View Poll Results: Which industry is collapsing next?

Voters
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  • The car industry(bleak numbers, unsold cars, lost demand)

    7 58.33%
  • The insurance industry(devestating potential losses)

    4 33.33%
  • Electronics(lost demand, potentially devestating upcoming numbers)

    2 16.67%
  • Luxury goods(the rich are loosing money the fastest)

    1 8.33%
  • The airline industry(again)

    4 33.33%
  • IT and software

    1 8.33%
  • Some other industry(specify)

    0 0%
  • other option(explain).

    1 8.33%
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Thread: Which industry is collapsing next..

  1. #1
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    Which industry is collapsing next..

    Anyone who thinks the financial crisis is over is living in a dream land, its just begun, or at least its not over by far.. Which is the next industry that will be bankrupted and have to be completely bailed out across the world, and nationalized and so fourth..

    (Thread was inspired by AIGs massive loss reported, last quarter and last year, record loss)...
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    The car industry(bleak numbers, unsold cars, lost demand)
    Nah. People will still need to have cars...at least for a couple more decades. It's likely that GM and Chrysler will go bust, but the automobile industry as a whole will rebound somewhat.

    The insurance industry(devestating potential losses)
    Yes. The insurance industry seems primed for disaster.

    Electronics(lost demand, potentially devestating upcoming numbers)
    Luxury goods(the rich are loosing money the fastest)
    Nah. These things will always be in demand. People have less discretionary income than before, but that's a temporary problem.

    The airline industry(again)
    The airline industry has already collapsed. For the past eight years, most of the airlines seem to be operating in a permanent state of bankruptcy.

    IT and software
    Not a chance.
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    I don't think the insurance industry is primed for collapse. Now depending on which part of the insurance industry, you would have an argument. With a President and Congress that is sympathetic to UHC, the health insurance industry should certainley be worried that they may get shutdown completely.

    As for Property and Casualty insurance, right now it is shifting into what they call a hard market. People are really looking to cut costs right now, and insurance companies are tightenting up their underwriting. So alot of people are going to be "shopping" their insurance around, looking for a better deal. Its going to be a good time to be an agent.

    But the insurance companies have probably taken a hit like everybody else, since they do use their premiums received in the stock market to offset claims they have to pay, and to make gains. But they have a baseline of cash that comes in no matter what, so they do have actual value and can function off of premium dollars until things right themselves.
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Nah. People will still need to have cars...at least for a couple more decades. It's likely that GM and Chrysler will go bust, but the automobile industry as a whole will rebound somewhat.
    Car sales numbers have gone down considerably in all big markets(Europe, Asia, the US).. Japanese exports have fallen 50% party because of this, the rest due to electronics. Unsold cars are parked around Europe, unused, unsold.. There was even news of a ship full of cars that just had to permanently park outside in a dock in Sweden. GM, Chrystler, Ford, all on the brink of bankruptcy, European competitors are now losing money on a big scale, Japanese cars are next. Such a decline in car sales might just be permanent, we have bought cars in the west, switching out cars every year without a need for it, that time might just be over.

    I see a lot of struggle at LEAST.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Yes. The insurance industry seems primed for disaster.
    How can they possibly avoid it? I cant see the way. When things go wrong, insurance companies are in BIG trouble, not only big, but epic.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Nah. These things will always be in demand. People have less discretionary income than before, but that's a temporary problem.
    Japanese exports fell by almost 50% from January 2008 until January 2009. Thats disastrous, its led by falling car sales and falling electronic sales, Japans two biggest industries. Not only that, but the deflation in Europe on electronics is just massive as a result of lost demand and oversupply. European manufacturing declining is mostly because of machinery, while American decline can be contributed also to electronics.

    Potential disaster. If the ball rolls, it will sure drag with it this industry as well.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    The airline industry has already collapsed. For the past eight years, most of the airlines seem to be operating in a permanent state of bankruptcy.
    Its interesting how they actually managed to survive. I read some interesting article in Forbes about companies that were predicted to last the next 100 years. Only 1 airline company was predicted to still be in existence.. Air France/KLM.
    When people cut back they easily cut back on travel, the airline industry just cannot afford that, potential disaster.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Not a chance.
    I was thinking the same when I wrote that, but... What about piracy and free open source software? Are you sure software will not become "the next wikipedia"?


    On a second note I was also thinking about the media and entertainment industry.. Can they collapse as a result of piracy and technology? Or will they always be in demand and take a slice of the money cake?

