View Poll Results: Your Identity and For/Against this SS Reform model

Voters
91. You may not vote on this poll
  • Socialist and Against

    10 10.99%
  • Socialist and For

    1 1.10%
  • Democrat and Against

    21 23.08%
  • Democrat and For

    6 6.59%
  • Republican and Against

    2 2.20%
  • Republican and For

    22 24.18%
  • Libertarian and Against

    9 9.89%
  • Liberarian and For

    9 9.89%
  • I am for it, but with a particular modification (explain)

    11 12.09%
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Thread: Social Security Fix

  1. #281
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    popping the cap is unlikely to bring those trillions unless you find a way to incentivize those making the higher incomes to pay it (as my plan does). otherwise you're just providing them incentive to pursue tax-avoidance measures by altering how they recieve income. as for the "freeze"; you realize that's a de facto cut at the rate of inflation?


    and you've still yet to explain to me why - since we are fixing the system anyway - you aren't willing to help our working poor achieve financial independance.
    1) We can freeze benefits plus the rate of inflation without much difficulty.
    2) we can provide ample incentives for the rich to pay the increase resulting from popping the cap. Its called incarceration.
    3) as to helping the poor and financial independence ---- that is not my fight at this point in time. But good luck with it.
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  2. #282
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    1) We can freeze benefits plus the rate of inflation without much difficulty.
    i hope you are correct, but it's going to take your side demonstrating the ability to avoid hysterical shrieking about seniors being thrown out into the snow, so let's say i'm not going to hold my breath

    2) we can provide ample incentives for the rich to pay the increase resulting from popping the cap. Its called incarceration.
    except of course that minimizing one's exposure to taxation is not illegal; else we'd have to arrest every schlub who deducted his mortgage interest.

    3) as to helping the poor and financial independence ---- that is not my fight at this point in time
    well at this point that's painfully obvious; though sad. and telling. though at least you're honest - you don't want to help the poor, you just want to grow government.

  3. #283
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by earthworm View Post
    Must social security be "Constitutional"?
    I am leery of the idea of having something that is social/government participating in the world of business.
    Not that what you propose is without merit, this does require some very careful study..
    And with the 401K, et al, we have a partial version of this..
    How to save social sercuity.....
    Since when did it require saving?
    If more income is needed, simply extend the "cut off".....
    The rich will not go for this....we have too many conservatives in government, representing the wealthy.
    No vote, as usual, I am independent.
    Could someone please translate this for me?
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

  4. #284
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    conservatives are bad = their ideas are bad = the market is bad. tax the rich.

    hope that helped.

  5. #285
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    from cp will on my proposal to pop the cap on FICA contributions and freeze benefits at the current level plus inflation

    i hope you are correct, but it's going to take your side demonstrating the ability to avoid hysterical shrieking about seniors being thrown out into the snow, so let's say i'm not going to hold my breath
    I believe - based on talking to many other people "on my side" about this that they would be more than happy with a system which did just that. Protecting SS and keeping the benefits to current levels plus inflation would not at all eb objectionable and I have heard no real objections to it from AARP or other such groups. I am a member of AARP and get their publications and they are indeed supportive of this idea.

    I mentioned this as a way to fight tax avoidance from the rich
    2) we can provide ample incentives for the rich to pay the increase resulting from popping the cap. Its called incarceration.
    and the reply from cpwill

    except of course that minimizing one's exposure to taxation is not illegal; else we'd have to arrest every schlub who deducted his mortgage interest.
    We have had this discussion before in other threads and we simply see it differently. I favor a tightening of the laws and increased enforcement of the laws with perhaps stiffer penalties - all to encourage proper payment of ones obligation. You have said that it is not so simple. Perhaps you are partially right and I am partially right. I do think there is room for improvement in the present system and ways can be found to collect the legal tax obligation and "encourage" everyone to properly fulfill their legal and civic obligation.

