View Poll Results: Is there still risk of "global war"(between 2 or more of 7 large powers)

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  • No

    4 7.14%
  • No, nuclear weapons make it impossible

    7 12.50%
  • Maybe

    13 23.21%
  • Yes

    30 53.57%
  • something else(explain)

    2 3.57%
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Thread: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

  1. #71
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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop View Post
    the US is a declining power, has been for quite awhile, but China isn't allyng with Russia for defensive reasons other than having reliable oil supply is defensive in its own right and Russia is the #1 or #2 world oil producer and has been for a couple years now.
    China wouldn't have a reliable oil supplier without allying with Russia? Oil is a commodity traded on a global market; it really doesn't matter who is allied with who, as long as you have the cash to buy it.

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop
    The US on the otherhand refuses to pay its debts,
    False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop
    conducts its finances like a criminal,
    The finances of the United States are MUCH more transparent than those of either Russia or China.

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop
    and is a net oil importer with waning supply sources. China isn't stupid they see this too.
    China is also a net oil importer.

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop
    The United States unless it very very abruptly changes its ways or the rest of the world falls apart entirely will more than likley default,
    If a default is eminent as you say, then I suggest you take your life savings and bet against US sovereign debt. You'll make a fortune when you're right, since nearly every investor in the world will be betting against you.

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop
    Ponzi scheme economics doesn't last very long.
    Note: Randomly using the phrase "Ponzi scheme" doesn't make you sound like you know what you're talking about. It just makes you sound silly to those of us who actually know what the phrase means.
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  2. #72
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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    China wouldn't have a reliable oil supplier without allying with Russia? Oil is a commodity traded on a global market; it really doesn't matter who is allied with who, as long as you have the cash to buy it.



    False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.



    The finances of the United States are MUCH more transparent than those of either Russia or China.



    China is also a net oil importer.



    If a default is eminent as you say, then I suggest you take your life savings and bet against US sovereign debt. You'll make a fortune when you're right, since nearly every investor in the world will be betting against you.



    Note: Randomly using the phrase "Ponzi scheme" doesn't make you sound like you know what you're talking about. It just makes you sound silly to those of us who actually know what the phrase means.
    False dichotomy, China is pursuing long term contracts and oil reserves all over the planet, it is a national security risk especially in time of war where supply lines can be cut. It has been official policy of the US for quite awhile, same with the UK to simply force access only. This is why we prop up dictators and meddle in others affairs but not always for oil but funny how we interefere in the affairs of almost every oil exporting nation on the planet. Russia has oil and is willing to build pipelines with long term supply contracts, very smart move by China. Leaving things to a market where net exports are shrinking is not smart, that is what the US is doing, hamstringed by its own policy. Its own reserves and suppliers already in terminal decline.

    No the US has not and does not. In 1971 the US reneged on Bretton Woods which is a force majeure default, in response the currency devalued by a substantial amount over a few years and along with some other factors threw the nation into crisis. Meanwhile the debt continues to grow at an exponential rate never ever being paid off or down.

    More transparent? probably but corrupt and criminal nonetheless. At any rate China has already told the US to pound sand on some CDO exposure, US deserves it. Act like a criminal get treated like one. Unfortunately for the US China can stiff arm loan shark tactics.

    yes china is a net importer and they see what that means and are taking steps to deal with it as they should, the insane US policy is not a model to follow in their eyes evidently

    already have, made a bundle, I retire in a month at age 43, I made an absolute killing shorting the insolvent US banks and its enough to relocate and retire on

    Ponzi scheme? yes it applies, it must grow or it dies and relies on more and more suckers coming into the game, problem is it ran out of suckers and let debt over saturation to occur and now the FED is in a liquidity trap it said could never happen. Most banks are insolvent, pension plans, state and local govt's are all facing declines in revenue that will throw many into bankruptcy. While the FED and fractional reserve can survive short bouts of contraction long term contraction kills it dead. The need for exponential debt growth against a nearly linear actual economic growth is ponzi by its very nature. Biggest state bonds(California) are already in the toilet, so much so it can't even borrow more to bail its insolvent self out. About 40 states are short anywhere from 6% to 50%, it will be worse in 2011. Every nation that has gone down this path has failed, sometimes multiple times. Too much leverage is a killer, institutionalized over leverage is a death sentence and it is US official policy now. By the time the deflation gets done ravaging the US the chances of it surviving financially are slim, politically as well.
    Last edited by elbatrop; 01-24-10 at 07:39 PM.

