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Thread: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

  1. #21
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Those with more ecucation and intellect will continue to be "rich", while the poor will stay that way.
    Education, and for several generations is always the answer.
    With the conservatives in power(or near power as it is in our nation) the gap between rich and poor will continue to widen.
    This gap will, I believe, shrink with the Liberals in power..
    This, we do not have in our country, and this may never happen..
    Sad.
    Its a quality of the people thing.

  2. #22
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    The numbers don't add. Both Germany and France have a low GDP and still have a slow economic growth.
    Really, do they?

    Nominal.

    Quote Originally Posted by wikipedia(sorry, didnt have time to find the proper datasets, but these are correct)
    International Monetary Fund (2008)
    13 United States 47,440
    14 Belgium 47,289
    15 Australia 46,824
    16 France 46,037
    17 Kuwait 45,920
    18 Canada 45,085
    19 Germany 44,729

    World Bank (2008)
    12 United States 46,716
    13 Belgium 46,487
    14 France 45,982
    15 Germany 44,471
    Now, you are going to point to PPP values, for sure, because the US is still ahead a bit there, by about 20%. The problem with that is, the US have nominal wage decreases the past 5 years, and this trend seems to continue. Also the US have higher inflation than the Eurozone at least, probably also higher than the EU27.
    The EU on the other hand, is enjoying high wage growth, 3-5%, with lower average inflation than the EU. This is creating a situation where the EU ppp is rapidly catching up to that of the US..

    So I ask you then, is the GDP of France and Germany really low? And the PPP of France and Germany is rapidly improving while that of the US is in decline. What does that tell you?

    GDP doesnt really matter that much anyways. To do a proper analyzes have a look at the health of the companies and the nature of the economic stability and growth. When that growth comes from debt for example, as oppose to industrial or service sector growth, then that growth is really not growth, its borrowed growth, and will only contribute to reverse and slow that growth again later. Also the nature of the total economy matters, for example the UK have the largest financial sector economy of the world, a sector that in reality only works to steal money from the hard working people of other sectors.

    Such is the nature of the economy in very basic term, and pointing to a war of GDP numbers and silly nationalism, is not going to get this economic debate interesting.

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Their productivity increase is also low. This is not a good performing industry. It doesn't matter if France ddn't get hit that bad by the economic crisis. (Germany did) Its a crisis. You recover from crisis, and the reality is. Europe as a whole did much worse in this crisis even though it was U.S. problem originally.
    The productivity growth is slow, but its also slow in the US. A reason for this could be that the world has reached a "limit". And with other countries growing much faster now, there is little real need for increased western productivity. IMO. There are many reasons for it, but thats what I think. Even so, per hour productivity is better in France and Germany than in the US.

    Europe has done quite ok in this crisis, we only shed of growth that came from unrealistic sources. The US is our largest market, and of course we will be hit by a US crisis. An interesting fact however is, that all the worlds largest banks(in terms of sales and holdings) are European. So yes, when the bank sector is shaking, even solidly capitalized European banks are hit.


    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    They certinally don't have good firms (source, please and I want statistics), because then they wouldn't have that slow economic growth.
    The World's Biggest Companies - Forbes.com

    Have a look at all sectors of businesses. Look at their sales/profits and holdings rather than market value. Also keep in mind France/Germany is tiny geographically compared with the US and has together only half the population. Yet, look, the best companies are German/French ones, while European companies dominates most sectors, except retail, media and 1 or two other where US companies dominate.

    Also consider the sectors and start thinking about which sectors are really important. For example, weight durable goods against drugs, and think of the level of corruption in this sectors. Then think about all sectors and how they are important/unimportant etc, and then look at how European companies dominate every sector, except medical equipment, which is an important sector that the US dominate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Spain haven't had unemployment under 10% for 10-15 years. Germany may still have a lot of old firms, but they do badly and that's why Germany also does badly.
    German unemployment has risen least of all economies of the west during the economic crisis. Germany now has about 7.5% unemployment(eurostat). French unemployment hasnt risen much, while US and UK unemployment has, revealing where all the uneccesary jobs are.

