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The Five Stages of Collapse

Will America Collapse?

  • No, we are too strong

    Votes: 9 28.1%
  • Yes, but far in the future

    Votes: 7 21.9%
  • Yes, and it will be sooner than later

    Votes: 10 31.3%
  • I don't know but I slept at a Holiday Inn last night

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • Total voters
    32

Mr. President

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The Five Stages of Collapse

by Dmitry Orlov

1.
Hello, everyone! The talk you are about to hear is the result of a lengthy process on my part. My specialty is in thinking about and, unfortunately, predicting collapse. My method is based on comparison: I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and, since I am also familiar with the details of the situation in the United States, I can make comparisons between these two failed superpowers.

I was born and grew up in Russia, and I traveled back to Russia repeatedly between the late 80s and mid-90s. This allowed me to gain a solid understanding of the dynamics of the collapse process as it unfolded there. By the mid-90s it was quite clear to me that the US was headed in the same general direction. But I couldn't yet tell how long the process would take, so I sat back and watched.

I am an engineer, and so I naturally tended to look for physical explanations for this process, as opposed to economic, political, or cultural ones. It turns out that one could come up with a very good explanation for the Soviet collapse by following energy flows. What happened in the late 80s is that Russian oil production hit an all-time peak. This coincided with new oil provinces coming on stream in the West - the North Sea in the UK and Norway, and Prudhoe Bay in Alaska - and this suddenly made oil very cheap on the world markets. Soviet revenues plummeted, but their appetite for imported goods remained unchanged, and so they sank deeper and deeper into debt. What doomed them in the end was not even so much the level of debt, but their inability to take on further debt even faster. Once international lenders balked at making further loans, it was game over.

What is happening to the United States now is broadly similar, with certain polarities reversed. The US is an oil importer, burning up 25% of the world's production, and importing over two-thirds of that. Back in mid-90s, when I first started trying to guess the timing of the US collapse, the arrival of the global peak in oil production was scheduled for around the turn of the century. It turned out that the estimate was off by almost a decade, but that is actually fairly accurate as far as such big predictions go. So here it is the high price of oil that is putting the brakes on further debt expansion. As higher oil prices trigger a recession, the economy starts shrinking, and a shrinking economy cannot sustain an ever-expanding level of debt. At some point the ability to finance oil imports will be lost, and that will be the tipping point, after which nothing will ever be the same.

This is not to say that I am a believer in some sort of energy determinism. If the US were to cut its energy consumption by an order of magnitude, it would still be consuming a staggeringly huge amount, but an energy crisis would be averted. But then this country, as we are used to thinking of it, would no longer exist. Oil is what powers this economy. In turn, it is this oil-based economy that makes it possible to maintain and expand an extravagant level of debt. So, a drastic cut in oil consumption would cause a financial collapse (as opposed to the other way around). A few more stages of collapse would follow, which we will discuss next. So, you could see this outlandish appetite for imported oil as a cultural failing, but it is not one that can be undone without causing a great deal of damage. If you like, you can call it "ontological determinism": it has to be what it is, until it is no more.

I don't mean to imply that every part of the country will suddenly undergo a spontaneous existence failure, reverting to an uninhabited wilderness. I agree with John-Michael Greer that the myth of the Apocalypse is not the least bit helpful in coming to terms with the situation. The Soviet experience is very helpful here, because it shows us not only that life goes on, but exactly how it goes on. But I am quite certain that no amount of cultural transformation will help us save various key aspects of this culture: car society, suburban living, big box stores, corporate-run government, global empire, or runaway finance.

On the other hand, I am quite convinced that nothing short of a profound cultural transformation will allow any significant number of us to keep roofs over our heads, and food on our tables. I also believe that the sooner we start letting go of our maladaptive cultural baggage, the more of a chance we will stand. A few years ago, my attitude was to just keep watching events unfold, and keep this collapse thing as some sort of macabre hobby. But the course of events is certainly speeding up, and now my feeling is that the worst we can do is pretend that everything will be fine and simply run out the clock on our current living arrangement, with nothing to replace it once it all starts shutting down.

Now, getting back to my own personal progress in working through these questions, in 2005 I wrote an article called "Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century". Initially, I wanted to publish it on a web site run by Dale Alan Pfeiffer, but, to my surprise, it ended up on From The Wilderness, a much more popular site run by Michael Ruppert, and, to my further astonishment, Mike even paid me for it.

