Who will win the republican primary?

Looks like its a 3 man race. Please vote on who you think will win and not who you want to win.

I voted Rubio. But I hope it's Cruz.

I have been wrong through this whole thing so what do I know? I now think it will be Rubio. I think the establishment is going to bail on Jeb and other establishment candidates and put their support behind Rubio. On top of that, Rubio is the only one of the three who comes across as rational. I KNOW there are still rational Republicans out there. Right?

Rubio is also the only one of the three who is likeable. While probably not as likeable as Bernie, he is certainly more likeable than Hillary.

Iowa is a heavily evangelical state so it was to be expected that Cruz win it. But Iowa is not indicative of the country as a whole.

If republican's are as in to polls as they appear to be, as their candidate's trumpet from the podium, they MIGHT want to check out the polls regarding the end game in the general election.

Hell, even ol' Bernie polls better in the general election than Trump or Cruz. Some polls have shown as much as double digit leads!

The ONLY republican on the polls that even shows any hope of beating the democrat nominee is Marco Rubio.

But that may be too much logic and reason for today's average GOP voter to wrap their head around.

I don't know how to keep someone from shooting their own foot if they insist on doing it.

President Hillary indeed.

Go Marco.

If it's Rubio, I won't waste my gas and time voting. He's a RINO, period, and a silly little twit, to boot.

If it's Cruz or Trump, I'll vote. Either is OK, but I would prefer Trump. I'm sick to death of politicians. We need a good business head running the place.

Captain America said:

If republican's are as in to polls as they appear to be, as their candidate's trumpet from the podium, they MIGHT want to check out the polls regarding the end game in the general election.

Hell, even ol' Bernie polls better in the general election than Trump or Cruz. Some polls have shown as much as double digit leads!

The ONLY republican on the polls that even shows any hope of beating the democrat nominee is Marco Rubio.

But that may be too much logic and reason for today's average GOP voter to wrap their head around.

I don't know how to keep someone from shooting their own foot if they insist on doing it.

President Hillary indeed.

Go Marco.

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That's just not true. Even leaving aside the age of these polls and the fact that general election polling at this point is highly unreliable:

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Presidential Race

Cruz also beats Hillary. And no one beats Sanders.

Maxwell Edison said:

If it's Rubio, I won't waste my gas and time voting. He's a RINO, period, and a silly little twit, to boot.

If it's Cruz or Trump, I'll vote. Either is OK, but I would prefer Trump. I'm sick to death of politicians. We need a good business head running the place.

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You're cure to not allowing a RINO get in office is to let a Socialist or a Progressive (like there's much of a difference) get elected?

Maxwell Edison said:

If it's Rubio, I won't waste my gas and time voting. He's a RINO, period, and a silly little twit, to boot.

If it's Cruz or Trump, I'll vote. Either is OK, but I would prefer Trump. I'm sick to death of politicians. We need a good business head running the place.

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It is official: RINO means "does not agree with me on some issue".

99percenter said:

Looks like its a 3 man race. Please vote on who you think will win and not who you want to win.

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New Hampshire will be key. If one of the 3 qualified Republican candidates survives (Bush, Kasich or Christie), I see it going to the Convention and Paul Ryan winning the nomination.

If Rubio blows them out in New Hampshire, then he likely wins - but a brokered convention, and a Ryan nomination, is still possible.

Trump and Cruz have net unfavorable ratings even among Republicans. How can either of them ever win 50% of the vote at the Convention?

Rubio, hopefully and in my estimation, logically. Trump will (or may have already begun to) self implode and Cruz's base isn't diverse enough for the long haul.

Beaudreaux said:

You're cure to not allowing a RINO get in office is to let a Socialist or a Progressive (like there's much of a difference) get elected?

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I think many republicans were considering punishing the party this time around. Run a RINO and we run you out sort of thing, and I also believe this time they actually meant it. That's why the two "outsiders" are drawing so much support from the party members. If there's any hint of the outsiders being scuttled by the party, a goodly part of the base will "teach them a lesson" this election.

clownboy said:

That's just not true. Even leaving aside the age of these polls and the fact that general election polling at this point is highly unreliable:

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Presidential Race

Cruz also beats Hillary. And no one beats Sanders.

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If these polls are so unreliable, why does Trump tout them every chance he gets when comparing himself to the other GOP candidates? They seem to be reliable enough when it shows positive in his favor. But, you're right, the general is a ways out yet. But a wise person might want to keep an eye on the polls just the same. I don't expect anyone to put much stock in any poll that does not agree with their personal perspective. That's just human nature I suppose.

In the general, the RCP poll averages are as follows, (for those following along.)

Clinton vs. Trump - Clinton leads by 2.7 points
Clinton vs. Cruz - Cruz leads by 1.3 points
Clinton vs. Rubio - Rubio leads by 2.5 points.

Summary: Dump Trump. Go with Rubio. Why Rubio and not Cruz? Because Cruz will not attract enough moderates to win the general once the field clears. He is viewed as someone who will roll back the advances on liberty that have progressed in the last few years. They view him as someone who wants to turn back the clock regarding pro-choice, gay rights, lock up pot smokers and roll back those liberties on the federal level and similar issues that the majority of the public approves of that his following staunchly disapproves up. Cruz is on the wrong side of the wants and wishes of the majority of Americans. That will be his albatross.