    I was also considering "nations/governments".. But that would be the last one to collapse obviously, not so unlikely anymore, that even big nations could collapse economically within 5-10 years after bailing out all industries. And then the people last of course..
    Last edited by Maximus Zeebra; 03-02-09 at 07:29 PM.
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    Car sales numbers have gone down considerably in all big markets(Europe, Asia, the US).. Japanese exports have fallen 50% party because of this, the rest due to electronics. Unsold cars are parked around Europe, unused, unsold.. There was even news of a ship full of cars that just had to permanently park outside in a dock in Sweden. GM, Chrystler, Ford, all on the brink of bankruptcy, European competitors are now losing money on a big scale, Japanese cars are next. Such a decline in car sales might just be permanent, we have bought cars in the west, switching out cars every year without a need for it, that time might just be over.

    I see a lot of struggle at LEAST.
    If the weakest players (GM and Chrysler) go bankrupt, that will provide more opportunity for growth for the stronger players (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Ford) as they compete for those customers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra
    Japanese exports fell by almost 50% from January 2008 until January 2009. Thats disastrous, its led by falling car sales and falling electronic sales, Japans two biggest industries. Not only that, but the deflation in Europe on electronics is just massive as a result of lost demand and oversupply. European manufacturing declining is mostly because of machinery, while American decline can be contributed also to electronics.

    Potential disaster. If the ball rolls, it will sure drag with it this industry as well.
    There's always a lot of deflation in electronics, even during good economic times. That's more due to constantly improving technology than any economic condition.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra
    Its interesting how they actually managed to survive. I read some interesting article in Forbes about companies that were predicted to last the next 100 years. Only 1 airline company was predicted to still be in existence.. Air France/KLM.
    I doubt that almost any companies in existence now will still be in existence in 100 years.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra
    I was thinking the same when I wrote that, but... What about piracy and free open source software? Are you sure software will not become "the next wikipedia"?
    It'll still be profitable...people will just have to be more creative as to how they make their profits. The days where you can charge people $40 for unlimited use of a computer game are coming to an end, largely because of piracy. However, I think that it will be much more common to make money in other ways: Subscription fees (WoW), advertising (Google), a cut of the profits (eBay), etc.

    And even with the rampant piracy, iTunes has shown that you can make electronic music profitable simply by providing people with convenient, legal, high-quality, virus-free downloads all in one place. I wouldn't be surprised to see the movie industry go down the same route.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra
    On a second note I was also thinking about the media and entertainment industry.. Can they collapse as a result of piracy and technology? Or will they always be in demand and take a slice of the money cake?
    They'll always be around. But they might evolve into something else. I wouldn't necessarily expect movies (as we think of them now) to be around forever.
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    If several industries collapse, the inevitable result will be a worse western economy at least, and most likely a worse global economy, which again will lead to less demand and problems for the electronic industry which is probably not prepared for bad times at all, with some exceptions. Sony and other large Japanese giants already had economic trouble in the foreseeable future, and with the financial crisis on top of that, who knows if they can manage and not need help.
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    Of all, here's one -- The paper-making industry.

    They'll be less people wasting and buying paper in the near times to come. Lol.

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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    Quote Originally Posted by George VI View Post
    Of all, here's one -- The paper-making industry.

    They'll be less people wasting and buying paper in the near times to come. Lol.
    How about the sheep sex industry?
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    Commercial real estate will probably be the next to "deflate"...
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
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    Re: Which industry is collapsing next..

    The EU.

    Economic crisis threatens the idea of one Europe - International Herald Tribune

    With uncertain leadership and few powerful collective institutions, the union is struggling with the strains this economic crisis has inevitably produced among 27 different countries with different economic histories. The traditional concept of "solidarity," of one for all, is being undermined by protectionist pressures from political leaders with national constituencies and agendas.

    It is a sharp contrast with the meltdown's effects on the U.S. government. President Barack Obama has just announced a radical budget that will send the United States more deeply into debt, but that also makes an effort to redistribute income and lay the foundations for significant changes in health care, education and the environment.

    Whether Europe can reach across constituencies to create consensus has been an open, and suddenly urgent, question.

    "The European Union will now have to prove whether it is just a fair-weather union or has a real joint political destiny," said Stefan Kornelius, the foreign news editor of Süddeutsche Zeitung in Germany. "The whole project of a joint currency is being tested for the first time. We always said you can't really have a currency union without a political union, and we don't have one. There is no joint fiscal policy, no joint tax policy, no joint policy on which industries to subsidize or not. And none of the leaders is strong enough to pull the others out of the mud."

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