  3. #73
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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop View Post
    The need for exponential debt growth against a nearly linear actual economic growth is ponzi by its very nature.
    Why is debt growth exponential? Is it because we run a deficit and add the interest to the debt as well?

    Every nation that has gone down this path has failed, sometimes multiple times. Too much leverage is a killer, institutionalized over leverage is a death sentence and it is US official policy now.
    How does this failure happen? What is the sequence of steps?

    I love Wikipedia because the variety of well-explained information it carries. Much of this goes over my head in econometrics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance). Interesting none the less.

    By the time the deflation gets done ravaging the US the chances of it surviving financially are slim, politically as well.
    I thought inflation was the risk we are running.

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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hatuey View Post
    The world has seen what happens during world wars and I doubt it would be stupid enough to engage in one during the nuclear age.
    Sure it would be.

    Read "The Origins of War", it illustrates exactly how national leaders get their dumb asses backed into a corner and they start wars better left unfought.

    Happens all the time.

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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by reefedjib View Post
    Why is debt growth exponential? Is it because we run a deficit and add the interest to the debt as well?



    How does this failure happen? What is the sequence of steps?

    I love Wikipedia because the variety of well-explained information it carries. Much of this goes over my head in econometrics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance). Interesting none the less.



    I thought inflation was the risk we are running.
    Compound interest and fractional reserve, neither make it impossible to grow without debt getting way ahead of actual productive organic growth but it tends to get out of hand very quickly when not reigned in tightly.......they took the reigns off a long time ago. They also require growth to function, interest is never created, it just gets skimmed off the top. Money in fractional reserve debt based system only enters the system when loaned into existence, it leaves when loans are paid off or defaulted on. Interest is constantly sucked out which means if lending stops the system goes into a deflationary spiral because money is leaving the system and not being replaced faster than it leaves. This is what the US is in now and Japan has been in for about 20 years. Japan and the UK will likley default and soon, less than 5 years I'd say, probably sooner. UK has already basically defaulted once already and was forced to go to the IMF, it didn't learn from it.

    Failure will happen when the govt an no longer finance its debt or borrow to finance it, at some point afterward the world will want more and more dollars to buy goods and the value of the dollar will drop to nothing. Once the world figures out that a country can't and won't honor its debt it defaults, they force it via currency value as the world now has floating fiat currency with no backing at all. First signs are failing bond auctions. The US cheated in 2009 and the FED printed money and bought the debt allowing the US govt to function, it is a self defeating thing to do long term though. Euphemistically called "quantitative easing" with excuse being it is to keep long term rates down but the fact of the matter is the world doesn't have enough cash to loan all the nations wanting to sell bonds to finance their deficits. Meanwhile it sits on the FED balance sheet and they face an avalanche of more debt turnover coming, double what 2009 was. It spirals quick and is nearly impossible to reign in once started.

    isn't so much inflation per se that is dangerous but your currency going to zero value

    inflation is the increase of money supply AND credit RELATIVE to economic activity

    deflation is the opposite

    symptoms of inflation are rising prices, but that is just a symptom, prices can change in a fiat regime regardless of money supply and credit or economic activity, right now prices are rising slowly while economic growth is stagnant or shrinking depending on how honestly you measure it. Our govt tends to tell big lies so take their numbers with a dose of salt.

    the US went from less than a dollar of debt to make $1 of GDP to about $5 of debt to make $1 of GDP in a period of 30 years as its manufacturing leverage disappeared but kept acting like it was 30 years ago anyway, it blew up and now we are in a depression
    Last edited by elbatrop; 01-24-10 at 08:13 PM.

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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by reefedjib View Post
    Why is debt growth exponential? Is it because we run a deficit and add the interest to the debt as well?
    it's because government programs never die.

    I was watching "Time Warp" last night and discovered the National Endowment for the Arts gave a man taxpayer dollars to blow bubbles.

    The demand is always for more and more completely unconstitutional programs, and the politicians are eager to buy the votes of these people, and be damned to those who say nay.

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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    False. The United States has ALWAYS made good on its debts.
    Depending on who you listen to, the United States currently has some 60-120 TRILLION dollars of unfunded obligations.

    That word "always".....should always be used catiously.

    I've always avoided breaking my legs.

    But, then again, I didn't purposely impose Socialist Security on a formerly free nation, either, now did I?
    Last edited by Scarecrow Akhbar; 01-24-10 at 08:19 PM.

