View Poll Results: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

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Thread: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

  1. #31
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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    Romney has his health care problem, which is a huge deal considering how much importance is being placed on Obamacare (and yes, it will still be an issue if it still exists in 2012). And even without that, he has the same problem he had in 2008 of inconsistent and often changing views.

    The popular narrative right now is that it'll be Palin versus Romney, but I don't think it'll be either. Even if Palin runs (unlikely) she won't be nominated; there's the inexperience factor, plus she's a controversial figure even within the GOP. And she's unelectable, and most Republicans realize that.
    I agree she is unelectable, and for basically those reasons. I also agree that Romney will face huge problems both getting the nomination and in the general for those reasons. That is why I think you throw one of those out in an election that I suspect is going to strongly favor Obama. If the economy is in good shape, incumbents are hard to beat.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainCourtesy View Post
    Yup. That's a BIG problem for him. Moderates might accept him, but the more conservative probably won't. Shame. I think he'd be a pretty good candidate.
    ... which is exactly why the Repubs have no shot in '12. You can not win the presidency by appealing to an extreme of the political spectrum. If the Repubs insist on running a conservative, they will be sending their man (or woman) to slaughter... Obama will be essentially running unopposed just as Clinton did in '96 and Reagan in '84.

  3. #33
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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    I agree she is unelectable, and for basically those reasons. I also agree that Romney will face huge problems both getting the nomination and in the general for those reasons. That is why I think you throw one of those out in an election that I suspect is going to strongly favor Obama. If the economy is in good shape, incumbents are hard to beat.
    We don't know what the economy will be like. We don't even know what the big issues will be in 2012. This far away from 2008, everyone thought the big issue would be Iraq.

    What do you mean "you throw one of those out"?

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    ... which is exactly why the Repubs have no shot in '12. You can not win the presidency by appealing to an extreme of the political spectrum. If the Repubs insist on running a conservative, they will be sending their man (or woman) to slaughter... Obama will be essentially running unopposed just as Clinton did in '96 and Reagan in '84.
    What? For one thing, running a conservative is not "appealing to an extreme". And don't forget that Reagan ran as a conservative, and won both times. Not to mention, if Clinton ran unopposed in '96, he would have gotten an actual majority of the votes.

    Right now people think Obama doesn't deserve a second term, 50%-44% or so. That can change, obviously, but to say that he has no chance of being defeated at this time is kind of silly.

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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    We don't know what the economy will be like. We don't even know what the big issues will be in 2012. This far away from 2008, everyone thought the big issue would be Iraq.

    What do you mean "you throw one of those out"?
    We don't for sure, but historically, the economy is due to be in good shape. The rest is true, but barring anything unforeseen(anything involving the future should automatically come with that caveat) I suspect that Obama will be in good shape. Let's face it, the last one term president was Bush the elder. Only 3 in my lifetime. It is certainly far from certain, and I am not making a prediction here, but it is my best guess right now, which I reserve the right to change as more data becomes available.

    What I meant by that was to give them the nomination, let them run and lose. If you are probably going to lose anyway, why waste a good candidate?
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    We don't know what the economy will be like. We don't even know what the big issues will be in 2012. This far away from 2008, everyone thought the big issue would be Iraq.

    What do you mean "you throw one of those out"?



    What? For one thing, running a conservative is not "appealing to an extreme". And don't forget that Reagan ran as a conservative, and won both times. Not to mention, if Clinton ran unopposed in '96, he would have gotten an actual majority of the votes.

    Right now people think Obama doesn't deserve a second term, 50%-44% or so. That can change, obviously, but to say that he has no chance of being defeated at this time is kind of silly.
    So we are clear, I did not mean the Republicans have no shot; only that they have no shot if they run a conservative. Although Reagan running as a conservative is a good argument, I would argue that Reagan is far less "conservative" than the pool of candidates that are to the right of Romney... they are extreme. Romney could win. Pawlenty could win. People around that end of the spectrum have a shot, but people much to the right, they would likely be roadkill unless things really collapsed.

    BTW - what poll are you citing that people would change out Obama? That is lower then is approval rating, which right now is about 47%. Granted, an approval rating under 50% is not a good place to be running a campaign from... that said, as you pointed out and I agree, 2012 will be an entirely different situation than today.