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Iceland wildly bought up overseas firms and guess what, they are now in a debt crisis because they borrow to be able to buy up overseas firms.
    Iceland is tiny and they did the mistake of not being in the Eurozone or EU.

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Spain has a current account defecit which is 10% of GDP, hence they are doing the same . It's not sustainable.
    True.. This is the weakest point of the European economy, the Spanish deficit, which is only countered by the huge German surplus, which is not a proper correction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    However, you forgot some of their problems. Their demographic problem.
    That theory is interesting yes...


    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    These problems are mostly future problems, and they allready have slow economic growth and low GDP. How can Europe be in a good position, I think is mostly wishful thinking, because it certinally isn't based on evidence.
    I think the population decrease is an oppertunity. Also they dont have slow economic growth and low GDP which I proved above. Slow economic growth in unneseccary sectors yes, ok..
    Europe is illegally occupied by the US

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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Now, you are going to point to PPP values, for sure, because the US is still ahead a bit there, by about 20%. The problem with that is, the US have nominal wage decreases the past 5 years, and this trend seems to continue. Also the US have higher inflation than the Eurozone at least, probably also higher than the EU27.
    The EU on the other hand, is enjoying high wage growth, 3-5%, with lower average inflation than the EU. This is creating a situation where the EU ppp is rapidly catching up to that of the US..

    So I ask you then, is the GDP of France and Germany really low? And the PPP of France and Germany is rapidly improving while that of the US is in decline. What does that tell you?
    No, it's not EUs PPP is not catching up to the US and predictions show low PPP growth for the coming years. The argument that because they have high wage growth, but not so high inflation is flawed and wrong. GDP (ppp) is based on productivity.

    Also, we base ourself on PPP number. Because Iceland halved it's nominal GDP the last year, but does that mean the productivity of Iceland is halved. Of course not.

    Here is the real list based on PPP.
    1 Qatar 86,008
    2 Luxembourg 82,441
    3 Norway 53,738
    4 Singapore 51,226
    5 Brunei 50,199
    6 United States 47,440
    — Hong Kong 43,847
    7 Switzerland 43,196
    8 Ireland 42,110
    9 Netherlands 40,558
    10 Iceland 40,471
    11 Kuwait 39,915
    12 Austria 39,887
    13 Canada 39,098
    14 United Arab Emirates 38,894
    15 Sweden 37,334
    16 Denmark 37,304
    17 Australia 36,918
    18 Belgium 36,416
    19 United Kingdom 36,358
    20 Finland 36,320
    21 Germany 35,539
    22 Bahrain 34,662
    23 France 34,205
    24 Japan 34,116
    25 Republic of China (Taiwan) 30,912
    26 Greece 30,681
    27 Italy 30,631
    28 Spain 30,589

    GDP doesnt really matter that much anyways. To do a proper analyzes have a look at the health of the companies and the nature of the economic stability and growth. When that growth comes from debt for example, as oppose to industrial or service sector growth, then that growth is really not growth, its borrowed growth, and will only contribute to reverse and slow that growth again later. Also the nature of the total economy matters, for example the UK have the largest financial sector economy of the world, a sector that in reality only works to steal money from the hard working people of other sectors.

    Such is the nature of the economy in very basic term, and pointing to a war of GDP numbers and silly nationalism, is not going to get this economic debate interesting.
    When people start saying that we shouldn't concern ourself about GDP, productivity and similar, then they just try to defend their own country poor performance.

    In todays world. You need to compete to be able to live, because if you don't then there are no guarantees for future wealth. Look around yourself, how much was made in your home country?

    The productivity growth is slow, but its also slow in the US. A reason for this could be that the world has reached a "limit". And with other countries growing much faster now, there is little real need for increased western productivity. IMO. There are many reasons for it, but thats what I think. Even so, per hour productivity is better in France and Germany than in the US.

