• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

What happens if it's Trump, Rubio, Cruz in New Hampshire

Trump, Rubio, Cruz finish 1-2-3. Who stays, who goes?

  • Total voters
    23
Zyphlin

Zyphlin

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 21, 2005
Messages
51,710
Reaction score
35,488
Location
Washington, DC
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
We've still have a little bit till Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but looking at the RCP index as of now we see Trump on top, followed in order by Rubio, Cruz, Kaisch, Bush, and Christie. No one else is over 5%.

A lot can happen between now and then, and polls can be wrong as we saw in Iowa, but let's assume that the top three shake out like the top of the polls. Meaning Trump wins and Cruz and Rubio finish in some order of 2nd and 3rd.

What does that mean for those other three I stated; Kaisch, Jeb, and Christie?

I'm not including Carson, as I think he'll hold out until at least South Carolina. I think Fiorina is pretty close to done for as well. It's those three that I think will be most interesting to watch.

Who stays, who goes?
 
Last edited:
I suspect Kasich would suspend his campaign out of pragmatic viability considerations. Bush and Christie should, unless they're really close to Rubio and Cruz, but they probably won't. Christie might last through South Carolina, but his appeal is narrow. That New Jersey has been sliding in the fiscal area based on recent credit ratings reports really deprives Christie of growth potential.

Bush may well try to stay in the race as long as possible, as it appears that his determination to thwart Rubio has become increasingly personal in nature. It's sad to see, as such an approach will detract from what has been a very solid political career. A closing chapter of bitterness isn't exactly a good ending for the Jeb Bush narrative, but it seems that he's going down that road. I very much hope that Bush will make a dignified and graceful exit if he is defeated by a fairly large margin.
 
Bush will be the last to go (except for Trump) and then only if the people going for the drop-outs go for Trump.
 
Bush is in that unfortunate position of having the right stuff at the wrong time. Every moment he remains in the race the more failure attaches to him. Like a stone bucket.
 
Zyphlin said:
We've still have a little bit till Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but looking at the RCP index as of now we see Trump on top, followed in order by Rubio, Cruz, Kaisch, and Christie. No one else is over 5%.

A lot can happen between now and then, and polls can be wrong as we saw in Iowa, but let's assume that the top three shake out like the top of the polls. Meaning Trump wins and Cruz and Rubio finish in some order of 2nd and 3rd.

What does that mean for those other three I stated; Kaisch, Jeb, and Christie?

I'm not including Carson, as I think he'll hold out until at least South Carolina. I think Fiorina is pretty close to done for as well. It's those three that I think will be most interesting to watch.

Who stays, who goes?
Click to expand...

I still am inclined to think Kasich and Christie might stick around a little bit for a leader to start to emerge and then make a deal for a vp spot. both are governors in blue states however Christie's popularity has waned so he may not have leverage with that.
Kasich on the other hand is pretty popular in Ohio , a key state for electoral votes, and he could help deliver it. Fiorina, while its good a woman like her ran, I don't see as she has any leverage. Carson does have a lot of supporters so an endorsement for him when he does withdraw would be helpful.
 
There is no way that Bush goes after NH. He has the financial backing to stay in and I think his mentality is that after the 3 wackos beat themselves up, he will emerge as the sane alternative (I'm not saying that I agree...but I believe that is his belief).

Christie probably sticks around for a couple more primaries as he is the most moderate alternative to the others.

I think Carson, Fiorina and the other low-liers will drop out.
 
SocialD said:
I still am inclined to think Kasich and Christie might stick around a little bit for a leader to start to emerge and then make a deal for a vp spot. both are governors in blue states however Christie's popularity has waned so he may not have leverage with that.
Kasich on the other hand is pretty popular in Ohio , a key state for electoral votes, and he could help deliver it. Fiorina, while its good a woman like her ran, I don't see as she has any leverage. Carson does have a lot of supporters so an endorsement for him when he does withdraw would be helpful.
Click to expand...

This is very close to my line of thinking in regards to Kasich at least. He has already spent a large amount of time and effort trying to make himself into a viable VP selection (by emphasizing his legislative record and his connection to a very important state for the electoral college).