And ever since then, I've been asked the same question, repeatedly: "When? When is the collapse going to occur?" Being a little bit clever, I always decline to give a specific answer, because, you see, as soon as you get one specific prediction wrong, there goes your entire reputation. One reasonable way of thinking about the timing is to say that collapse can occur at different times for different people. You may never quite know that collapse has happened, but you will know that it has happened to you personally, or to your family, or to your town. The big picture may not come together until much later, thanks to the efforts of historians. Individually, we may never know what hit us, and, as a group, we may never agree on any one answer. Look at the collapse of the USSR: some people are still arguing over why exactly it happened.

But sometimes the picture is clearer than we would like. In January of 2008, I published an article on "The Five Stages of Collapse," in which I defined the five stages, and then bravely stated that we are in the midst of a financial collapse. And ten months later it doesn't seem that I went too far out on a limb this time. If the US government has to lend banks over 200 billion dollars a day just to keep the whole system from imploding, then the term "crisis" probably doesn't do justice to the situation. To keep this game going, the US government has to be able to sell the debt it is taking on, and what do you think the chances are that the world at large will be snapping up trillions of dollars of new debt, knowing that it is being used to prop up a shrinking economy? And if the debt can't be sold, then it has to be monetized, by printing money. And that will trigger hyperinflation. So, let's not quibble, and let us call what's happening what it looks like: "financial collapse".

The Five Stages of Collapse | Energy Bulletin

This is a long article, but well worth reading.
 
Should America collapse...
Welcome to the New Dark Ages.
 
America won't collapse alone it'll take everybody with them. I'd suspect that we won't have what we've been having cause we've peaked, and we'll all have much more modest lives in the future.

Things are going to change in MHO, but how much depends on how we deal with our problems, and you never know we might get out smelling like a rose, but I'd say we'll definitely have to make sacrifies. Don't think the sacrifices will be willingly, but they'll be for sure.

Who knows we might all be speaking Chinese in the future.
 
Clearly there is a collapse, its ongoing, its broad and unpredictable, most people havent started noticing yet because the collapse isnt far enough in development for them to notice, when they do notice then the collapse is in the end phase.

Now we see decline in intellectualism, hyperdecline in politics and government, financial market collapse, and I think the economic collapse will soon be very broad, once the paper economy is gone there is not much left, except in this case far superior housing than soviet had, which will make the collapse less drastic, but even so change the life of everyone when they loose what they were used to.

Typical for decline is denial and a wish to get back to where you wore before, this is clearly taking place in the US now and leading to further decline. The US is in decline, collapse may come or may not, civil war could break out between central and southern US against the rest and then full fledged civil wars that could lead to the break away of states from the federation and create multiple independent nations.

Exciting subject really, my knowledge on it is quite limited but these are some of the things I find most interesting about what could potentially take place. Would anyone mind if the Northeast broke away? That California becomes a nation? That some dusin southern states create the confederation they always wanted and that the rest sporadically cooperate with each other to avoid this.



edit. i didnt read the content of the link until after my post, but it seems quite clear to me that stage 4 is what is unfolding now and that the first 3 have happened and are still happening.
 
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It is clear to me that with the election of Barack Obama, the people have spoken, and what they are saying is we want the Government to take care of us. The politicians are more than happy to accomodate them. And as the sheep are sheparded, they don't realize that the shepards are wolves.

Most Americans will be caught off guard. They will have little or no food, nothing with which to barter, and no way to defend themselves. It will be the object of Liberal derision, the people of "Red State America", who will be best able to cope. They are those who own guns, who know how to hunt, who know how to can food, who know how to use a sewing machine, who have callouses on their hands, and most importantly....faith in God.
 
It is clear to me that with the election of Barack Obama, the people have spoken, and what they are saying is we want the Government to take care of us. The politicians are more than happy to accomodate them. And as the sheep are sheparded, they don't realize that the shepards are wolves.

Most Americans will be caught off guard. They will have little or no food, nothing with which to barter, and no way to defend themselves. It will be the object of Liberal derision, the people of "Red State America", who will be best able to cope. They are those who own guns, who know how to hunt, who know how to can food, who know how to use a sewing machine, who have callouses on their hands, and most importantly....faith in God.

