I think it's bigger then you imagine however.
    Got into an interesting discussion with Visbek, who made me run the numbers using the figuring from here to see what the net short term and long term effects on the deficit would be.

    Final Post copied below:




    OASI expenditures in 2015 were $750 Bn. That represents a populace that is 100% on the government for benefits, but that dies off at an average rate of 1/19th per year. Your source points out that means testing the 1% gives us an 8% savings, so we'll take off 8% of expenditures for $690 Bn as our starting point for expenditures before we figure out the effect of slowing the growth. That produces 37% growth, but it does so over 75 years in an expanding manner. So, 1-(.37/75), we'll take 0.5166% off each year, starting in 2017.

    Revenue first bumps up when we pop the cap. According to your source, it increases from 12.9% of payroll to 15.3%, and increases from there to about 15.57 by 2040. We will average that to 15.43

    So, to get an idea of revenue, take Social Security's deficit for 2015 - $45 bn, subtract it from 750 to get $705 Bn. That's how much we divide by 12.9 to figure out what a percentage of payroll is. Multiplying that number by 15.43 gives us $843.27 Bn. The trustees assume that Payroll will grow by about 1.7%. So we will project $843.27*.2 for the initial years revenues, and increase that number by 1.7% every year.

    So, the point at which those lines cross and we start producing surpluses rather than deficits for the original populace is 2027-2028. By 2044, the surpluses produced from that point forward have paid off the debts accumulated during the start-up years, producing a net $183 Bn surplus:

    Attachment 67192715


    Then, however, we have to figure out the costs of the new retirees.

    We reduce the growth in benefits and the cost of benefits by the same (1/37th, 8% for the top 1%) as we did the original retirees. We take each age cohort, assume that 90% of a birth year make it to social security retirement, and say that they cost (750bn/19/cohortsize)*(new retiree cohort size). Median income is applied as is an average monthly SS check of $1,224. When a cohort dies, they pay a 50% tax on their SS accounts before those accounts are rolled into the SS accounts of their heirs, and those monies are rolled into the cost to government to count against the deficits created by the first 19 cohorts whose accounts did not fully replace their Social Security benefit.

    We see that on an annual basis, the program for the new retirees begins to run a surplus starting in 2035 (so, a couple of years after they used to tell us Social Security would be bankrupt, we are running surpluses instead), and the cumulative debts run up by the annual deficits of the early years are paid off, and we have a net $59 Bn surplus by 2041. So, interestingly, the costs of these cohorts are completely paid off slightly sooner than the older cohorts.

    Attachment 67192727


    However, these are two portions of the same system. We need to add together the annual deficits to get an idea of the annual cost, and add together the rolling total costs, to get an idea of the impact on the national debt. What we see when we do that is by 2029, the system is running an annual surplus, and by 2043, we have paid off the costs from the previous cohorts entirely, and are now returning hundreds of billions of dollars to the treasury. By 2050, Social Security has provided more than $3.8 Trillion in surpluses, and is funding other government programs to the tune of $560 Billion a year. By 2060 (which you mentioned), that number has climbed to just shy of an inflation-adjusted (all numbers here are) trillion dollars a year.

    Attachment 67192728
    Last edited by cpwill; 11-30-15 at 04:08 PM.

  4. #374
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    I'm not sure why so many people keep coming up with complicated solutions to fix social security. Fixing social security is extremely simple. The only thing that needs to be done is to raise the retirement age significantly. Bam, Social Security is solvent again.

    If you want a safety net to protect you when you're too old to work, or unable to because you're disabled, social security will provide it. If you want to retire for 20 years, do it on your own dime.
    If you build a man a fire, he'll be warm for a day.

    If you set a man on fire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

  5. #375
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by molten_dragon View Post
    I'm not sure why so many people keep coming up with complicated solutions to fix social security. Fixing social security is extremely simple. The only thing that needs to be done is to raise the retirement age significantly. Bam, Social Security is solvent again.

    If you want a safety net to protect you when you're too old to work, or unable to because you're disabled, social security will provide it. If you want to retire for 20 years, do it on your own dime.
    Those who perform manual labor especially moderate to low skill manual labor are both the least able to save on their own and the least able to continue to work through their 70s.

    Raising the retirement age to 69 and then fixing it to longevity only erases 36% of the funding gap, and keeps us deep in annual deficits as far as the eye can see.

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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Absolutely against this proposal. Particularly, for this reason "Markets recover. If the market tanks right as Joe was planning on retiring, he can work for an extra year while it rights itself, or simply choose to draw less from the account in order to leave more in there to ride the upswing."

    People's retirement should be a guarantee if they pay into the system, it should NEVER depend on what the market is doing. That is insane.

  7. #377
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    That's very detailed and good thinking. But First you would hafta find some politicians who would actually care about doing this. They only care about what they can rob from it or manipulate it to gain new voters or hold onto the same old farts they've always had.
    You're not going to find anybody in Washington who is serious (or has a plan) to "reform" SS.
    I have never even thought of being able to use any money from SS or any other government program for my well being or retirement.

  8. #378
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    One very important question, please...

    The majority of Boomers have been forced to put money into the existing Social Security and Medicare systems all their entire working lives. So, do you think you should put your plan into effect for people who, today, are 25? Or maybe 35? Or maybe even 45? Do you think it should be phased-in over the next ten or fifteen years, and only for people who are in their prime working years?

    Surely, you DON'T imagine that 80,000,000 Boomers are going to vote for anyone who is going to try to engineer some big confiscation screw-job and inflict these big, "new-reality" changes on them right as they are about to retire? That is as politically unlikely as it is monstrously unfair to people who have been forced by law to observe one set of rules, only to be screwed by a new set of rules...?!

    SS would not be in any difficulty at all until at least the year 2032 if it weren't for all the huge masses of people who have miraculously qualified for "disability" during the Obama years, right after they were finally thrown off of unemployment payments! How about THAT?!

    If they'd go through and get everybody OFF of disability who is really not disabled, that would go a long way toward solving any problems. That, plus the fact that most Boomers will be dead by 2032 pretty much solves the rest of any problems. But, hell, at the rate we're going, we'll be destroyed in a war by then anyway, so it may be irrelevant what kind of "retirement" that the Millennials think they'll get -- after they get jobs that could even provide them with a retirement-level income in the first place....
    "The stars are not for man." from "Childhood's End', Arthur C. Clarke

  9. #379
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by Kal'Stang View Post
    SS is not broke. It is over drawn due to politicians using it for things that it was never designed to be used for to begin with. It was designed to be used only for retirement. That's it. Instead our politicians saw it as a free dipping money jar and started "borrowing" from it in order to pay for damn near anything that they couldn't get money for legitimately.

    Want to fix SS? Make the politicians pay back all the money they "borrowed" from SS.
    It is broken. The politicians broke it by doing exactly what you pointed out. And they have no intention of paying it back. They will just continue to rob from it and ask it's intended future recipients to delay their retirement or accept less benefits

  10. #380
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by ObamacareFail View Post
    It is broken. The politicians broke it by doing exactly what you pointed out. And they have no intention of paying it back. They will just continue to rob from it and ask it's intended future recipients to delay their retirement or accept less benefits
    baby boomers do not want to retire because they know that the cost of living is too high, considering they may live 25 years after they retire.. Unless they are sitting on a big retirement or trust fund, which most are not. It hurts younger people with so many older people that are still in many job markets, but can you blame them? They are only doing what they feel they hafta given the economic realities.
    And as you say, the government isn't going to do anything to help the situation, anything they do makes it worse.

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