However, I would note that he has also spent a large amount of time and effort attacking Trump. If Trump wins New Hampshire and starts to pick up a viable amount of electoral votes, I imagine that Kasich would slip back Ohio rather than try to grovel himself to Trump out of a desperate attempt to seek out a VP nod there.
 
It's difficult to imagine that Kasich, Bush, and Christie would stay on after that --not impossible, just unlikely. That's particularly true for Jeb Bush, who's taken in more than everyone else and his donors are going to expect a return on investment. If that investment starts sinking --and it is-- I strongly suspect they'll cut their losses and move onto Rubio. And once Jeb loses daddy's big donors, he'll tuck his tail between his legs and walk away. II suspect that will happen over time for Kasich and Christie, too. Although, Christie seems to have no interest whatsoever in winning judging by how poorly he's doing.

I'm more interested in what Ben Carson does. He's certainly getting hit hard by a lack of funds, if news sources are to be believed, and if he endorses someone else, it could help lift up another campaign (Particularly if Kasich, Bush, and Christie followed suit). There's also going to be pressure from on high in the GOP to rally all Establishment support behind Rubio, particularly after New Hampshire. As I've said for months, they will muster all of their power (like the DNC is doing against Sanders) to prevent Trump (and probably Cruz) from being the nominee in 2016. So I suspect all endorsements of fallen candidates will be leveled at Rubio.

Kasich will be the VP choice though, I suspect, for whoever wins in order to try to pull in Ohio.
 
Bush goes... IF he does as he is scored in the OP, at 6th.

If he scores 4th, or bumps Cruz for 3rd, he may (<40% chance) stay in. If instead he ties Rubio he could (40-60% chance) stay in. If he beats Rubio, he does stay in.
 
FieldTheorist said:
It's difficult to imagine that Kasich, Bush, and Christie would stay on after that --not impossible, just unlikely. That's particularly true for Jeb Bush, who's taken in more than everyone else and his donors are going to expect a return on investment. If that investment starts sinking --and it is-- I strongly suspect they'll cut their losses and move onto Rubio. And once Jeb loses daddy's big donors, he'll tuck his tail between his legs and walk away. II suspect that will happen over time for Kasich and Christie, too. Although, Christie seems to have no interest whatsoever in winning judging by how poorly he's doing.

I'm more interested in what Ben Carson does. He's certainly getting hit hard by a lack of funds, if news sources are to be believed, and if he endorses someone else, it could help lift up another campaign (Particularly if Kasich, Bush, and Christie followed suit). There's also going to be pressure from on high in the GOP to rally all Establishment support behind Rubio, particularly after New Hampshire. As I've said for months, they will muster all of their power (like the DNC is doing against Sanders) to prevent Trump (and probably Cruz) from being the nominee in 2016. So I suspect all endorsements of fallen candidates will be leveled at Rubio.

Kasich will be the VP choice though, I suspect, for whoever wins in order to try to pull in Ohio.
Click to expand...

Kasich is annoying. He would have to have a strong premium of delivering Ohio over other options.
 
cpwill said:
Kasich is annoying. He would have to have a strong premium of delivering Ohio over other options.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree, but someone like Rubio wouldn't likely turn that boost down. Rubio has strong support in Florida, Kasich has... well, not strong support in Ohio, but he's governor there, anyways. If they can sure up the Republican lines on those fronts, they might actually stand a chance against Hillary if she can overtake Sanders in the DNC nomination.
 
Zyphlin said:
We've still have a little bit till Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but looking at the RCP index as of now we see Trump on top, followed in order by Rubio, Cruz, Kaisch, and Christie. No one else is over 5%.

A lot can happen between now and then, and polls can be wrong as we saw in Iowa, but let's assume that the top three shake out like the top of the polls. Meaning Trump wins and Cruz and Rubio finish in some order of 2nd and 3rd.

What does that mean for those other three I stated; Kaisch, Jeb, and Christie?

I'm not including Carson, as I think he'll hold out until at least South Carolina. I think Fiorina is pretty close to done for as well. It's those three that I think will be most interesting to watch.

Who stays, who goes?
Click to expand...