    Europe has done quite ok in this crisis, we only shed of growth that came from unrealistic sources. The US is our largest market, and of course we will be hit by a US crisis. An interesting fact however is, that all the worlds largest banks(in terms of sales and holdings) are European. So yes, when the bank sector is shaking, even solidly capitalized European banks are hit.
    Not like Europe. Many countries in Europe have nearly had none productivity growth. In the US productivity has slowed down, but it hasn't stopped. Don't take future wealth for granted. Beeing rich yesterday is not a promise for future wealth.

    Of course per hour is increasing. What do you excpect when people work less hours? I However, my point is that Europe is performing badly, and there are a lot of future problems to come, and they are not opportunities. They are problems.

    Have a look at all sectors of businesses. Look at their sales/profits and holdings rather than market value. Also keep in mind France/Germany is tiny geographically compared with the US and has together only half the population. Yet, look, the best companies are German/French ones, while European companies dominates most sectors, except retail, media and 1 or two other where US companies dominate.

    Also consider the sectors and start thinking about which sectors are really important. For example, weight durable goods against drugs, and think of the level of corruption in this sectors. Then think about all sectors and how they are important/unimportant etc, and then look at how European companies dominate every sector, except medical equipment, which is an important sector that the US dominate.
    That's because Europe has been previously succesful and they are pretty much all old companies. Geographical area is not the determinant for the place. It's number of people, and Europe has a much bigger population. However, this is like kids comparing how strong their Dads are. It has no relevance to Europe performance.

    And, it doesn't matter how important a sector it is. Money is money. You are just trying to make up excuses for Europe bad performance.

    However, by the population Europe should have two third of the companies, and because it's not really fair due to localization. We remove oil companies. I also remove non-european and non-american companies,

    1 General Electric United States
    6 HSBC Holdings United Kingdom Banking
    7 AT&T United States Telecommunications Services
    8 Wal-Mart Stores United States Retailing
    9 Banco Santander Spain Banking
    15 Volkswagen Group Germany Consumer Durables
    16 JPMorgan Chase United States Banking
    17 GDF Suez France Utilities
    19 Berkshire Hathaway United States Diversified Financials
    20 Vodafone United Kingdom Telecommunications
    22 Procter & Gamble United States Household & Personal Products
    24 Verizon Communications United States Telecommunications Services
    27 EDF Group France Utilities
    28 IBM United States Software & Services
    29 BNP Paribas France Banking

    I actually think United States beats Europe in this one. It also seems like US got more useful companies, just mention because it's so important for you. To base your economy on banking it's not very smart.

    German unemployment has risen least of all economies of the west during the economic crisis. Germany now has about 7.5% unemployment(eurostat). French unemployment hasnt risen much, while US and UK unemployment has, revealing where all the uneccesary jobs are.
    Just excuses. Germany reduced their unemployment by jobsharing programs. A good way to hide unemployment, but in reality Germany was hit hard by the crisis and is also entering a demographic crisis.

    Iceland is tiny and they did the mistake of not being in the Eurozone or EU.
    Ok, what about Argentina, Latvia, Greece. Beeing small has nothing to do with it, neither do EU.

    True.. This is the weakest point of the European economy, the Spanish deficit, which is only countered by the huge German surplus, which is not a proper correction.
    Really? What about Greece, Italy an other European countries defiecits? What about about the countries in East Europe? What about the demographic crisis?

    I think the population decrease is an oppertunity. Also they dont have slow economic growth and low GDP which I proved above. Slow economic growth in unneseccary sectors yes, ok..
    Slow economic growth in unneseccary sectors? Seriously! What kind of bull**** excuse is that? Population decrease an opportunity? It is a problem, not a opportunity. It means that less people have to sustain more people. That means lower GDP, higher taxes, worse public sector or public deficit.

    You are a classical example of why EU are doing so litte, because you consider yorself flawless. If I mention that EU has a slow economic growth, then you tell it's only slow in uneccesary sectors. If I tell EUs economy is performing badly, then you will begin comparing size of companies, which has pretty much no relevance.