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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by elbatrop View Post
    Compound interest and fractional reserve, neither make it impossible to grow without debt getting way ahead of actual productive organic growth but it tends to get out of hand very quickly when not reigned in tightly.......they took the reigns off a long time ago. They also require growth to function, interest is never created, it just gets skimmed off the top. Money in fractional reserve debt based system only enters the system when loaned into existence, it leaves when loans are paid off or defaulted on. Interest is constantly sucked out which means if lending stops the system goes into a deflationary spiral because money is leaving the system and not being replaced faster than it leaves. This is what the US is in now and Japan has been in for about 20 years. Japan and the UK will likley default and soon, less than 5 years I'd say, probably sooner. UK has already basically defaulted once already and was forced to go to the IMF, it didn't learn from it.

    Failure will happen when the govt an no longer finance its debt or borrow to finance it, at some point afterward the world will want more and more dollars to buy goods and the value of the dollar will drop to nothing. Once the world figures out that a country can't and won't honor its debt it defaults, they force it via currency value as the world now has floating fiat currency with no backing at all. First signs are failing bond auctions. The US cheated in 2009 and the FED printed money and bought the debt allowing the US govt to function, it is a self defeating thing to do long term though. Euphemistically called "quantitative easing" with excuse being it is to keep long term rates down but the fact of the matter is the world doesn't have enough cash to loan all the nations wanting to sell bonds to finance their deficits. Meanwhile it sits on the FED balance sheet and they face an avalanche of more debt turnover coming, double what 2009 was. It spirals quick and is nearly impossible to reign in once started.

    isn't so much inflation per se that is dangerous but your currency going to zero value

    inflation is the increase of money supply AND credit RELATIVE to economic activity

    deflation is the opposite

    symptoms of inflation are rising prices, but that is just a symptom, prices can change in a fiat regime regardless of money supply and credit or economic activity

    the US went from less than a dollar of debt to make $1 of GDP to about $5 of debt to make $1 of GDP in a period of 30 years as its manufacturing leverage disappeared but kept acting like it was 30 years ago anyway, it blew up and now we are in a depression
    Thanks. I had to look up several terms again. This was interresting: http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/09/def..._inflatio.html

    So what is the best course of action, assuming we aren't already to far gone in the death spiral? Cut the deficit, right? But having sufficient government spending to prop up GDP helps the economy recover. Which is the better short-term vs long-term solution?
    Last edited by reefedjib; 01-24-10 at 08:31 PM.

  9. #79
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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by creativedreams View Post
    China is getting ready for something big as is Russia...

    China has been hacking into the U.S. Military and Government Networks waging a cyber-war.



    July 2009: There were a series of coordinated attacks against major government, media, financial websites in the United States...

    Ghost Net: is the name given to a large scale cyber operation discovered in March 2009. It's command and control infrastructure is based mainly in China. This operation by China has infiltrated high value government offices, political, economic, media computer systems in the U.S. and 103 countries.

    Titan Rain: is U.S. Governments designated name given to a series of coordinated attacks on American State Sponsored Computer Systems and Corporate Espionage since 2003 that were Chinese in origin and the result of Chinese Military Hackers gathering information on U.S. Systems. This attack gained access to copy information from many U.S. Military Networks.

    Moonlight Maze: is U.S. Governments designated name given to a series of coordinated attacks on U.S. Computer Systems in 1999. The attacks were traced back to Moscow Russia. Those cyber warfare attacks obtained large amounts of data including classified Military Codes and Missile Guidance Systems.


    For those of you who have some stereotype of China's Military capabilities I can give you a rude awakening that the U.S. propaganda bubble would not show you...
    YouTube- China Military Power 2009 δΈ*ε›½ε€§ι™†ε†›ι˜Ÿ2009ι’„ε‘Š
    Yep, more circumstantial conspiracy bull****. I don't know why anyone even bothers with you ...

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    Re: Do you believe in the possibility of a new global war?

    Quote Originally Posted by reefedjib View Post
    Thanks. I had to look up several terms again.

    So what is the best course of action, assuming we aren't already to far gone in the death spiral? Cut the deficit, right? But having sufficient government spending to prop up GDP helps the economy recover. Which is the better short-term vs long-term solution?
    Phasing out unnecessary spending, phasing out unconstitutional, and hence illegal, spending, cutting taxes to spur economic growth.

    Implement a short-term emergency program to build brick walls in front of national and state legislatures, from which shall also be erected gallows for the education of the politicians as to who the real masters of the country are and what their final answer to certain problem causing people might be.

    But first....cease all new spending, cut taxes to spur growth. If Obama says something is a "mistake of the past", we should probably be doing it.

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