Your speculation is just that, speculation. You might as well claim the Cardinals would have one the SuperBowl if one of the many penalties was or wasn't called. Its absurd claiming what you do.
Funny how the US military leaders were anticipating quite the opposite, though they did hold out some hope that surrender may occur.Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts, and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey's opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and in all probability prior to 1 November 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated.
But not on terms the US demanded so your argument is moot. The conditions for surrender offered to Japan by the US were fair. Japan refused. The first bomb was dropped. They refused again. The second was dropped. They consented. The war was over. All of this occurring while the US planned for a land invasion.And so the bombs were unnecessary, as it is quite clear that Japan was willing to surrender.