Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

Coronado said:

And as ridiculous as the idea of a US-China war is, it is still only a two-party affair, not a world war.

Duh.

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China/Russia are forming a geographically strategic alliance with counties throughout the World.....DUH.

creativedreams said:

China/Russia are forming a geographically strategic alliance with counties throughout the World.....DUH.

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China and Russia don't get along, and they never have. Even a casual observer of history knows this.

Unless that is part of some sort of super-secret conspiracy only you know of ... :roll:

Coronado said:

China and Russia don't get along, and they never have. Even a casual observer of history knows this.

Unless that is part of some sort of super-secret conspiracy only you know of ... :roll:

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Russia gets along with them well enough to build new pipelines and sell them hydrocarbons

how well do they have to get along?

Coronado said:

China and Russia don't get along, and they never have. Even a casual observer of history knows this.

Unless that is part of some sort of super-secret conspiracy only you know of ... :roll:

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Throughout the History of the Planet many alliances formed between unlikely groups to attain a common goal...DUH

elbatrop said:

Russia gets along with them well enough to build new pipelines and sell them hydrocarbons

how well do they have to get along?

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By that logic it would make more sense for China to ally with the US against Russia, as we trade far more with China than Russia does.

creativedreams said:

Throughout the History of the Planet many alliances formed between unlikely groups to attain a common goal...DUH

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You have no proof, as usual. Feel free to pretend without me.

Coronado said:

China and Russia don't get along, and they never have. Even a casual observer of history knows this.

Unless that is part of some sort of super-secret conspiracy only you know of ... :roll:

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With your research capabilities perhaps it would appear to be some super-secret conspiracy.

Anyways...

Russia and China become part of strategic alliance – Indiadaily.com - Russia and China become part of strategic alliance – Putin now looks at BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)

Since you are research challenged, perhaps I can find a link for you on a statement from a Russian General.

The Russian General has stated that the U.S. government concocted 9/11 to gain support for an aggressive foreign policy and to change many political policies within the U.S. itself.

This same Russian General also expressed his wanting of a Geographic Strategic Alliance for an all out war against the U.S. and to stop the U.S. from influencing all of mankind.

Coronado said:

By that logic it would make more sense for China to ally with the US against Russia, as we trade far more with China than Russia does.

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no it wouldn't

China is playing it very smartly and so is Russia.

China needs oil and Russia has it, the US is a net importer that also a debtor nation on a path to its own demise, allying with the US would be stupid. There literally from their point of view is no future in a long term alliance with the US.

All three nations are enaged in and have been for quite sometime now at locking up and controlling as much of the world's remaining energy as they can. For China one of its best options is to look to Russia not the US. This is also why China is actively courting Venezuela among other places like Caspian basin countries.

China is holding US debt, enough debt that they can extort the US with it, its relationship with US is temporary, it won't last much longer. They probably know by now they won't get paid back but for now it is useful to them.

elbatrop said:

no it wouldn't

China is playing it very smartly and so is Russia.

China needs oil and Russia has it, the US is a net importer that also a debtor nation on a path to its own demise, allying with the US would be stupid. There literally from their point of view is no future in a long term alliance with the US.

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Wait a second. So you're saying China views the US as a declining power...and therefore they're going to ally with RUSSIA?! Russia is the most obviously declining power in the world, much moreso than the US.

elbatrop said:

All three nations are enaged in and have been for quite sometime now at locking up and controlling as much of the world's remaining energy as they can. For China one of its best options is to look to Russia not the US. This is also why China is actively courting Venezuela among other places like Caspian basin countries.

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There is a much bigger risk of war between Russia and China, than between either of them and the US. You're right that China wants energy, but it has its eye on Siberia for precisely that reason. For now, China is content to trade with Russia (with terms favorable to China). But in a couple decades when China is much stronger and Russia is much weaker, China might decide that it wants Siberia for itself. The region is already becoming ethnically and linguistically Chinese.

elbatrop said:

China is holding US debt, enough debt that they can extort the US with it, its relationship with US is temporary, it won't last much longer. They probably know by now they won't get paid back but for now it is useful to them.

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The United States is one of the safest sovereign debts on the planet (the 7th safest as of Q4 2009). Much moreso than Russia, which defaulted on its debt just 12 years ago.

Kandahar said:

Wait a second. So you're saying China views the US as a declining power...and therefore they're going to ally with RUSSIA?! Russia is the most obviously declining power in the world, much moreso than the US.