Pretty interesting that you can't even credit Jeb Bush with the accurate RCP average he has when posting a silly poll question.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Pretty interesting that you can't even credit Jeb Bush with the accurate RCP average he has when posting a silly poll question.
Click to expand...

Good point - he's in 5th place, not 6th, with an RCP average of 9%. 538 scoring, which weights in things like endorsements (where Jeb has an advantage over everyone in the field with the exception of Rubio), estimates he will somewhat outperform that, and bring in 11.4%.


As a side note, I wish RCP would be quicker to pull candidates off once they dropped out of the race, or offer that as an option.
 
Zyphlin said:
We've still have a little bit till Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but looking at the RCP index as of now we see Trump on top, followed in order by Rubio, Cruz, Kaisch, and Christie. No one else is over 5%.

A lot can happen between now and then, and polls can be wrong as we saw in Iowa, but let's assume that the top three shake out like the top of the polls. Meaning Trump wins and Cruz and Rubio finish in some order of 2nd and 3rd.

What does that mean for those other three I stated; Kaisch, Jeb, and Christie?

I'm not including Carson, as I think he'll hold out until at least South Carolina. I think Fiorina is pretty close to done for as well. It's those three that I think will be most interesting to watch.

Who stays, who goes?
Click to expand...

Bush is already done for all intents and purposes.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Pretty interesting that you can't even credit Jeb Bush with the accurate RCP average he has when posting a silly poll question.
Click to expand...

Actually I fully intended to include him, as evidenced by referring to him repeatedly, and by his placement in the actual poll having him in the proper spot (between Kasich and Christie). If my intent was to intentionally not credit Bush, I wouldn't have included him in that spot.
 
rocket88 said:
Bush is already done for all intents and purposes.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. A Rubio like surge in New Hampshire could get him a second place finish, which along with his money, could at least feasibly give him an outside shot to stick around. His time is significantly dwindling however.

I think all three of those I listed will stick it out till South Caroina, but not much past that if they finish similarly there.
 
If Christie does not exceed single digits - he should pack it in. Same for Bush.

Kasich is hanging around to keep his name out there for the VP nomination. But after Super Tuesday, I expect everyone is out but Trump and Rubio and Cruz.
 
Zyphlin said:
Actually I fully intended to include him, as evidenced by referring to him repeatedly, and by his placement in the actual poll having him in the proper spot (between Kasich and Christie). If my intent was to intentionally not credit Bush, I wouldn't have included him in that spot.
Click to expand...

Check your narration in the OP - where do you credit Bush's NH polling average as per RCP?

As for dropping out, Bush is also polling around 10% in South Carolina and is already campaigning there - GWB happens to be there too - seems like a stupid thing to do if you're planning on dropping out.
 
Zyphlin said:
We've still have a little bit till Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but looking at the RCP index as of now we see Trump on top, followed in order by Rubio, Cruz, Kaisch, Bush, and Christie. No one else is over 5%.

A lot can happen between now and then, and polls can be wrong as we saw in Iowa, but let's assume that the top three shake out like the top of the polls. Meaning Trump wins and Cruz and Rubio finish in some order of 2nd and 3rd.

What does that mean for those other three I stated; Kaisch, Jeb, and Christie?

I'm not including Carson, as I think he'll hold out until at least South Carolina. I think Fiorina is pretty close to done for as well. It's those three that I think will be most interesting to watch.

Who stays, who goes?
Click to expand...

Of those three, I chose them all staying, though some more likely than others. In order, most to least likely to drop out after NH: Kasich, Christie, Bush. Kasich I really can't get a good read on, but if he has the money, staying a little longer and hope to be a flavor of the month and ride that would help. Does he plan to run again? If so, it might help to stay and get more people to know him. Does he worry about Trump or Cruz getting the nomination and want to help stop that? Then he might drop. Christie came in 10th in Iowa(sandwiched between Huckabee and Santorum). If he is embarrassed again like that, he could very well drop, but I think he is likely to stay a little longer. He is not that old, could easily run again, so more time out there in front of voters is a plus for future ambition. Bush I think is in till at least Super Tuesday. He almost certainly cannot win, but gotta do something with all that money he raised, and maybe Rubio screws up bigtime and he picks up his supporters.
 
