View Poll Results: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill?

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Thread: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

  1. #11
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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    They still need 60 in the Senate. But assuming the final bill doesn't deviate too much from what the Senate already agreed on, I think it's a foregone conclusion at this point.

    The House only needs a simple majority, which shouldn't be difficult at all.
    Yeah, just looked it up. With the 60 votes needed, the House is going to have to give, and they know they will. Like I said earlier, there is too much at stake politically for either house to not pass this.
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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Nate Silver's analysis on this:


    How could the bill die? There are basically five ways:

    1) There is a 'surprise' conservative vote against cloture. Technically, speaking, there are not 60 Democrats who have formally stated that they'd vote yes. Or, someone could renege on their promise to vote yes. With Snowe -- and presumably Collins -- apparently poised to vote against the measure, there is no margin for error.

    Still, being good Bayesians about all this, it seems likely that we would have heard something if this were the case. After all, announcing one's potential opposition to the bill is a highly profitable enterprise: Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, and Mary Landrieu have at various points in the past two weeks leveraged their threats into either significant changes to the bill text (Nelson and especially Lieberman) or significant 'bonuses'/bribes for their states (Landrieu and Nelson). To announce one's opposition now would probably just kill the bill outright, and fail to extract any such concessions. Therefore, this seems unlikely, although it's certainly not impossible. The odds probably improve from 'very unlikely' to merely 'unlikely' if the Republicans succeed in delaying the floor vote until after Christmas.

    2) There is a 'surprise' liberal vote against cloture. As Chris Bowers has pointed out, while Democrats like Bernie Sanders and Roland Burris have threatened not to vote for the bill upon final passage, none have yet threatened -- much less pledged -- to vote with the Republicans on a filibuster. Also, the amendments forced by Nelson appear to be somewhat milder than what I had been anticipating, and Reid has also introduced a couple of changes that the liberals should like, such as a ban on lifetime coverage limits. So, although the senators we are dealing with -- particularly Roland Burris -- are somewhat unpredictable, this too seems unlikely.

    3) The bill receives 60 votes for cloture, but fewer than 50 for final passage. We mention this for the sake of completeness, but it seems extremely unlikely as most of the 'veto points' in the Senate, like Nelson and Evan Bayh, have essentially been treating their cloture vote as equivalent to an up-or-down vote. Nor is there enough potential liberal opposition. If Nelson, Lieberman, Bayh, Landrieu, and Lincoln (from the right) and Burris, Sanders and Feingold (from the left) all voted against final passage, that would still leave the bill with two extra votes to spare.

    4) The House votes against the conference report. According to many sources, including the White House in their Thursday conference call, there is still highly likely to be a conference report in order to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the bill -- which of course contain significant differences, including the public option.

    This is arguably the most likely avenue for the bill's defeat; the measure, after all, passed the House with only two extra votes, and I'd expect some liberal groups to shift their attention to the House and urge progressives to kill the bill. However, that neglects the fact that some moderate and conservative Democrats who voted against the bill the first time around will probably now vote for the compromise with the Senate, which will be significantly more moderate. It also neglects the fact that Nancy Pelosi is a significantly more skilled vote-whipper than Harry Reid. So, this is perhaps the most interesting thing to watch, but it again seems unlikely that the bill will fail to clear the hurdle.

    EDIT/UPDATE: Opposition from pro-life Democrats to the Senate bill's milder abortion language could still be a significant flashpoint.

    5) The Senate filibusters the conference report. Yes, conference reports can be filibustered, although they can't be amended, which reduces the likelihood of brinkmanship gone awry. Once the bill has been reported out of conference, you can't threaten to vote against cloture in order to extract concessions because you won't get any -- you can simply vote against cloture to kill it.

    Of course, it's that qualifier that matters -- once the bill has been reported out of conference. The fight, to the extent there is one, is liable to take place in the conference committee itself. At the end of the day, though, I figure there are probably a majority of votes in the House for the Senate bill as is -- for every liberal vote that is potentially lost, a Blue Dog vote is potentially gained. And so long as there is that daylight, the Democrats are highly likely to find it. That's not to suggest that there won't be some real issues to be hammered out, or that there isn't some chance of best-laid-plans going awry, but again this isn't a likely outcome.

    Overall, the safe and sensible assumption is that the bill is in the 80-90 percent likelihood range for moving to the President's desk and becoming law.
    FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Nelson Pledges Support For Health Care Bill, Making Passage Likely
    Last edited by Dav; 12-21-09 at 06:26 PM.

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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    How many voted needed in the senate to pass reconciled version?
    That's the rub. It will only take a bare majority. The vote last night was the whole ball of wax. We are effectively a communist state as of last night.

    Last night was to end cloture; not the actual bill. The actual reconciled bill only requires 51 votes. No way that enough Democrats will defect, although some will to help get reelected. The House will rubber stamp the Senate bill and Obama will sign his Communist Manifesto on Christmas Eve. Some Christmas gift. Enjoy! The true believers won the day. Bribe enough criminals in Congress and they can get whatever they want. The death panels will be out in full force before long. You've lived long enough; sorry you lose. Pull the plug for the good of the state.
    Last edited by Missouri Mule; 12-21-09 at 06:36 PM.
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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Missouri Mule View Post
    Yes I believe the American Supreme Soviet will rubberstamp this death panel bill. I see that the Canadian National Health Care has now decided in their infinite wisdom not to pay for non insulin diabetic testing. Welcome to Obamaworld as they reach over and pull the plug on your life support. Of course that will be after they grab what little money you have in your pocket to fund these communist schemes.