There is a much bigger risk of war between Russia and China, than between either of them and the US. You're right that China wants energy, but it has its eye on Siberia for precisely that reason. For now, China is content to trade with Russia (with terms favorable to China). But in a couple decades when China is much stronger and Russia is much weaker, China might decide that it wants Siberia for itself. The region is already becoming ethnically and linguistically Chinese.



The United States is one of the safest sovereign debts on the planet (the 7th safest as of Q4 2009). Much moreso than Russia, which defaulted on its debt just 12 years ago.

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the US is a declining power, has been for quite awhile, but China isn't allyng with Russia for defensive reasons other than having reliable oil supply is defensive in its own right and Russia is the #1 or #2 world oil producer and has been for a couple years now. The US on the otherhand refuses to pay its debts, conducts its finances like a criminal, and is a net oil importer with waning supply sources. China isn't stupid they see this too.

The United States unless it very very abruptly changes its ways or the rest of the world falls apart entirely will more than likley default, it is economically screwed. It is making the same mistakes most empires do including Russia, Great Britain, and even Rome. You might wanna take a look at what quantitative easing is and really means, round two will be coming shortly. Ponzi scheme economics doesn't last very long.

creativedreams said:

With your research capabilities perhaps it would appear to be some super-secret conspiracy.

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Personal attack noted.

creativedreams said:

Anyways...

Russia and China become part of strategic alliance – Indiadaily.com - Russia and China become part of strategic alliance – Putin now looks at BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)

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Very good. We shall see if this lasts. However, at the outside, we're talking about another Cold War, not World War III.

creativedreams said:

Since you are research challenged, perhaps I can find a link for you on a statement from a Russian General.

The Russian General has stated that the U.S. government concocted 9/11 to gain support for an aggressive foreign policy and to change many political policies within the U.S. itself.

This same Russian General also expressed his wanting of a Geographic Strategic Alliance for an all out war against the U.S. and to stop the U.S. from influencing all of mankind.

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Conspiracy bull****.

elbatrop said:

no it wouldn't

China is playing it very smartly and so is Russia.

China needs oil and Russia has it, the US is a net importer that also a debtor nation on a path to its own demise, allying with the US would be stupid. There literally from their point of view is no future in a long term alliance with the US.

All three nations are enaged in and have been for quite sometime now at locking up and controlling as much of the world's remaining energy as they can. For China one of its best options is to look to Russia not the US. This is also why China is actively courting Venezuela among other places like Caspian basin countries.

China is holding US debt, enough debt that they can extort the US with it, its relationship with US is temporary, it won't last much longer. They probably know by now they won't get paid back but for now it is useful to them.

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So this translates into WW3 how?

China is getting ready for something big as is Russia...

China has been hacking into the U.S. Military and Government Networks waging a cyber-war.



July 2009: There were a series of coordinated attacks against major government, media, financial websites in the United States...

Ghost Net: is the name given to a large scale cyber operation discovered in March 2009. It's command and control infrastructure is based mainly in China. This operation by China has infiltrated high value government offices, political, economic, media computer systems in the U.S. and 103 countries.

Titan Rain: is U.S. Governments designated name given to a series of coordinated attacks on American State Sponsored Computer Systems and Corporate Espionage since 2003 that were Chinese in origin and the result of Chinese Military Hackers gathering information on U.S. Systems. This attack gained access to copy information from many U.S. Military Networks.

Moonlight Maze: is U.S. Governments designated name given to a series of coordinated attacks on U.S. Computer Systems in 1999. The attacks were traced back to Moscow Russia. Those cyber warfare attacks obtained large amounts of data including classified Military Codes and Missile Guidance Systems.


For those of you who have some stereotype of China's Military capabilities I can give you a rude awakening that the U.S. propaganda bubble would not show you...
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqicAnrUSP4"]YouTube- China Military Power 2009 中国大陆军队2009预告[/ame]

Coronado said:

So this translates into WW3 how?

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Well nations tend to go to war when they get antsy for resources and have large militaries to use rather than do things in a more honorable and forthright fashion. Having a large military and using it constantly means having vast resources to use to begin with.

many wars have been fought over resources, and resources are going to get very very tight, many nations will be forced to go without, many will fight rather than adapt or change

some nations even resort to lying and fabricating justification over it, as a general rule man isn't too smart collectively

one of these days the little proxy wars and skirmishes will turn into something more serious, I think it is very likely it will happen at some stage soon

Coronado said:

Personal attack noted.