Ok, to me there's no real money, so everything Obama wants to do he's going to have to borrow, or tax the worker's to death. First on his agenda is the healthcare. That will be the possible last nail in our coffins, and more people will end up in coffins quicker once healthcare starts getting rationed. If things don't pick up, and I don't think they will, people will all feel they should have houses cause it's a right, so we'll all be living in one room shacks. The houses that already exist will be sold as multiple family, or persons' dwellings. It's getting harder to figure what people will come up with as rights, but I think housing will be next after the healthcare. :mrgreen:
 
It is clear to me that with the election of Barack Obama, the people have spoken, and what they are saying is we want the Government to take care of us. The politicians are more than happy to accomodate them. And as the sheep are sheparded, they don't realize that the shepards are wolves.

Most Americans will be caught off guard. They will have little or no food, nothing with which to barter, and no way to defend themselves. It will be the object of Liberal derision, the people of "Red State America", who will be best able to cope. They are those who own guns, who know how to hunt, who know how to can food, who know how to use a sewing machine, who have callouses on their hands, and most importantly....faith in God.

Exactly.. But the problem is, such knowledge is not available anymore. Todays people are enormously stupid in yesterdays world. All we know are useless things.
 
It is clear to me that with the election of Barack Obama, the people have spoken, and what they are saying is we want the Government to take care of us. The politicians are more than happy to accomodate them. And as the sheep are sheparded, they don't realize that the shepards are wolves.

Most Americans will be caught off guard. They will have little or no food, nothing with which to barter, and no way to defend themselves. It will be the object of Liberal derision, the people of "Red State America", who will be best able to cope. They are those who own guns, who know how to hunt, who know how to can food, who know how to use a sewing machine, who have callouses on their hands, and most importantly....faith in God.

When was the last time a yokel who could hunt walked to where deer were? Yeah. Ahahaha. You're a funny guy.
 
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Well, according to the latest predictions by end-of-the-world conspiracy nuts, mankind is marked for death come May of 2012 (according to the Mayan calendar).

Sounds a bit like a repeat, sort of, of Y2K. I see the coming date as a great reason to have a party...whether anything apocalyptic happens or not. :party
 
Well, according to the latest predictions by end-of-the-world conspiracy nuts, mankind is marked for death come May of 2012 (according to the Mayan calendar).

Sounds a bit like a repeat, sort of, of Y2K. I see the coming date as a great reason to have a party...whether anything apocalyptic happens or not. :party

Yeah....Y2K was pretty funny for everybody who knew all those 0s weren't going to do anything.
 
Yeah....Y2K was pretty funny for everybody who knew all those 0s weren't going to do anything.

I didn't think it was too funny.
We didn't have internet or television then; we were basically savages.
We heard rumors about infrastructure collapse and widespread rioting in the streets. We stocked up on bottled water, barricaded the door, and slept with a bunch of knives and wooden sticks to fend off potential marauders.
Fortunately, it didn't come to that.

Having the internet has really turned us into much more reasonable and civilized people. :lol:
 
Well, according to the latest predictions by end-of-the-world conspiracy nuts, mankind is marked for death come May of 2012 (according to the Mayan calendar).

Sounds a bit like a repeat, sort of, of Y2K. I see the coming date as a great reason to have a party...whether anything apocalyptic happens or not. :party

I dont think anyone actually believed the world was going under in Y2K.. Looking at the world of today there is a much greater chance of it falling apart now than the chance was in for example the 90s.
 
I voted don't know, but last night actually stayed in one of the Extended Stay facilities, and not a Holiday Inn. The Holiday Inn Express is pretty good, but I don't think the company has direct billing worked out with them. Anyway, nothing collapsed - the place seems very stable, physically.

My birthday is coming up next week. You don't think things will collapse before I get my present, do you? If you do, I want it early.
 
In a previous post, Michael Roller - Prophet of Doom, I pilloried Mr. Roller for his scare talk of economic collapse.

As a matter of policy, I never make predictions, either good or bad. The very first words in my Simplified Exposition of Axiomatic Economics are, "I have written a book entitled Axiomatic Theory of Economics. This book is about a new economic theory. It is not a simplified version of mainstream economics. It does not predict the future, calling neither prosperity or ruin in America."

The purpose of this post was not to downplay the risks we face - which are very real - but to quell the knee-jerk pessimism of people like Roller who see gloom and doom in every news article. That attitude is really not very helpful.

However, I can see that Mr. Orlov is a far more thoughtful person than Mr. Roller and I will read his articles with interest. (Also, Mr. Orlov has a background in engineering, which I, as a mathematician, can appreciate.) The concept of economic collapse should not be taboo any more than it should be the knee-jerk reaction of depressed people like Roller who are just trying to depress us all.

I will comment on Orlov's ideas later, when I have had more time to digest them. In the meantime, I would like to welcome "Mr. President" to our forum.
 
