It took me a long time to ask this question because the doomsayers in the recent past have mostly just been nutcases...but the US economy most likely declined by -5 or -6% per annum in Q4 of 2008, which is absolutely enormous. According to InTrade, the chance that the US economy enters a full-blown depression in 2009 is up to 51.8%, defined as four consecutive quarters of negative growth with an annual growth rate of -10% or worse. The unemployment rate is at its highest point in 26 years.
Are we heading for another depression? Do you think things will get worse before they get better?