Zyphlin said:
Not necessarily. A Rubio like surge in New Hampshire could get him a second place finish, which along with his money, could at least feasibly give him an outside shot to stick around. His time is significantly dwindling however.

I think all three of those I listed will stick it out till South Caroina, but not much past that if they finish similarly there.
Click to expand...

I don't see Kasich or Christie realistically thinking that they are going to really rock South Carolina. Bush has infrastructure there and Nevada, so I could see him trying for it.
 
Last edited:
CanadaJohn said:
Pretty interesting that you can't even credit Jeb Bush with the accurate RCP average he has when posting a silly poll question.
Click to expand...

Good afternoon CJ. RCP averages can be deceiving at times. At this point it is important to start looking at national polling and how well funded the candidates are. The latest national polling show Trump down to a 4 point lead and Cruz and Rubio right on his tail tied at 21%, Ben Carson, who's not there, in New Hampshire is at 11% and there has been much discussion in the news that he has had to cut his staff in half due to lack of funds is currently in NC raising money. Jeb Bush, Kasich, and Rand Paul are at 5%. Rand Paul suspended his campaign yesterday. It's anyone's guess who his supporters will lean toward. Kasich last week found a chunk of needed donor cash to fight another day and Bush still a decent amount of cash to fight another round as well. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina both tied at 3%, The most vulnerable to drop out I see is Christie after NH. Christie is low on cash. But after SC there's going to be several drop out. Because if they don't have the good sense to suspend their campaigns, their donors will.
 
Last edited:
vesper said:
Good afternoon CJ. RCP averages can be deceiving at times. At this point it is important to start looking at national polling and how well funded the candidates are. The latest national polling show Trump down to a 4 point lead and Cruz and Rubio right on his tail tied at 21%, Ben Carson, who's not there, in New Hampshire is at 11% and there has been much discussion in the news that he has had to cut his staff in half due to lack of funds is currently in NC raising money. Jeb Bush, Kasich, and Rand Paul are at 5%. Rand Paul suspended his campaign yesterday. It's anyone's guess who his supporters will lean toward. Kasich last week found a chunk of needed donor cash to fight another day and Bush still a decent amount of cash to fight another day. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina both tied at 3%, The most vulnerable to drop out I see as Christie after NH. But after SC there's going to be several drop out. Because if they don't have the good sense to suspend their campaigns, their donors will.
Click to expand...

With all due respect, national polls are totally irrelevant as it relates to the primaries.
 
CanadaJohn said:
Check your narration in the OP - where do you credit Bush's NH polling average as per RCP?

As for dropping out, Bush is also polling around 10% in South Carolina and is already campaigning there - GWB happens to be there too - seems like a stupid thing to do if you're planning on dropping out.
Click to expand...

I didn't include his name, which I just admitted was an oversize and mistake, not a purposeful snub or sneaky attempt to not credit him. This is ABUNDANTLY clear to anyone who doesn't have an agenda and is looking to be pissy, since I included him in the poll above in his rightful place (under Kasich, above Christie). Same goes for in the post where I said this:

"What does that mean for the three I stated; Kasich, Bush, and Christie"

Notice again how Bush is in his rightful place, between Kasich and Christie. Also notice how I reference those I "stated", CLEARLY showing that I had intended to (and thought I had) included Bush initially.

Now would you like to actually focus more on the question at hand, or want to just continue to harp on what is obviously an unintentional and simple typing mistake?
 
I'd expect Kasich to drop out, NH is his chance to show he can be viable so a poor showing should tank him. Christie likewise, can't see where he could expect much from NV or SC.

Bush will stay til the donors bail, which they should if he flops in NH but they should have months ago anyways so..

Carson, if he can afford it, could stick through at least SC. Wouldn't think of NH being a place he'd be expected to do well and since he didn't drop after Iowa, seems odd to bail before at least SC now.
 
CanadaJohn said:
With all due respect, national polls are totally irrelevant as it relates to the primaries.
Click to expand...
Oh but national polls do matter to donors. Indeed they do.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom