How long will it take for DAESH to fall in Mosul

This is from the first day, as I write this we are on day three. I was waiting for someone else to put up this poll, because being a debate site with lots of people who are either smart or think that they are, surely we must.

RIGHT?

I say 3-6 months, in part because Obama can not let this fail, he has done almost nothing right in the region but his plan for Iraq security and his plan to beat back DAESH has to work, for his legacy. If Iraq cant get it done we will.

Say I.

impdaddy:


Note: I am aware that we already have over 5,000 set of boots there, I am talking about Obama adding what ever it takes to get this town.

At least two months, maybe longer.

ISIS has had control of Mosul for 2+ years and has utilized a good portion of that time to set defenses. They have already ignited oil moats they constructed around the city. This reduces ground and CAS visibility. Look for them to use citizens, prisoners, and slaves as human shields. Airport runways have been damaged to prevent use. All main roads and highways have preset kill zones. The city approaches are no doubt mined and there will be areas seeded with significant numbers of IEDs/VBEDs. I would venture that ISIS has some rudimentary drones with video capability. ISIS will also employ suicide missions.

Since ISIS has no intimate connections with the people of Mosul, they will be considered expendable as is the city infrastructure. The Iraqi/Kurdish forces will have to clear the city block by block. The battle for Mosul will be a long, bloody, and exceedingly brutal slog.

Probably in less than 2 months a military victory over ISIS in Mosul will be declared. The real question is - what "rule of law" will follow that "victory" in Mosul and its surrounding villages? The past declaration of a military victory in (all of?) Iraq (in December 2011) did not leave Iraq in what anyone (except maybe Obama) would consider to be a country under central government control.

Hawkeye10 said:

This is from the first day, as I write this we are on day three. I was waiting for someone else to put up this poll, because being a debate site with lots of people who are either smart or think that they are, surely we must.

RIGHT?

Click to expand...

I think that ISIS will give it up. Outgunned, outnumbered, surrounded, nearly indefensible so they'll booby trap, mine, and leave a small suicide army to harass the Iraqi ground troops going door to door. No Kurds will enter Mosul at Barzani's order. Turkey will be some sort of problem, not a help. The last great stand of ISIS will be in Syria where Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and the USA feed their supply lines, directly or indirectly.

Simpleχity;1066444003 said:

At least two months, maybe longer.

ISIS has had control of Mosul for 2+ years and has utilized a good portion of that time to set defenses. They have already ignited oil moats they constructed around the city. This reduces ground and CAS visibility. Look for them to use citizens, prisoners, and slaves as human shields. Airport runways have been damaged to prevent use. All main roads and highways have preset kill zones. The city approaches are no doubt mined and there will be areas seeded with significant numbers of IEDs/VBEDs. I would venture that ISIS has some rudimentary drones with video capability. ISIS will also employ suicide missions.

Since ISIS has no intimate connections with the people of Mosul, they will be considered expendable as is the city infrastructure. The Iraqi/Kurdish forces will have to clear the city block by block. The battle for Mosul will be a long, bloody, and exceedingly brutal slog.

Click to expand...

What do you make of this fear that they have chemical and might have the skills to use them, and if they did would they use them on the attacking forces or on Mosul residents?

NOTE: this is a question for anyone, I am really curious on this point.

DaveFagan said:

I think that ISIS will give it up. Outgunned, outnumbered, surrounded, nearly indefensible so they'll booby trap, mine, and leave a small suicide army to harass the Iraqi ground troops going door to door. No Kurds will enter Mosul at Barzani's order. Turkey will be some sort of problem, not a help. The last great stand of ISIS will be in Syria where Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and the USA feed their supply lines, directly or indirectly.

Click to expand...

:lamo

You've never proven even once that the US is supporting ISIS yet you come out with the same old conspiracy theories time and again.

Tigerace117 said:

:lamo

You've never proven even once that the US is supporting ISIS yet you come out with the same old conspiracy theories time and again.

Click to expand...

Check an see how the CIA's $50 million investment in Syrian rebels went. Keep in mind that the Syrian al Qeda is fighting in Aleppo and called the al Nusra Front and the USA is claiming this group to be "moderate rebels." Since they fight allied with ISIS, they get treated like ISIS because they are terrorists, not "moderate rebels." You're young, ergo you are easily snookered by the Mainstream Media propaganda stream. Find differentiated news streams from all over the World and find out what is going on.. Good luck, truly.