    The communists won last night. Just buy enough votes and they will win every vote. Ain't Amerika grand?
    I guess people just won't give up on that, did you know death panels was named the #1 political lie this year?

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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Missouri Mule View Post
    That's the rub. It will only take a bare majority. The vote last night was the whole ball of wax. We are effectively a communist state as of last night.

    Last night was to end cloture; not the actual bill. The actual reconciled bill only requires 51 votes. No way that enough Democrats will defect, although some will to help get reelected. The House will rubber stamp the Senate bill and Obama will sign his Communist Manifesto on Christmas Eve. Some Christmas gift. Enjoy! The true believers won the day. Bribe enough criminals in Congress and they can get whatever they want. The death panels will be out in full force before long. You've lived long enough; sorry you lose. Pull the plug for the good of the state.
    They need 60 to cloture final bill. Thats why Nelson said he reserved the right to vote against Cloture next time. And also, there is the "ping pong strategy".

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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Here is why it won't pass.

    There were 2 different versions of the bill. They both passed with no votes to spare. If the House Bill becomes too much like the senate bill, the dem caucus will split and it will fail in the house. If the senate bill becomes too much like the house bill, moderates will oppose it. This leaves a very thin needle, the likes of which there is probably no hole for. Remember, Bernie Sanders probably hopes to add the PO in the reconciled version, if not, he will keep debate open untill it does.

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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
    If the House Bill becomes too much like the senate bill, the dem caucus will split and it will fail in the house.
    Why? If the left wing of the Democratic Party in the Senate could be convinced to go with it, there is no reason to think the left wing in the House won't follow suit. Besides, the Democrats have a sizable majority in the House and therefore have some votes to spare, if absolutely necessary.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12
    Remember, Bernie Sanders probably hopes to add the PO in the reconciled version,
    He isn't an amateur; he understands that there is no realistic possibility of that happening at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12
    if not, he will keep debate open untill it does.
    And why would he do that? Are you sure you aren't engaging in some wishful thinking here?
    Last edited by Kandahar; 12-22-09 at 02:59 AM.
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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Why? If the left wing of the Democratic Party in the Senate could be convinced to go with it, there is no reason to think the left wing in the House won't follow suit. Besides, the Democrats have a sizable majority in the House and therefore have some votes to spare, if absolutely necessary.
    House Blue dog dems wouldn't go with it. The only reason they did last time was because of the abortion language. If that is stripped out, its all over.

    He isn't an amateur; he understands that there is no realistic possibility of that happening at this point.
    I thought that about Howard Dean too. However, Sanders is socialist enough TO vote against it.
    And why would he do that? Are you sure you aren't engaging in some wishful thinking here?
    No, Im looking at all sources and judging on my ability. Realistically, it could pass. But right now, they have to overcome a very possible split in the democratic caucus, PERIOD. If Howard Dead were senator, he would kill it. The House simply doesn't have the votes to spare. If one more democrat votes against it and Joseph Cao votes against, its all over in the house. What is wishful thinking, is that the dem leadership can do whatever they want now, they can't.
    Last edited by DarkWizard12; 12-22-09 at 03:06 AM.

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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
    House Blue dog dems wouldn't go with it. The only reason they did last time was because of the abortion language. If that is stripped out, its all over.
    The Senate bill is MORE conservative and offers stricter limits on abortion than does the House. It's very difficult for me to see how the final product suddenly strips away even the modest limits that were in the House bill. If anything, a merged bill should attract more conservative Democrats than the House bill did, as it will more closely reflect the more conservative Senate bill.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12
    No, Im looking at all sources and judging on my ability. Realistically, it could pass. But right now, they have to overcome a very possible split in the democratic caucus, PERIOD. If Howard Dead were senator, he would kill it.
    But Howard Dean is not a senator, and therefore has the luxury of being able to play the role of bomb-thrower. I suspect he'd tone down his language quite a bit if he were actually voting on it...but in any case, he isn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarkWizard12
    The House simply doesn't have the votes to spare. If one more democrat votes against it and Joseph Cao votes against, its all over in the house.
    There are some Democrats who didn't vote for the original House bill who might vote for a merged bill. It needs 218 votes in the House, and there are 258 Democrats.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 12-22-09 at 03:20 AM.
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    Re: The Senate & House will successfully pass a reconciled Healthcare bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Missouri Mule View Post
    Yes I believe the American Supreme Soviet will rubberstamp this death panel bill. I see that the Canadian National Health Care has now decided in their infinite wisdom not to pay for non insulin diabetic testing. Welcome to Obamaworld as they reach over and pull the plug on your life support. Of course that will be after they grab what little money you have in your pocket to fund these communist schemes.

    The communists won last night. Just buy enough votes and they will win every vote. Ain't Amerika grand?
    Is this post suppose to be serious?
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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