View Poll Results: How many people will be at the Restoring Honor Rally?

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  • 1 - 1,000

    3 8.82%
  • 1,000 - 5,000

    4 11.76%
  • 5,000 - 10,000

    1 2.94%
  • 10,000 - 30,000

    3 8.82%
  • 30,000 - 50,000

    0 0%
  • 50,000 - 75,000

    2 5.88%
  • 75,000 - 100,000

    2 5.88%
  • 100,000 - 200,000

    2 5.88%
  • 200,000 - 300,000

    1 2.94%
  • Over 300,000

    16 47.06%
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Thread: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

  1. #191
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by rivrrat View Post
    All I can say, after stomaching about 5 minutes of info about the revival in DC, is that I'm even more happy now that I wasted absolutely no time reading about this religious activism stunt. It was pretty much what I pegged it to be: Perfectly pointless and meaningless.
    Hey, you're only about two hours away. We should have lunch.
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  2. #192
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Hey, you're only about two hours away. We should have lunch.
    Where are you?

  3. #193
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by hazlnut View Post
    Glenn Beck Rally Attracts Estimated 87,000 - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

    Looks like CBS split the difference along their margin of error.

    I haven't heard any other media dispute these numbers. Seems like most media are keeping it general.

    Quote Originally Posted by marduc View Post
    It was 3 people that looked over the aerial photos to come up with that consensus estimate, so even if they only had half a brain each there was a combined brainpower of 1.5.
    All you boys have to do is look at the pics.





    There's no magic to USA Today's methodology; they took the actual area and estimated at a person per 2.5 square feet. That's simple math.

    The north glen alone is about half the size of the area estimated to hold 946,000. So, be conservative, round it down, say 400,000.

    In the pic, it's filled, but not very densely, so say 1/4 of the density contemplated. That's 100,000 people right there.

    The mall area, too, is almost that size; also being conservative, if it were all solid ground, it too would hold about 400,000. The reflecting pool takes up about 75% of the space, but of the people there, it IS densely packed, so it's a pretty fair estimation that it, too, is about 100,000.

    That doesn't include the people around the memorial, around the middle pool, in the pathways, and obscured by the trees.

    So, looks like at least 200,000 to me, through simple, conservative calculations.

    And I really don't even care how many are actually there; I'm just fascinated with the need of some people to diminish it as much as possible and not admit it could possibly have been more than the lowest estimate one could find.
    “Offing those rich pigs with their own forks and knives, and then eating a meal in the same room, far out! The Weathermen dig Charles Manson.”-- Bernadine Dohrn

  4. #194
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by Harshaw View Post
    There's no magic to USA Today's methodology; they took the actual area and estimated at a person per 2.5 square feet. That's simple math.
    square root(2.5) = 1.58113883 1.6 x 1.6 for eaxh person? You've got to be kidding me, how do they breath when they are that close. BTW, Michelle Backmann says there was at least 1 Million there. She must go fishing a lot.


  5. #195
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    square root(2.5) = 1.58113883 1.6 x 1.6 for eaxh person? You've got to be kidding me, how do they breath when they are that close.
    Your body isn't a square, so you don't figure a square.

    BTW, Michelle Backmann says there was at least 1 Million there. She must go fishing a lot.
    Like I give a crap what Michelle Bachmann says.
    “Offing those rich pigs with their own forks and knives, and then eating a meal in the same room, far out! The Weathermen dig Charles Manson.”-- Bernadine Dohrn

  6. #196
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by Harshaw View Post
    All you boys have to do is look at the pics.
    This is exactly what the cbs commissioned estimate did, looked at the pics, broke it up into grids, estimated density for each section of the grid (as opposed to the blanket density you are promoting). simple math.. which you touted in your post takes account that density is not a constant but rather a variable.

    from one of the analysts:

    to make density estimates across different zones of the crowd; a variety of ground-level images from news photographers and attendees who posted their photos on Flickr; and Google Earth to measure the square footage of the different zones...

    ...My estimate is that about 80,000 people were at the rally. Ryan Shuler, an Airphotoslive image analyst, used the same images and a different grid-density method to produce an estimate of 87,000. Considering the error margins around our separately-calculated estimates, they are statistically identical.
    Is their estimate correct? probably not, it is an estimate as I stated, but also as I stated it appears to be the most methodologically sound estimate out there.

    The correct answer to how many people were there: quite a few.. and we have no way of knowing so we just have to go with the most reasonable guesstimate. I choose to put more stock in the methodology of a guesstimate that employs integrating the density and not treating it as a constant, and then uses a statistical comparison of independent findings to gauge the accuracy, over "X sq ft * 2.5 = estimate."

    I did not do this out of a need to promote the low ball number, I jut saw the bickering, became curious, looked into it, and came to the conclusion that their methods were fairly sound, although the entire art of crowd estimates is basically guesswork, the arialphotos estimate at least seems to attempt to make the most accurate guess they could, and to try to make it as sound as they could.
    Last edited by marduc; 08-30-10 at 09:07 PM.
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  7. #197
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    An addendum to my previous post.. I was curious of how CBS got their numbers because their estimate felt like it was a lowball, and seemed a bit off.

    After reading the process behind it from one of the estimators who was involved, I started to become not so sure.. I still feel as if their estimates are a tad low, and again I make the disclaimer I have made previously that I think they should be taken with a grain of salt, it is just after satiating my curiosity of the matter I also feel their methods to get their estimate are sound, and it seems they attempted to make their guess as scientific and as accurate as they possibly could, and as such I started to think that they may not be so far off after all.. it is still a guess though.
    Last edited by marduc; 08-30-10 at 09:33 PM.
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  8. #198
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by Harshaw View Post
    All you boys have to do is look at the pics.





    There's no magic to USA Today's methodology; they took the actual area and estimated at a person per 2.5 square feet. That's simple math.

    The north glen alone is about half the size of the area estimated to hold 946,000. So, be conservative, round it down, say 400,000.

    In the pic, it's filled, but not very densely, so say 1/4 of the density contemplated. That's 100,000 people right there.

    The mall area, too, is almost that size; also being conservative, if it were all solid ground, it too would hold about 400,000. The reflecting pool takes up about 75% of the space, but of the people there, it IS densely packed, so it's a pretty fair estimation that it, too, is about 100,000.

    That doesn't include the people around the memorial, around the middle pool, in the pathways, and obscured by the trees.

    So, looks like at least 200,000 to me, through simple, conservative calculations.

    And I really don't even care how many are actually there; I'm just fascinated with the need of some people to diminish it as much as possible and not admit it could possibly have been more than the lowest estimate one could find.
    In that second pic, there's noticeable greenness in some areas - And unless all that green is people wearing completely grass-colored clothing and skin paint, I see grass.

    One person per 2.5 square feet is a bit tight, considering the green; I would say about one person per 10 square feet.

    10.00 square feet = A square ~ 3.16 x 3.16 feet, plenty of space for a person (unless REALLY large).
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Mark View Post
    In that second pic, there's noticeable greenness in some areas - And unless all that green is people wearing completely grass-colored clothing and skin paint, I see grass.

    One person per 2.5 square feet is a bit tight, considering the green; I would say about one person per 10 square feet.

    10.00 square feet = A square ~ 3.16 x 3.16 feet, plenty of space for a person (unless REALLY large).
    There was a lot of open space, I was able to drive my car right up close to the stage...


  10. #200
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    Re: How many people will be at the 8.28 Restoring Honor Rally tomorrow in D.C.?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Mark View Post
    In that second pic, there's noticeable greenness in some areas - And unless all that green is people wearing completely grass-colored clothing and skin paint, I see grass.

    One person per 2.5 square feet is a bit tight, considering the green; I would say about one person per 10 square feet.

    10.00 square feet = A square ~ 3.16 x 3.16 feet, plenty of space for a person (unless REALLY large).
    I think that's why Harshaw calculated this rally as having 1/4 of the density.
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