DaveFagan said:

Check an see how the CIA's $50 million investment in Syrian rebels went. Keep in mind that the Syrian al Qeda is fighting in Aleppo and called the al Nusra Front and the USA is claiming this group to be "moderate rebels." Since they fight allied with ISIS, they get treated like ISIS because they are terrorists, not "moderate rebels." You're young, ergo you are easily snookered by the Mainstream Media propaganda stream. Find differentiated news streams from all over the World and find out what is going on.. Good luck, truly.

Click to expand...

No, the al Nusra Front is not "allied with ISIS". The two groups despise each other. I guess you finally figured out they weren't one and the same though, so that's good. Progress.

Substituting mainstream media "propaganda" for actual propaganda from various tolitarian regimes doesn't strike me as ten best idea.

Six months? Four parsecs? Three shakes of a lamb's tail? I have no military experience so hell if I know.

Simpleχity;1066444003 said:

The Iraqi/Kurdish forces will have to clear the city block by block. The battle for Mosul will be a long, bloody, and exceedingly brutal slog.

Click to expand...

And that type of fighting will rapidly deplete their limited pool of offensively minded soldiers.

I have a feeling that a certain number of the Kurdish fighters and a lot of the Iraqi units are operating under an unwritten contract of: Away from home, we are best used for garrison / perimeter defense only. That means that we don't do a lot of offensive house to house fighting outside of our home areas".

I'll give it a month or two.

Thanks to everyone who has responded so far, hopefully we get some more. I would be thrilled if some debate got formed, but unfortunately I cant try to start it, I just dont know enough about this subject.

But I am interested!

:cowboy:

DaveFagan said:

Check an see how the CIA's $50 million investment in Syrian rebels went. Keep in mind that the Syrian al Qeda is fighting in Aleppo and called the al Nusra Front and the USA is claiming this group to be "moderate rebels." Since they fight allied with ISIS, they get treated like ISIS because they are terrorists, not "moderate rebels." You're young, ergo you are easily snookered by the Mainstream Media propaganda stream. Find differentiated news streams from all over the World and find out what is going on.. Good luck, truly.

Click to expand...

ISIS... Focus... ISIS....

Not al Qaeda. Not al Nusra...

ISIS.

If you can't figure out they are different entites you aren't paying attention.

Tigerace117 said:

:lamo You've never proven even once that the US is supporting ISIS yet you come out with the same old conspiracy theories time and again.

Click to expand...

Fagan's never used a link here except for his lame Polls.

Hawkeye10 said:

This is from the first day, as I write this we are on day three. I was waiting for someone else to put up this poll, because being a debate site with lots of people who are either smart or think that they are, surely we must.

RIGHT?

Click to expand...

Well, since I'm not in the Pentagon, moving little plastic army men around on a giant map, I will resort to the classic answer of "how the hell do I know."

Simpleχity;1066444003 said:

At least two months, maybe longer.

ISIS has had control of Mosul for 2+ years and has utilized a good portion of that time to set defenses. They have already ignited oil moats they constructed around the city. This reduces ground and CAS visibility. Look for them to use citizens, prisoners, and slaves as human shields. Airport runways have been damaged to prevent use. All main roads and highways have preset kill zones. The city approaches are no doubt mined and there will be areas seeded with significant numbers of IEDs/VBEDs. I would venture that ISIS has some rudimentary drones with video capability. ISIS will also employ suicide missions.

Since ISIS has no intimate connections with the people of Mosul, they will be considered expendable as is the city infrastructure. The Iraqi/Kurdish forces will have to clear the city block by block. The battle for Mosul will be a long, bloody, and exceedingly brutal slog.

Click to expand...

I agree, (except on the Drones) esp. last para.

Just saw a bit on FOX and ISIS is taking the offensive there....maybe I should've chosen longer.

(Keep in mind Mosul is where the Iraqi Army dropped everything and ran away when ISIS showed up 2, [or 3???] yrs. ago....simply abandoning the mass quantities of US Military Hardware we had gifted them, and ISIS commandeered it all without hesitation.)

Isis won;t be out of iraq until the beginning of 2020

Crusdr57 said:

I agree, (except on the Drones) esp. last para.

Just saw a bit on FOX and ISIS is taking the offensive there....maybe I should've chosen longer.

(Keep in mind Mosul is where the Iraqi Army dropped everything and ran away when ISIS showed up 2, [or 3???] yrs. ago....simply abandoning the mass quantities of US Military Hardware we had gifted them, and ISIS commandeered it all without hesitation.)

Click to expand...

My wife did 11 months in Mosul, says that this was a hard town to take even before DAESH did all of what ever they did to it. My main concerned is if they rigged the place with chemical weapons, as a little warning for the future.