It all depends on what you mean by "collapse", I suppose. Of course America will collapse, every society eventually does. Even Rome fell apart and people thought that would last forever. There's no doubt that given enough time, America will go the way of the dodo, just like everything else.

However, I don't think that will happen in the near future. America may very well become less important in the world economy, we may lose most of our influence and economic strength (wait, we have any economic strength left?), but we'll still be here, in some form or another, for quite some time to come.
 
It all depends on what you mean by "collapse", I suppose. Of course America will collapse, every society eventually does. Even Rome fell apart and people thought that would last forever. There's no doubt that given enough time, America will go the way of the dodo, just like everything else.

However, I don't think that will happen in the near future. America may very well become less important in the world economy, we may lose most of our influence and economic strength (wait, we have any economic strength left?), but we'll still be here, in some form or another, for quite some time to come.

That's pretty much what I think, too.
 
I will comment on Orlov's ideas later, when I have had more time to digest them. In the meantime, I would like to welcome "Mr. President" to our forum.

Thanks Onion...I don't like to think I am a reactionary...and that is why when I read Mr.Orlov's article, I thought it was thoughtful and well written.
 
It all depends on what you mean by "collapse", I suppose. Of course America will collapse, every society eventually does. Even Rome fell apart and people thought that would last forever. There's no doubt that given enough time, America will go the way of the dodo, just like everything else.

However, I don't think that will happen in the near future. America may very well become less important in the world economy, we may lose most of our influence and economic strength (wait, we have any economic strength left?), but we'll still be here, in some form or another, for quite some time to come.

I agree, but there is a big difference between "The Great Depression" and any recession that followed. I think our course will take us to greater depths than the Great Depression. Will America survive? Of course...but I'm afraid it will be a shell of its former self.
 
Should America collapse...
Welcome to the New Dark Ages.

I dunno about that, they didn't have our population to feed or our weapons in the Dark Ages... I expect the fall of America would result in (while not ages) darker times than this planet has seen.

Everything that has a beginning has an end, all empires fall. But the inevitability of this should not discourage a people from trying to prevent it anyways.
 
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I agree, but there is a big difference between "The Great Depression" and any recession that followed. I think our course will take us to greater depths than the Great Depression. Will America survive? Of course...but I'm afraid it will be a shell of its former self.

We've been a shell of our former selves for a long time, we stopped actually producing anything years ago, we just consume, consume, consume. Now we're finding out that consuming without producing is a very bad idea.
 
It will be the object of Liberal derision, the people of "Red State America", who will be best able to cope. They are those who own guns, who know how to hunt, who know how to can food, who know how to use a sewing machine, who have callouses on their hands, and most importantly....faith in God.

Might be something that happens most in "Red States", on account of they're mostly rural, but the "most Americans" that are going to starve in the event of societal collapse certainly includes "most Republicans"-- especially those living in your so-called "Blue States".

Even here in Wyoming, I ain't seeing a lot of folk who hunt for their food, who know how to preserve fruits and vegetables-- much less grow them-- and know how to run a sewing machine. The kind of "live off the land" folk you're thinking about are rare as Hell, scattered throughout rural areas in "Red States" and "Blue States" alike, and don't give a damn about mainstream American politics.

Hell, only reason I'm not growing my own food is that I don't own any land, yet. Well, that and Leslie's probably not going to let me start keeping rabbits without a fight.
 
When was the last time a yokel who could hunt walked to where deer were? Yeah. Ahahaha. You're a funny guy.
-That- was me.
Never mind that what you posted here does nothing to address the validity of his statement.
 
I dunno about that, they didn't have our population to feed or our weapons in the Dark Ages... I expect the fall of America would result in (while not ages) darker times than this planet has seen.

Everything that has a beginning has an end, all empires fall. But the inevitability of this should not discourage a people from trying to prevent it anyways.

Yes but the end result of Empires falling varies widely. England survives...their "Empire" is gone. Anyone ever met a "Hittite"?
 
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Will the U.S. fail? This seems to be a question I have heard again and again. I say no. Why? Because were Americans. This is more then just some title to a people who live in an area of the world, its an ideal. It's an ideal of Freedom, equality, and an ideal of self reliance. When something is wrong we fix it, not wait on some one else to come help us, the way the rest of the world seems to look to the U.S. to help them. The U.S. will not fail because we will not let it fail. The U.S. government can be destroyed, our land can be taken away, but we will never stop being "Americans"


IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America
when in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security
 
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