Sanders vs. Trump = Sanders leads 5.3 points.
Sanders vs. Cruz = Sanders leads 3.3 points.
Sanders vs. Rubio = Rubio leads 1.0 points.

Summary: Polls again showing Rubio being the better candidate IMO. Just the fact that hard-left Bernie is ahead of Trump and Cruz ought to be a message to the republican voters that this "go harder right" game plan is not working for them.

Simply put, there are more democrat voters than republican voters going on past election tallies. And there are even MORE independents than there are democrats. (Unless the recent numbers have changed as they are known to do.)

I get it. Trump is a pissed off voice in the night saying what a lot of American's are feeling. Right or wrong, they feel that way. To the Donald's credit, these issues have made it the limelight.

But Trump as a serious candidate in the general, ain't never gonna happen. I would tell the Trump supporters that they have already won in getting some issues they wanted out in the open, out in the open. Take that victory and go home with it.

But when it comes time to really vote in the general. Unless you want a Hillary/Bernie you'd best vote for Rubio. He's the only one that can pull from the moderates and independents that are critical thinkers. There aren't enough mis-informed independents and moderates to elect the Donald.

You may be right American, but I'm still in the mood to punish the party leadership if an establishment republican is the candidate. If Rubio is the republican candidate he won't get my vote. And this time I won't move off that as I have in the past, even with the threat of Hillary or Sanders taking the seat. In fact at that point I'll want them to take it and I'll, for the next however many years, rub the leadership's nose in everything they do. I will blame them.

I've heard similar from every republican I know IRL.

clownboy said:

You may be right American, but I'm still in the mood to punish the party leadership if an establishment republican is the candidate. If Rubio is the republican candidate he won't get my vote. And this time I won't move off that as I have in the past, even with the threat of Hillary or Sanders taking the seat. In fact at that point I'll want them to take it and I'll, for the next however many years, rub the leadership's nose in everything they do. I will blame them.

I've heard similar from every republican I know IRL.

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I can respect that.

But, down south, we call that, "Cutting off your nose to spite your face." You would rather have Hillary Clinton in the Whitehouse than a moderate republican, or R.I.N.O., as you guys call them?

clownboy said:

I think many republicans were considering punishing the party this time around. Run a RINO and we run you out sort of thing, and I also believe this time they actually meant it. That's why the two "outsiders" are drawing so much support from the party members. If there's any hint of the outsiders being scuttled by the party, a goodly part of the base will "teach them a lesson" this election.

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I don't disagree. Trump, Cruz, and Bernie Sanders are all tapping into an across the board, across party lines, anger at the status quo. The worst thing to be called this election is an "Establishment Candidate." A great number of people feel that their voice has not been heard, and their beliefs have not been respected. That goes for the right and the left.

Captain America said:

I can respect that.

But, down south, we call that, "Cutting off your nose to spite your face." You would rather have Hillary Clinton in the Whitehouse than a moderate republican, or R.I.N.O., as you guys call them?

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Well, outside a couple exchanges on this forum I don't use RINO to describe anyone. However, yes, I was ready to do just that before Trump and Cruz took the lead. I want the party leadership gone. I believe most of the party, the voters themselves, feel the same way. If we keep voting for the candidates they push on us, they win.

clownboy said:

Well, outside a couple exchanges on this forum I don't use RINO to describe anyone. However, yes, I was ready to do just that before Trump and Cruz took the lead. I want the party leadership gone. I believe most of the party, the voters themselves, feel the same way. If we keep voting for the candidates they push on us, they win.

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I totally understand. Fight the good fight.

Maxwell Edison said:

If it's Rubio, I won't waste my gas and time voting. He's a RINO, period, and a silly little twit, to boot.

If it's Cruz or Trump, I'll vote. Either is OK, but I would prefer Trump. I'm sick to death of politicians. We need a good business head running the place.

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Explain how Trump is not a RINO

Fletch said:

Explain how Trump is not a RINO

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Trump is too self-absorbed to be anything but what he is. He would make no better a republican than he would make a democrat. I feel that Trump's decision to be one over the other was a calculated decision that he thought would render him better personal results. Party platforms, ideology, traditions, conservatism, screw all that. Trump could care less. Trump could have just as easily decided to Trump the democrat party instead. Imagine Trump running as a democrat. He would make Bernie look conservative had he chosen to play that crowd instead.

All the world is Trump's stage. We are merely peasants.

It breaks my heart to see so many otherwise good people getting played by him. I just wanna shake 'em sometimes! Wake up!

Maxwell Edison said:

If it's Rubio, I won't waste my gas and time voting. He's a RINO, period, and a silly little twit, to boot.

If it's Cruz or Trump, I'll vote. Either is OK, but I would prefer Trump. I'm sick to death of politicians. We need a good business head running the place.

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You know Trump has gone bankrupt like four times right

clownboy said:

I think many republicans were considering punishing the party this time around. Run a RINO and we run you out sort of thing, and I also believe this time they actually meant it. That's why the two "outsiders" are drawing so much support from the party members. If there's any hint of the outsiders being scuttled by the party, a goodly part of the base will "teach them a lesson" this election.

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any republican or conservative who would help Hillary get elected and appoint 2-4 new justices is really stupid