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As was yours

Coronado said:

Conspiracy bull****.

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Nope.....perhaps to the research challenged....

This is childish.

creativedreams said:

...various statements, claims, and a Youtube link...

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Please, if you are going to claim such things, at least include links which support your claims, otherwise people will think you are just spouting stuff you read somewhere...

It's always possible. Just because we have nukes doesn't mean we have to use them, certainly we've refrained from dropping them in Iraq and Afghanistan so the idea that nuclear weapons must be used just because we have them is absurd.

So long as nations are stupid, the possibility of wide-spread warfare exists.

Cephus said:

It's always possible. Just because we have nukes doesn't mean we have to use them, certainly we've refrained from dropping them in Iraq and Afghanistan so the idea that nuclear weapons must be used just because we have them is absurd.

So long as nations are stupid, the possibility of wide-spread warfare exists.

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And since nations are made up of people, run by people, and there will most likely always be stupid people, the possiblity of wide-spread warfare exists.

The Mark said:

And since nations are made up of people, run by people, and there will most likely always be stupid people, the possiblity of wide-spread warfare exists.

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True, but individuals don't usually have unrestricted access to "big red buttons" that launch nukes, thankfully.

elbatrop said:

the US is a declining power, has been for quite awhile, but China isn't allyng with Russia for defensive reasons other than having reliable oil supply is defensive in its own right and Russia is the #1 or #2 world oil producer and has been for a couple years now.

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China wouldn't have a reliable oil supplier without allying with Russia? Oil is a commodity traded on a global market; it really doesn't matter who is allied with who, as long as you have the cash to buy it.

elbatrop said:

The US on the otherhand refuses to pay its debts,

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False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.

elbatrop said:

conducts its finances like a criminal,

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The finances of the United States are MUCH more transparent than those of either Russia or China.

elbatrop said:

and is a net oil importer with waning supply sources. China isn't stupid they see this too.

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China is also a net oil importer. :roll:

elbatrop said:

The United States unless it very very abruptly changes its ways or the rest of the world falls apart entirely will more than likley default,

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If a default is eminent as you say, then I suggest you take your life savings and bet against US sovereign debt. You'll make a fortune when you're right, since nearly every investor in the world will be betting against you. :roll:

elbatrop said:

Ponzi scheme economics doesn't last very long.

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Note: Randomly using the phrase "Ponzi scheme" doesn't make you sound like you know what you're talking about. It just makes you sound silly to those of us who actually know what the phrase means. :2wave:

Kandahar said:

China wouldn't have a reliable oil supplier without allying with Russia? Oil is a commodity traded on a global market; it really doesn't matter who is allied with who, as long as you have the cash to buy it.



False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.



The finances of the United States are MUCH more transparent than those of either Russia or China.



China is also a net oil importer. :roll:



If a default is eminent as you say, then I suggest you take your life savings and bet against US sovereign debt. You'll make a fortune when you're right, since nearly every investor in the world will be betting against you. :roll:



Note: Randomly using the phrase "Ponzi scheme" doesn't make you sound like you know what you're talking about. It just makes you sound silly to those of us who actually know what the phrase means. :2wave:

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False dichotomy, China is pursuing long term contracts and oil reserves all over the planet, it is a national security risk especially in time of war where supply lines can be cut. It has been official policy of the US for quite awhile, same with the UK to simply force access only. This is why we prop up dictators and meddle in others affairs but not always for oil but funny how we interefere in the affairs of almost every oil exporting nation on the planet. Russia has oil and is willing to build pipelines with long term supply contracts, very smart move by China. Leaving things to a market where net exports are shrinking is not smart, that is what the US is doing, hamstringed by its own policy. Its own reserves and suppliers already in terminal decline.

No the US has not and does not. In 1971 the US reneged on Bretton Woods which is a force majeure default, in response the currency devalued by a substantial amount over a few years and along with some other factors threw the nation into crisis. Meanwhile the debt continues to grow at an exponential rate never ever being paid off or down.