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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    We don't for sure, but historically, the economy is due to be in good shape. The rest is true, but barring anything unforeseen(anything involving the future should automatically come with that caveat) I suspect that Obama will be in good shape. Let's face it, the last one term president was Bush the elder. Only 3 in my lifetime. It is certainly far from certain, and I am not making a prediction here, but it is my best guess right now, which I reserve the right to change as more data becomes available.
    Eh, it's all speculation. But keep in mind the last two consecutive presidents to win election to two terms, before Clinton-Bush, was Madison-Monroe. So the fact that Bush I was the last one-termer doesn't really say anything about Obama's chances.

    I was trying to think of the last time a president lost in a good economy, and decided it was probably 1968. Though the recession in 1992 was not that big, as well. But of course, we don't even know 2012 will be a good economy. Don't forget Carter, who won in a bad economy, and then lost in a still-bad economy. And if the CBO is to be believed, the economy might still be recovering in 2012: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/110xx/doc...ony_Senate.pdf
    CBO: Unemployment Rate Not Likely To Dip Below 9% Until 2012

    What I meant by that was to give them the nomination, let them run and lose. If you are probably going to lose anyway, why waste a good candidate?
    That makes no sense at all. Republicans will want to beat Obama no matter the odds. And even if there are small odds, they won't be microscopic. And Romney's problems have nothing to do with his odds in the general, plus Palin has problems that also apply to the primary as well as the general, as I've already said.

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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dav View Post
    Eh, it's all speculation. But keep in mind the last two consecutive presidents to win election to two terms, before Clinton-Bush, was Madison-Monroe. So the fact that Bush I was the last one-termer doesn't really say anything about Obama's chances.

    I was trying to think of the last time a president lost in a good economy, and decided it was probably 1968. Though the recession in 1992 was not that big, as well. But of course, we don't even know 2012 will be a good economy. Don't forget Carter, who won in a bad economy, and then lost in a still-bad economy. And if the CBO is to be believed, the economy might still be recovering in 2012: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/110xx/doc...ony_Senate.pdf
    CBO: Unemployment Rate Not Likely To Dip Below 9% Until 2012



    That makes no sense at all. Republicans will want to beat Obama no matter the odds. And even if there are small odds, they won't be microscopic. And Romney's problems have nothing to do with his odds in the general, plus Palin has problems that also apply to the primary as well as the general, as I've already said.
    Just a point of clarification/amplification: The 1992 recession was not bad, but it was scary to us. ALot of things had been going on during that period, Black Monday, spiking oil prices(we wish prices where like that now though), slow growth, so on. This all continued well into 1992, and pretty much into 1993.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

  8. #38
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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    So we are clear, I did not mean the Republicans have no shot; only that they have no shot if they run a conservative. Although Reagan running as a conservative is a good argument, I would argue that Reagan is far less "conservative" than the pool of candidates that are to the right of Romney... they are extreme. Romney could win. Pawlenty could win. People around that end of the spectrum have a shot, but people much to the right, they would likely be roadkill unless things really collapsed.
    Reagan was actually pretty extreme, I can't think of anyone currently running who is more conservative than he was.
    Republicans almost always run conservatives, I don't even know what you're talking about. And since when was Pawlenty a moderate?

    BTW - what poll are you citing that people would change out Obama? That is lower then is approval rating, which right now is about 47%. Granted, an approval rating under 50% is not a good place to be running a campaign from... that said, as you pointed out and I agree, 2012 will be an entirely different situation than today.
    I was wrong, it's 52%:
    CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - CNN Poll: Anti-incumbent fever at record high - Blogs from CNN.com
    According to the poll, 44 percent of registered voters say Obama deserves re-election, with 52 percent saying the president does not deserve a second term in office

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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mellie View Post
    Will Sarah Palin decide to run for President in 2012? Please give an explanation for your answers.
    There is no money in running for President. There is money in appearing to be running for President. Former Gov. Palin is a mercenary for Sarah Palin. It's all about money, and, more important, it's about money that Sarah Palin can get her hands on. She won't run for President, but, she will appear to run for President for good while longer.
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    Re: Will Sarah Palin run for President in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    There is no money in running for President. There is money in appearing to be running for President. Former Gov. Palin is a mercenary for Sarah Palin. It's all about money, and, more important, it's about money that Sarah Palin can get her hands on. She won't run for President, but, she will appear to run for President for good while longer.
    I don't think money is the issue. Most people don't get into politics for money, and most people in politics, including Palin, have enough. It's the desire for power and to(idealistically) try and make the country better. In my naivete I actually think most politicians, including Palin, think they are working to benefit the country.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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