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Polls Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?; Originally Posted by Ethereal Here's the real question. What negative effects could come about from increased exploration and exploitation? ...

Poll: Would drilling drop prices immediately?
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Would drilling drop prices immediately?

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Old 07-19-08, 12:31 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
Here's the real question. What negative effects could come about from increased exploration and exploitation? I've heard many arguments why more exploration won't alleviate oil prices (which I find to be quite dubious) but I haven't heard a reason why we shouldn't do it anyway. Even if you can make the theoretical argument that exploration won't help mitigate prices we won't know until we try, so why are there so many people in this forum who are against the furtherance of exploration and exploitation? Give me one good reason why we shouldn't do it.

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Old 07-19-08, 12:32 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

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Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
Here's the real question. What negative effects could come about from increased exploration and exploitation? I've heard many arguments why more exploration won't alleviate oil prices (which I find to be quite dubious) but I haven't heard a reason why we shouldn't do it anyway. Even if you can make the theoretical argument that exploration won't help mitigate prices we won't know until we try, so why are there so many people in this forum who are against the furtherance of exploration and exploitation? Give me one good reason why we shouldn't do it.
The type of oil that we have in the US are not in liquid form, as the type found in Saudi Arabia.

The amount of time and money spent to convert our oil, that are in shales and in sands, are not economically beneficial. One can argue that the amount of energy used to convert US oil into usable oil may not be worth the trouble, except in very extreme circumstances (such as a last resort). Essentially we're handicapped because of this. Therefore, it is more difficult for us to compete in the world market in terms of pricing.

This isn't a simple supply-demand relationship. It is a globalized market, where easily exploitable production takes the lead in competition.

As well, there is concern of the amount of pollution from mining and converting oil shale. Groundwater need to be lowered in order to mine the shale, and that affects surrounding forests as well as arable lands (for farming). Solid waste (known as Semicoke) from converting shale into crude can be toxic and also requires additional land for disposal. Also Carbon Dioxide emissions from oil shale production is higher than any other type of oil production. Lastly, and regretably, the oil shale industry is not efficient in terms of oil production.

If you're talking about off-shore drilling then that would require me to give you a different type of response.
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Old 07-19-08, 03:34 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

I think most of you know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but I'm still going to give this a shot.

IMO, like some, increased drilling for oil would not cause an immediate drop in oil prices, particularly at the pump. The long term effect may be a different story since none of this crude is discovered, drilled or processed and the estimates I have read have stated that more drilling, processing and distributing these new wells is some 7-10 years down the road. Not very immediate if you believe the current projections for such increased drilling.

What I would like to see addressed is, afaik and I am depending on unverified information, there is something like 12 million drilled and capped wells domestically, already, which are said to contain around 2 billion barrels of oil which when processed is some 2 years of consumption. Should the big 5 open these wells now and add them to our domestic oil and would that cause a drop in oil prices immediately.
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Old 07-19-08, 09:32 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

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Originally Posted by DarkWizard12 View Post
most people want oil drilling. could be a ploy really. Since bush lifted the ban and american's current attitude toward drilling right now, this could be contractors scamming for money.

Don't overestimate american's judgement. We were given Bush twice afterall.
As I understand the drop, it was due to a massive sell off of contracts, many of them from banks that had huge amounts of securitized mortgages. Essentially they sold off profitable energy contracts to raise capital to merely survive. With such a massive sell off (who can blame them given the string of banks that went under this week), prices are obviously going to drop. Coupled with a large sell off from people who believe that oil has reached its peak price, well you saw the numbers.

What will be harder to find is if financial hedging has moved to another commodity.
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Old 07-19-08, 09:36 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
Here's the real question. What negative effects could come about from increased exploration and exploitation?
Environmental damage (really that depends where we're drilling). Redirection of resources away from renewable. Redirection of attention away from raising efficiency on a variety of things from cars to fridges.

Quote:
I've heard many arguments why more exploration won't alleviate oil prices (which I find to be quite dubious) but I haven't heard a reason why we shouldn't do it anyway.
If you understand commodity markets along with basic economics of big supplier vs. small supplier, we can't do much to prices unless we nationalize (or get the dollar up).

Quote:
Even if you can make the theoretical argument that exploration won't help mitigate prices we won't know until we try, so why are there so many people in this forum who are against the furtherance of exploration and exploitation? Give me one good reason why we shouldn't do it.
There's not really a reason not to do it. It is that many of the arguments for drilling are often one sided, non-fact based, and believe that we can drill ourselves out of this problem.