    However, the points I make for why EU got trouble, you don't even answer at all. The demographic problem is only a opportunity or some bull. The immigration dilemma wasn't even answered.
    Last edited by Camlon; 01-19-10 at 09:00 PM.

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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarecrow Akhbar View Post
    American pundits like to discuss the ten trillion dollar deficit.

    They're lying by a minimum of two full orders of magnitude.

    Nothing will be done because few discuss the problem and those few are ignored or relegated to "crackpot" status and then ignored.
    I'm surprised that no one has addressed this yet.

    Are you really saying that you think our national debt is at minimum a quadrillion dollars? Do you have any data at all to back up that ludicrous claim?
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  5. #25
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by molten_dragon View Post
    I'm surprised that no one has addressed this yet.

    Are you really saying that you think our national debt is at minimum a quadrillion dollars? Do you have any data at all to back up that ludicrous claim?
    He was exaggerating a little, but take a look at this.

    U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

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  6. #26
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    No, it's not EUs PPP is not catching up to the US and predictions show low PPP growth for the coming years. The argument that because they have high wage growth, but not so high inflation is flawed and wrong. GDP (ppp) is based on productivity.
    Its not flawed at all... Its completely correct.
    You seem to be delusional about the economic reality. European purchasing power is increasing, while American puchasing power is decreasing.

    European countries have passed the US in nominal GDP. You are still living in an economic world where you think there is one currency, and that you can keep using the most favourable numbers for the benefit of your own US nationalism.
    Italies nominal GDP has not risen much, although its a part of the Eurozone, something that is very interesting. Wages are declining in Italy, while prices rose, which reflects in even worse PPP numbers for them. But we were comparing Germany and France with the US and the UK. And clearly economic prospects look far better in Germany and France then they do in the US and the UK.



    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Also, we base ourself on PPP number. Because Iceland halved it's nominal GDP the last year, but does that mean the productivity of Iceland is halved. Of course not.
    Again for your own delusional purposes you try to pick apart my argumentation that the French and German economies are far more solidly anchored, stable and prosperous than the UK and US economis. And you do this by mentioning Iceland?

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    When people start saying that we shouldn't concern ourself about GDP, productivity and similar, then they just try to defend their own country poor performance.
    Like I showed, nominal GDP is higher in most of Europe than the US now. It wasnt before. Also PP is catching up incredibly fast, because US wages are declining and prices are rising. In Europe wages are increasing faster than prices.

    Those are the things that really matter, thats what the people will feel, and in the US things are getting desperate these days. All your large companies are in crisis, even traditional companies such as Ford and GM.. Same is not happening in Europe. Volkswagen is about to become the largest car manufacturer in the world, competing with a declining GM and a relatively healthy Toyota.

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    In todays world. You need to compete to be able to live, because if you don't then there are no guarantees for future wealth. Look around yourself, how much was made in your home country?
    Most durable goods, most good machinery are made in Europe. Software and such is made in the US, and good movies, congrats!

    The Eurozone is a bigger economy than the US now, and the European Union is the largest economic zone in the world, by large margin. Europe is the most diverse investment region, and the most diverse and exciting market, and it offers far superior oppertunities to the US. How can the US compete with a reunited Europe west(who makes better things) and east(who maker cheaper things)?


    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Not like Europe. Many countries in Europe have nearly had none productivity growth. In the US productivity has slowed down, but it hasn't stopped. Don't take future wealth for granted. Beeing rich yesterday is not a promise for future wealth.
    Delusions? Yes.. Like I told you, we already passed the US in nominal GDP, and are about to do so in PPP also.


    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Of course per hour is increasing. What do you excpect when people work less hours? I However, my point is that Europe is performing badly, and there are a lot of future problems to come, and they are not opportunities. They are problems.
    There are future problems for the world, and non of those are European problems, mostly global problems, but also problems created by the type of economy the US is.



