The Bradley Effect

missypea · 10-09-08, 12:03 PM

The B.E. keeps popping up in threads as one of the "unknowns" that could possibly alter the election.

The Bradley Effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

What about the possibilities of the Bradley Effect working in reverse? Is it possible that racist families have members in their ranks who will never say that they're going to vote for a black man but they will then go into the booth and pull the lever for Obama?

Let's start talking.......

Kernel Sanders · 10-09-08, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by missypea

The B.E. keeps popping up in threads as one of the "unknowns" that could possibly alter the election.

The Bradley Effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

What about the possibilities of the Bradley Effect working in reverse? Is it possible that racist families have members in their ranks who will never say that they're going to vote for a black man but they will then go into the booth and pull the lever for Obama?

Let's start talking.......

I'd say the social pressures to be a racist are less widespread than the opposite. Of course there will be an affect, but it won't change anything

mikhail · 10-09-08, 12:14 PM

As i mentioned in a different I dont think its the bradley effect more the shy tory factor.Some people are embarrassed to say they are voting republican just because of the way bush etc have been lampooned in the media etc.

Apostle13 · 10-09-08, 12:24 PM

Bradley is a hard measure that can only be accurately determined in hindsight, but I do believe it will have some influence. Whether it alone is enough for McCain to win the election at the current poll levels... I doubt it. Then again some analysts are saying Obama peaked too early.

WI Crippler · 10-09-08, 12:31 PM

Should Obama lose, it will definantley be the reason that is lampooned out there by the media(unless he does something incredibly stupid in the next 3+ weeks). I almost half want Obama to win, just so I don't have to hear about what a horrible racist country we are.

In actuality, I think there will be a small, but neglible effect. If McCain sweeps 49 out of 50 states(as long as Obama doesn't do something dumb), I will retract and consider that there is still widespread racism in America. But McCain would have to landslide Obama out of nowhere, for me to consider it.

Summerwind · 10-09-08, 12:33 PM

bradley effect myth - Google Search

Apparently the Bradley Effect is considered a myth by many in the know. Here's a google search of "Bradley Effect Myth". Pick a source you like and read on.

Apostle13 · 10-09-08, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Summerwind

bradley effect myth - Google Search

Apparently the Bradley Effect is considered a myth by many in the know. Here's a google search of "Bradley Effect Myth". Pick a source you like and read on.

To say it is a myth is a liberal downplay as it is proven.

RightOfCenter · 10-09-08, 01:19 PM

It'll effect Obama, but he'll still win. Just not at the huge margin most people expect.

mikhail · 10-09-08, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WI Crippler

Should Obama lose, it will definantley be the reason that is lampooned out there by the media(unless he does something incredibly stupid in the next 3+ weeks). I almost half want Obama to win, just so I don't have to hear about what a horrible racist country we are.

In actuality, I think there will be a small, but neglible effect. If McCain sweeps 49 out of 50 states(as long as Obama doesn't do something dumb), I will retract and consider that there is still widespread racism in America. But McCain would have to landslide Obama out of nowhere, for me to consider it.

I know what you mean ive watched bill maher's show and he seems to be of the opinion that the only possible reason someone could vote for McCain is because they are racist.

WI Crippler · 10-09-08, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikhail

I know what you mean ive watched bill maher's show and he seems to be of the opinion that the only possible reason someone could vote for McCain is because they are racist.

Well Bill Maher is an idiot. He should work for MSNBC.