    I said this about cpwill's ideas

    3) as to helping the poor and financial independence ---- that is not my fight at this point in time
    and his response

    well at this point that's painfully obvious; though sad. and telling. though at least you're honest - you don't want to help the poor, you just want to grow government.
    One can only do so much and one must limit their scope of activity. I do think there are things we can do to help the poor achieve a better financial position and that begins with education.I have no position of growing government or reducing government as an ideology, principle or hard and fast rule. I lean towards a more pragmatic and practical approach.
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  6. #286
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    I believe - based on talking to many other people "on my side" about this that they would be more than happy with a system which did just that. Protecting SS and keeping the benefits to current levels plus inflation would not at all eb objectionable and I have heard no real objections to it from AARP or other such groups. I am a member of AARP and get their publications and they are indeed supportive of this idea.
    given that that is likely going to end up happening (the freeze) anyway, that's good to hear. but it strikes me that it's too easy to demagogue because it is too easy to tie a Giant Scary Number Republicans Want To Cut X Trillion Dollars From Social Security etc. again, I'm not really willing to bet much on the ability of today's Democrats to walk away from something that easy, irrespective of whether or not it will keep us from bankruptcy.

    We have had this discussion before in other threads and we simply see it differently. I favor a tightening of the laws and increased enforcement of the laws with perhaps stiffer penalties - all to encourage proper payment of ones obligation. You have said that it is not so simple. Perhaps you are partially right and I am partially right. I do think there is room for improvement in the present system and ways can be found to collect the legal tax obligation and "encourage" everyone to properly fulfill their legal and civic obligation.
    the law at present is the law. the trick with income is that it can berecieved in a variety of ways at a variety of times - especially at the upper brackets - so as to avoid taxes. we're not talking about closing loopholes here, we're talking about closing off entire incomes. the payroll tax is just easy for higher income workers to avoid.

    One can only do so much and one must limit their scope of activity
    we are already undertaking this activity. i'm only suggesting that - since we are doing it anyway - that we do it in such a way that it actually benefits the poor rather than simply costing them.

    I do think there are things we can do to help the poor achieve a better financial position and that begins with education.
    well if that's the case then our best hope is a Presidency for Mitch Daniels followed by President Walker, both of whom appoint Michelle Rhee as their Secretary of Education.

    I have no position of growing government or reducing government as an ideology, principle or hard and fast rule. I lean towards a more pragmatic and practical approach.
    yeah, that's what progressives usually say. mind you, it's impossible...

  7. #287
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    if you will look at our collection over the past few years



    you will note that while tax rates varied wildly, revenue rates did not; generally holding steady at 18-19% of GDP, irrespective of the tax rate. people seek to avoid exposure to taxes, and the higher the tax rates, the greater their incentive to do so. on the margin you depress the activity that is taxed. within the range of GDP that is collected, lower taxes seem to push it higher, but rather than simply assuming a direct (rather than indirect through increased GDP) effect, we should note that the period of greatest tax rate variation is the period of greatest revenue rate stability, and the period of greatest revenue rate variability occured during a time that was marked by fairly stable tax rates.

    Revenue, therefore, is mostly a function of GDP. if you want to increase revenue, take steps that would more rapidly increase GDP. if you want to depress revenue, take steps that would slow the growth (or reduce) GDP.

    this isn't to say that tax cuts are or should be a one-stop-shop. I would argue at our current point we probably would gain more through tax code simplification. Currently we spend 330 Billion just complying with the Tax code; that's unconcionable. imagine the effect of just 2/3rds of that in savings every year; invested in the economy and compounded over time? reducing tax code complexity and the regulatory burden are two great non-tax methods of increasing GDP.

    First, I challenged you to back up you assertion that raising taxes decreases tax revenue and you proceed to show how lowering taxes raises revenue. That is not the same thing.
    Second, lowering the marginal tax rate is not the same thing as lowering taxes.
    Third, tax revenue increases with growth in GDP. One can lower taxes and have increased taxes simply because GDP goes up
    Fourth, tax revenues have increased largely from payroll taxes. Those taxes were not lowered, but in fact have a built in year over year increase because the maximum tax goes up each year. I will suggest that the increase in revenue from payroll taxes actually masks the effect of tax rate decreases on income tax revenue

    Hence, total tax revenues can increase even when income tax revenue increases, even without income tax revenue going up, hence you didn't "solidly demonstrate" anything.
    You showed two graphs of disparate information and implied a relationship but none is established.
    Attached Images Attached Images Social Security Fix-numbers_figure-2_what-federal-govt-sources-revenue_1-jpg 
    Last edited by upsideguy; 04-15-11 at 09:38 PM.