    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    1 General Electric United States
    6 HSBC Holdings United Kingdom Banking
    7 AT&T United States Telecommunications Services
    8 Wal-Mart Stores United States Retailing
    9 Banco Santander Spain Banking
    15 Volkswagen Group Germany Consumer Durables
    16 JPMorgan Chase United States Banking
    17 GDF Suez France Utilities
    19 Berkshire Hathaway United States Diversified Financials
    20 Vodafone United Kingdom Telecommunications
    22 Procter & Gamble United States Household & Personal Products
    24 Verizon Communications United States Telecommunications Services
    27 EDF Group France Utilities
    28 IBM United States Software & Services
    29 BNP Paribas France Banking

    You really are delusional.. Market value?
    Ahah.. Besides European banks are well capitalized like I said, perhaps its time for you to digg deeper into things instead of just understanding the pretty picture shown at you or scratching the surface...

    Anyways, I told you to do it sector by sector.. But you didnt.
    Last edited by Maximus Zeebra; 01-20-10 at 02:28 PM.
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    He was exaggerating a little, but take a look at this.

    U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
    I'm aware it's larger than people are making it out to be, but claiming it's two full orders of magnitude larger is a blatant lie.
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    You seem to be delusional about the economic reality. European purchasing power is increasing, while American puchasing power is decreasing.

    European countries have passed the US in nominal GDP. You are still living in an economic world where you think there is one currency, and that you can keep using the most favourable numbers for the benefit of your own US nationalism.
    Italies nominal GDP has not risen much, although its a part of the Eurozone, something that is very interesting. Wages are declining in Italy, while prices rose, which reflects in even worse PPP numbers for them. But we were comparing Germany and France with the US and the UK. And clearly economic prospects look far better in Germany and France then they do in the US and the UK.
    No, I use the GDP value I would always use. Read your own wikipedia article. They also say that GDP (nominal) is not for comparisons.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    Its not flawed at all... Its completely correct.
    You seem to be delusional about the economic reality. European purchasing power is increasing, while American puchasing power is decreasing.
    No it''s not real GDP growth per capita for the US is larger than the EU. EU-15 from 2001 had a average growth rate of 1.5%, while the US had a growth rate of 2.6%. You are delusional about the world and you don't even know the real GDP growth for the US and EU. How the heck should you be able to compare which country who perform best? When you don't know such basic facts, then you should admit that you don't really know very much about the economy. And I'm not even from the US, so why should I be a US nationalist. I'm from Europe. In reality it is you who are the nationalist.
    http://www.house.gov/jec/publications/109/rr109-25.pdf


    Again for your own delusional purposes you try to pick apart my argumentation that the French and German economies are far more solidly anchored, stable and prosperous than the UK and US economis. And you do this by mentioning Iceland?
    No, I'm just using iceland as an example to show how wrong you are by using nominal figures. It doesn't matter what state Iceland is, is the productivity halved?

    Like I showed, nominal GDP is higher in most of Europe than the US now. It wasnt before. Also PP is catching up incredibly fast, because US wages are declining and prices are rising. In Europe wages are increasing faster than prices.

    Those are the things that really matter, thats what the people will feel, and in the US things are getting desperate these days. All your large companies are in crisis, even traditional companies such as Ford and GM.. Same is not happening in Europe. Volkswagen is about to become the largest car manufacturer in the world, competing with a declining GM and a relatively healthy Toyota.
    Your argument that GDP PPP is catching up is completly wrong. Companies are doing badly in Europe too. What did recently happend with Saab? That's certinally a traditional company. I would also prefer to use statistics, rather than listing companies who failed. Although GM didn't fail, Saab did.



    Most durable goods, most good machinery are made in Europe. Software and such is made in the US, and good movies, congrats!

    The Eurozone is a bigger economy than the US now, and the European Union is the largest economic zone in the world, by large margin. Europe is the most diverse investment region, and the most diverse and exciting market, and it offers far superior oppertunities to the US. How can the US compete with a reunited Europe west(who makes better things) and east(who maker cheaper things)?
    I didn't ask what is made in Europe, although certinally not all good machinery is produced in Europe.

    I asked you how much in your house is made by your home country. The fact is Europe is heavily dependant on trade, much more than the US too. Hence, you need to compete, because beeing rich today doesn't mean beeing rich tomorrow. If all goods you produce in your own country has low value in the market, then you won't be able to import very much either.

    There are future problems for the world, and non of those are European problems, mostly global problems, but also problems created by the type of economy the US is.
    You really think you are flawless, do you? Everything you do is perfect? What about the problems I listed, which your answer was interesting and no answer. Aren't those problems? No, they are not opportunities.

    You also hate the US, don't you?

    You really are delusional.. Market value?
    Ahah.. Besides European banks are well capitalized like I said, perhaps its time for you to digg deeper into things instead of just understanding the pretty picture shown at you or scratching the surface...

    Anyways, I told you to do it sector by sector.. But you didnt.
    I just used the ranking like your source made it. So if I am delusional for using the ranking, then those making the list must also be delusional.

    You have pretty much no knowledge of the world, and in your head you think yourself are perfect. You are not. One of the reason EU has got so many problems is because of people like you. People who can never acknowledge their own mistakes. In good times people like you yell out how good you are. When things go badly, then you start denying and when everything is so bad there is no possible way to deny it, then you become cry babies and blame your own mistakes on everyone else.

    Why didn't you answer the problems I listed. Do you feel you are too important to answer me? If EU is in so good shape, why don't you answer me, and tell me how they are not problems? And please do it better than last time when you just said they weren't problems, just opportunities and completly ignored some of them.
    Last edited by Camlon; 01-20-10 at 07:34 PM.

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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    - Skjuler enorme mengder statsgjeld | Nyhetsarkivet | BÝrs og finans | E24
    Article is not in English, sorry. Cant find the equivilant English one. This however is a serious scandinavian economics newspaper.



    He goes on to talk about how the real debts og governments are even higher than they admit, and that they hide real numbers. The official debt is scarily high, but real numbers are even more scary.

    The point of this thread,is that Zulauf is talking about something that is inevitable in all scenarios. That the indebted western governments will have to start taxing more and cutting spendings to avoid a complete economic meltdown. He goes on to mention how states have tried to solve a debt faith crisis by taking on more debt and how this further damages the economies.

    He talks about how higher taxes will be detrimental to an already vulnerable position we have with weak economies in financial crisis(which is really just a correction IMO).

    Topping this with the end of the stimulous spending will create a situation where the population of the west have to face the reality.

    What is your prediction?
    No prediction, just a comment.

    Oh Fy Fan!

    I think we should trust government with more.

    Give them health care, funding student loans... let them micro manage everything.

    They know best and are most responsible with our money.

    They'd never do anything to deceive us. Never. Ever.


    .
    Last edited by zimmer; 01-20-10 at 07:33 PM.
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    Re: Enourmous amounts of hidden state debt

    Quote Originally Posted by zimmer View Post
    No prediction, just a comment.

    Oh Fy Fan!

    I think we should trust government with more.

    Give them health care, funding student loans... let them micro manage everything.

    They know best and are most responsible with our money.

    They'd never do anything to deceive us. Never. Ever.


    .
    This is true as long as the government represent the people. With current democracy, clown election and country elite/rich in power of politics, this is not the case. But ideally yes, the people knows best how to come to verious agreements of how to best micromanage themself.

    I am sure in a sane functioning society, everyone can agree that preventive measures such as bans on unhealthy food(defined by the people), and preventive exercise/activity partly funded by the state, would be far better for the people than sitting on their asses all the time eating sugar cane containing things and unhealthy food.

    But hey, what your sarcasm is describing Zimmer, is not a sane society. Its a society where the elite feeds the people with addictions, to keep letting them know what the **** ever they want without the people understanding anything, being enslaved by corporations, media, government and such through manipulative media..

    But hey, then again, you probably have abolutely no idea about what I am talking about.
    Europe is illegally occupied by the US

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