Increased drilling is at very most stalling for time.
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Old 07-21-08, 02:58 AM   #26 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightdemon View Post
The type of oil that we have in the US are not in liquid form, as the type found in Saudi Arabia.

The amount of time and money spent to convert our oil, that are in shales and in sands, are not economically beneficial. One can argue that the amount of energy used to convert US oil into usable oil may not be worth the trouble, except in very extreme circumstances (such as a last resort). Essentially we're handicapped because of this. Therefore, it is more difficult for us to compete in the world market in terms of pricing.

This isn't a simple supply-demand relationship. It is a globalized market, where easily exploitable production takes the lead in competition.

As well, there is concern of the amount of pollution from mining and converting oil shale. Groundwater need to be lowered in order to mine the shale, and that affects surrounding forests as well as arable lands (for farming). Solid waste (known as Semicoke) from converting shale into crude can be toxic and also requires additional land for disposal. Also Carbon Dioxide emissions from oil shale production is higher than any other type of oil production. Lastly, and regretably, the oil shale industry is not efficient in terms of oil production.

If you're talking about off-shore drilling then that would require me to give you a different type of response.
Is that just drilling the rockies, or is the coastal drilling and also far-northern drilling? I can't find info on this havoc that comes from drilling so can you post a link or two?
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Old 07-21-08, 03:00 AM   #27 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

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Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
If you understand commodity markets along with basic economics of big supplier vs. small supplier, we can't do much to prices unless we nationalize (or get the dollar up).
I also think we need to raise the dollar before we see a real profit in our market at all. If our currency has no value how can we compete on any level?
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Old 07-21-08, 09:06 AM   #28 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

The implications of this poll are outrageously dishonest.

Aside from the instant market reaction, no, drilling would not immediately fix anything (neither would alternatives). That's why responsible leaders (conservatives) tried to get Democrats to stop insanely denying us access to American energy supplies five years ago, when doing so could have prevented all this...but Democrats insisted we ignore the looming crisis and wait for it to devastate our economy...and even raised fuel taxes.

These are the same people who thought al Qaida wasn't worth doing anything about, who told us the surge would never work, who release terrorists and pedophiles, oppose missile defense, appeased North Korea, installed Iran's lunatic fundamentalist regime, allowed identified terrorists to board planes on 9/11, and still insist on surrendering Iraq to Islamic terrorists in the middle of a global jihad against America, now that we're winning. Ever notice how liberals constantly end up on the wrong side of history, like the visionless stooges who told us the telephone would never be anything more than a kid's toy?

Democrats with America are like an abusive spouse...they have to tear down and destroy the other in order to control them. I suspect their control freak nature is at the root of their refusal to let us have our own oil, win wars, or control our borders.
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Last edited by aquapub : 07-21-08 at 09:31 AM.
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Old 07-21-08, 10:12 AM   #29 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

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Originally Posted by buttonpsi View Post
Is that just drilling the rockies, or is the coastal drilling and also far-northern drilling? I can't find info on this havoc that comes from drilling so can you post a link or two?
Yes, what I'm referring to are only consequences of drilling in and near the rockies. Particularly Utah and surrounding states.

Coastal drilling have a different set of environmental hazards. The ones that pop into my head are:

Tons of drilling liquid to keep the drill working at optimum. Depending on the type of drilling liquid, whether it is water-based or oil-based, will determine it's toxicity to aqualife.

Produced water. Which is the water that comes into contact with the drilled oil, whether it is spilled or used to help pump oil out of the wells.

In addition to the last hazard, oil spills are even more dangerous. However, natural disasters are more of a concern than accidents created by human error.

Structures and platforms that are left behind attract aqualife as "artificial reefs" if not taken apart. Dismantling a platform usually takes a significant amount of money, I'm guesstimating for about $200-300 Billion. If not taken apart, the structures may be toxic to aqualife and spread of anthropogenic hazards if aqualife remains in these structures.


So far the best sources of information that I found regarding the environmental impact are:

Environmental Impact of the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry

LUMCON - Bibliography
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Old 07-21-08, 11:30 AM   #30 (permalink)
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Re: Would more oil drilling bring an instant drop in oil prices?

LD

how many barrells were spilled last full year. Compare that to the 70's. Thanks!
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