Speculation is on the rise that DAESH has been allowed to withdraw its forces from Mosul, headed to Syria, and that they might be doing just that.

https://mosuleye.wordpress.com/

Battle For Mosul Begins in Iraq Against Islamic State - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Daesh will always be a becoming minority of their minority. It will never be exterminated, as the British proved for the rise of Al-Yad al-Khadra, 'Green Hand' in 1929. The fascism of the U.S. elections molests the prisoners like a pedophile, because the fascist machine operates via antagonism, the prisoner is coerced or forced into the quasi-disgusting position of having to extrapolate. If one takes neither the fascist nor the paranoid bait, the option is to embrace such extrapolation, thus thwarting both either-or poles.

We will assume, then, that the Clinton mafia, a militarist mafia, that is to say, ISIS, has already re-slithered the White House. The Kurds are their traditional alliy and intensified fascism will now be directed toward the inside of the American rhizome (Hillary Clinton on Pakistan: "A mortal threat from within"). Obama's father was 12.5% African negro, 87.4$ Arab (Matar, Women in Green, Jerusalem, June 2008). The Obama-Clinton resonance for ISIS is the parallel evolution of the Methodist-Wahabbist assemblage, which is also a gun-no-gun image (Ghazavat Eagles vs John Wesley holding prayer meetings in an abandoned gun factory).

We have already seen evidence of this internally-directed terror machine in North Carolina for firebombing of the GOP, and in Indiana with the North Carolina link actually stronger in the neighboring county, Randolph. During the first Obama-Clinton primaries, the North Carolina rhizome did indeed tweak at a certain point, as if a switch had been thrown. Unfortunately for most, the Clinton book-burning mafia has already erased from cyberspace the discourse the prisoners were doing then, though they used it, just as they will use subscription coercion post-book burnings, to analyze the data which will be instantly transmitted to Bluffdale for storage and processing. This serves a two-fold purpose for both capitalisms to come and for surveillances to come.

We are fortunate to have survived the experiment in fascism, and this thread will suffice for Paul Revere imitations. The word "Daesh" we compare with the word "stupid." The reason is what was discovered just this afternoon on the various atheist forums. It has to do with Obama's DNA ratio, though first we must confirm the website so that others can visit it to see what happened, at which point they will understand how the fascist machine worked....tbc

It is the Atheist Forum where one can compare the reactionary violence produced when using either the word "Daesh" or "stupid." We were quoting verbatim from Letter from Matar, Women in Green, Jerusalem, June 2008, concerning Obama's DNA ratio. In the post the word "negro" is used. The reaction to that word prompted a vicious personal attack. We doubt that the attacker was even intelligent enough to know it was a published quote available to everyone. Because no amount of education can do a thing about stupidity, we were banned for calling the attacker, you guessed it, stupid. More profoundly, this daesh-stupid assemblage was instantly in place on the internet, for when we went to register at other atheist sites, the Unfortunate One was already stigmatized and not allowed entry. This swift fascism is a harbinger for fascisms to come in screenal space. We will continue the search for less-violent situations with which to expose deep church-and-state pathologies.

Simpleχity;1066444003 said:

At least two months, maybe longer.

ISIS has had control of Mosul for 2+ years and has utilized a good portion of that time to set defenses. They have already ignited oil moats they constructed around the city. This reduces ground and CAS visibility. Look for them to use citizens, prisoners, and slaves as human shields. Airport runways have been damaged to prevent use. All main roads and highways have preset kill zones. The city approaches are no doubt mined and there will be areas seeded with significant numbers of IEDs/VBEDs. I would venture that ISIS has some rudimentary drones with video capability. ISIS will also employ suicide missions.

Since ISIS has no intimate connections with the people of Mosul, they will be considered expendable as is the city infrastructure. The Iraqi/Kurdish forces will have to clear the city block by block. The battle for Mosul will be a long, bloody, and exceedingly brutal slog.

Click to expand...

If Iraq was smart they would pound Mosul day and night with massive artillery strikes for about 6 months before rolling in. Otherwise the butchers bill is going to be a beast.

Der Speigel, too, has confirmed the long trauma. Keeping an eye on the internal American rhizome is by default (ex., Obama-Clinton ISIS at Low Gap, North Carolina for the Bataclan-Viking link to the founding of The Ukraine [or Ukraine, depending on how fascist one wants to take it). Into the fascism file will go Atheist Forum and The Thinking Atheist Forum. Attacks on the food convoys may be compared with Kenyan Mau Mau histories. Also applicable is the publication from Duke University, Food Coercion in Revolution and Civil War: Who Wins and How They Do It (www.)