More transparent? probably but corrupt and criminal nonetheless. At any rate China has already told the US to pound sand on some CDO exposure, US deserves it. Act like a criminal get treated like one. Unfortunately for the US China can stiff arm loan shark tactics.

yes china is a net importer and they see what that means and are taking steps to deal with it as they should, the insane US policy is not a model to follow in their eyes evidently

already have, made a bundle, I retire in a month at age 43, I made an absolute killing shorting the insolvent US banks and its enough to relocate and retire on

Ponzi scheme? yes it applies, it must grow or it dies and relies on more and more suckers coming into the game, problem is it ran out of suckers and let debt over saturation to occur and now the FED is in a liquidity trap it said could never happen. Most banks are insolvent, pension plans, state and local govt's are all facing declines in revenue that will throw many into bankruptcy. While the FED and fractional reserve can survive short bouts of contraction long term contraction kills it dead. The need for exponential debt growth against a nearly linear actual economic growth is ponzi by its very nature. Biggest state bonds(California) are already in the toilet, so much so it can't even borrow more to bail its insolvent self out. About 40 states are short anywhere from 6% to 50%, it will be worse in 2011. Every nation that has gone down this path has failed, sometimes multiple times. Too much leverage is a killer, institutionalized over leverage is a death sentence and it is US official policy now. By the time the deflation gets done ravaging the US the chances of it surviving financially are slim, politically as well.

elbatrop said:

The need for exponential debt growth against a nearly linear actual economic growth is ponzi by its very nature.

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Why is debt growth exponential? Is it because we run a deficit and add the interest to the debt as well?

Every nation that has gone down this path has failed, sometimes multiple times. Too much leverage is a killer, institutionalized over leverage is a death sentence and it is US official policy now.

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How does this failure happen? What is the sequence of steps?

I love Wikipedia because the variety of well-explained information it carries. Much of this goes over my head in econometrics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance). Interesting none the less.

By the time the deflation gets done ravaging the US the chances of it surviving financially are slim, politically as well.

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I thought inflation was the risk we are running.

Hatuey said:

The world has seen what happens during world wars and I doubt it would be stupid enough to engage in one during the nuclear age.

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Sure it would be.

Read "The Origins of War", it illustrates exactly how national leaders get their dumb asses backed into a corner and they start wars better left unfought.

Happens all the time.

reefedjib said:

Why is debt growth exponential? Is it because we run a deficit and add the interest to the debt as well?



How does this failure happen? What is the sequence of steps?

I love Wikipedia because the variety of well-explained information it carries. Much of this goes over my head in econometrics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance). Interesting none the less.



I thought inflation was the risk we are running.

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Compound interest and fractional reserve, neither make it impossible to grow without debt getting way ahead of actual productive organic growth but it tends to get out of hand very quickly when not reigned in tightly.......they took the reigns off a long time ago. They also require growth to function, interest is never created, it just gets skimmed off the top. Money in fractional reserve debt based system only enters the system when loaned into existence, it leaves when loans are paid off or defaulted on. Interest is constantly sucked out which means if lending stops the system goes into a deflationary spiral because money is leaving the system and not being replaced faster than it leaves. This is what the US is in now and Japan has been in for about 20 years. Japan and the UK will likley default and soon, less than 5 years I'd say, probably sooner. UK has already basically defaulted once already and was forced to go to the IMF, it didn't learn from it.

Failure will happen when the govt an no longer finance its debt or borrow to finance it, at some point afterward the world will want more and more dollars to buy goods and the value of the dollar will drop to nothing. Once the world figures out that a country can't and won't honor its debt it defaults, they force it via currency value as the world now has floating fiat currency with no backing at all. First signs are failing bond auctions. The US cheated in 2009 and the FED printed money and bought the debt allowing the US govt to function, it is a self defeating thing to do long term though. Euphemistically called "quantitative easing" with excuse being it is to keep long term rates down but the fact of the matter is the world doesn't have enough cash to loan all the nations wanting to sell bonds to finance their deficits. Meanwhile it sits on the FED balance sheet and they face an avalanche of more debt turnover coming, double what 2009 was. It spirals quick and is nearly impossible to reign in once started.

isn't so much inflation per se that is dangerous but your currency going to zero value

inflation is the increase of money supply AND credit RELATIVE to economic activity

deflation is the opposite

symptoms of inflation are rising prices, but that is just a symptom, prices can change in a fiat regime regardless of money supply and credit or economic activity, right now prices are rising slowly while economic growth is stagnant or shrinking depending on how honestly you measure it. Our govt tends to tell big lies so take their numbers with a dose of salt.

the US went from less than a dollar of debt to make $1 of GDP to about $5 of debt to make $1 of GDP in a period of 30 years as its manufacturing leverage disappeared but kept acting like it was 30 years ago anyway, it blew up and now we are in a depression