  8. #288
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    First, I challenged you to back up you assertion that raising taxes decreases tax revenue and you proceed to show how lowering taxes raises revenue.
    no, i showed how higher taxes in the past had not produced higher revenue.

    Second, lowering the marginal tax rate is not the same thing as lowering taxes.
    lowering the tax rate is certainly not the same thing as decreasing revenues. that was part of the purpose of my post, yes.

    Third, tax revenue increases with growth in GDP. One can lower taxes and have increased taxes simply because GDP goes up
    bingo. the reverse, of course, is also true; you can hike tax rates and depress revenues because GDP does not go up.

    Fourth, tax revenues have increased largely from payroll taxes.
    more people are making more money? and this occured over the period of time when we lowered our top marginal tax rates? why perish the thought.

    Those taxes were not lowered, but in fact have a built in year over year increase because the maximum tax goes up each year
    not necessarily; it has remained consistent at $106,800 since 2009. and then it is usually adjusted with inflation, which seeks to keep it even in real dollars.

    I will suggest that the increase in revenue from payroll taxes actually masks the effect of tax rate decreases on income tax revenue
    yet your own chart seems to indicate that there has been no decrease in income tax. and certainly there hasn't been a decrease in income tax as a percent of GDP.



    1. The average percentage of GDP represented by U.S. federal personal income tax revenues from 1946 through 2006 is 8.0%. The percentage share of personal income tax revenues with respect to GDP is normally distributed, with a standard deviation of 0.8%. This defines the typical range for the personal income tax share of GDP of 7.2% to 8.8%.

    2. Recessions (shown by the vertical red bands) often coincide with decreased revenue for the federal government from personal income taxes. This is exactly what we should expect to see, as the total level of income earned falls with employment levels during recessions.

    3. There are unique circumstances that coincide with percentage shares greater than 8.8%...

    4. Unique circumstances also apply to the one period in which the percentage share of personal income taxes dipped below the lower level of 7.2%...

    5. Years in which tax rate cuts took effect (1964, 1970, 1971, 1982, 1987, 1988, 1991 and 2003) all saw government collections of personal income taxes dip initially, then begin to rise afterward, with the total of personal income tax collections always falling in the range between 7.2% and 8.8% of GDP.

    This last phenomenon suggests that the distribution of taxable income shifts in accordance with changes in the tax rate structure of the income tax code to maintain a stable equilibrium with respect to overall GDP, albeit with a small lagging effect. This level of equilibrium is given by a level of personal income tax collections representing 8.0% of GDP, plus or minus 0.8%, which holds in the absence of unique economic and fiscal policy factors.

    Basically, this means that as tax rates change, people shift their level of economic production to account for the change in the tax rate structure, and do so in a way that maintains this overall level of equilibrium...

    We confirm that beginning in 1964, with the first of a series of income tax rate reductions, personal income tax collections have risen at a much faster pace than they did under the highly progressive income tax rate structure that existed from 1946 through 1963, even after adjusting for inflation.

    We'll revisit this latter chart in the future, but for now, we'll observe that regardless of what it might hope to achieve from changing the schedule of tax rates, the government isn't going to get much more than 8.0% +/- 0.8% of the pie called GDP for the effort. The real question is whether it will be 7.2%-8.8% of a growing pie that incents people to be more productive or 7.2%-8.8% of a stagnant or shrinking pie that incents people to become really good at dodging personal income taxes, or just taking it easier....
    Last edited by cpwill; 04-15-11 at 10:00 PM.

  9. #289
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    from cpwill

    well if that's the case then our best hope is a Presidency for Mitch Daniels followed by President Walker, both of whom appoint Michelle Rhee as their Secretary of Education.
    only if we once again legalize snake oil salesman going town to town from the back of a wagon.
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  10. #290
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    Re: Social Security Fix

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    from cpwill

    only if we once again legalize snake oil salesman going town to town from the back of a wagon.
    sure, we'll have to do that to make up for the Obama administrations' decision to paint cows purple and charge people 0.0037% of their income for entrance to the Washington Monument.


    how in the world did what you just say have any relevance?

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