Kandahar

I'm just curious, because around here most McCain supporters I know seem resigned to defeat.

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RightinNYC

I think it's probably 55-45 Obama. I think the prediction markets are a bit out ahead of what will likely come to pass.

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truevaluecase.com

Never !

earthworm

If the election were to be held today..........but it is not.
John McCain and Sarah Palin have about 30 days to find some "true dirt" on Mr Obama....I'm sure they are looking, but I suspect he is "squeaky clean"..
We have more poor people than rich in this country. The Republicans are perceived as the rich man's political party...George Bush bears this out.....Golden parachutes, tax cuts for the wealthy, etc..
But, the only difference between one political party and the other is that the Republicans favor spend and tax; the Democrats...tax and spend.
I support neither...maybe I'll write in "Colin Powell"..

Frolicking Dinosaurs

I believe Obama will win - by how much depends on how egregious the attacks from McCain get. The more egregious, the bigger I believe Obama will win. People are sick to death of the lies.

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jallman

I don't think it's over until it's over. If McCain and Palin know what's good for them, they will pull out all the stops and make certain that they take every opportunity to tear Obama to shreds before November 4th and then hope the Bradley or Brady or whatever that effect is covers the gap.

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roguenuke

I support McCain, but I have no idea who will win. I think it is most definitely possible that he could win, I just think that it will be close either way it goes. Unless something comes out that greatly boosts or greatly hurts one of the candidates.

rsixing

If polling and projected electoral college votes are an indicator Obama is the clear winner.

RightinNYC

I don't understand why people get so convinced that any lead of greater than 4 or 5 points is insurmountable.

About 3 weeks ago, McCain was leading in the polls by about 2-5 points. A week ago, he was down by 6-8 points. Some people see that and think that the election is over. I see that and think that if public opinion can shift by 11 points in just 3 weeks, anything can happen over the next month.

In closing, I'll leave you with a little factual tidbit - in 2004, national polls showed GWB with an 8 point lead over Kerry just over a month before the election. In the end, the election came down to 80k people in Ohio.

missypea

Independents/moderates are not responding to the smears as the McCain campaign had hoped.

I think you're correct. The bigger the attacks, the bigger the turnoff.

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