• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Will the Russians bog down in Syria?

Will the Russians bog down in Syria?

  • Total voters
    11
JANFU

JANFU

Land by the Gulf Stream
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
59,416
Reaction score
38,991
Location
Best Coast Canada
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Will the Russians bog down in Syria?
Yes- Why
No - Why
Other - please explain
Question - What do you see as the end state of the Civil War?


Syria: The story of the conflict - BBC News

Syrian Civil War | Syrian history | Britannica.com

Links to various articles –War on the rocks

https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=hwaUVeHyFeeM8Qfr8YGoAg&gws_rd=ssl#q=syria+war+on+the+rocks

Links to various articles –Foreign Policy magazine

https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei...Ag&gws_rd=ssl#q=syria+foreign+policy+magazine

Links to various articles –The Economist

https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=hwaUVeHyFeeM8Qfr8YGoAg&gws_rd=ssl#q=syria+foreign+the+economist


Various think tanks
http://www.upenn.edu/pennnews/news/...nn-s-2014-global-go-think-tank-index-rankings
 
Russia's intervention isn't committed enough for it to get bogged down in Syria; it is not sending a large ground force, like the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan, so it can choose to leave at any time. However, considering that the military of the Assad regime is almost ludicrously incompetent and demoralized, the Russians are unlikely to see much success unless they choose to invest significantly more men and resources into backing Assad. That will be much riskier, since Russian support for Putin is likely to wane once the public sees Russians dying in support of a dictatorship in a location where no critical Russian interests are at stake. The Russian government has had to blatantly lie about sending soldiers into Ukraine and about the death of the Russian soldier in Syria in order to prevent a public outcry against his military adventures.
 
MadLib said:
Russia's intervention isn't committed enough for it to get bogged down in Syria; it is not sending a large ground force, like the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan, so it can choose to leave at any time. However, considering that the military of the Assad regime is almost ludicrously incompetent and demoralized, the Russians are unlikely to see much success unless they choose to invest significantly more men and resources into backing Assad. That will be much riskier, since Russian support for Putin is likely to wane once the public sees Russians dying in support of a dictatorship in a location where no critical Russian interests are at stake. The Russian government has had to blatantly lie about sending soldiers into Ukraine and about the death of the Russian soldier in Syria in order to prevent a public outcry against his military adventures.
Click to expand...

Assad’s army is in tatters. The Alawite’s which he is, are refusing to send their sons to the Army. The air strikes have taken a toll on the rebels, yet the Iranian led, Hezbollah offensive has made little progress. The sudden arrival of TOW missiles has been instrumental in slowing and in areas halting the offensives.
That said the Russian air support is taking a heavy toll. I wonder if we will see Manpads, tightly controlled appear in the coming weeks??
They have Hinds in Syria and these are hell on wheels. Pilots are highly experienced and it is one mean piece of kit
Russians from what I understand have deployed substantial heavy artillery, and we saw the devastation in Grozny. Not saying they will go that far, as in leveling a city, but directed fire on a wide area will be devastating for rebel positions.
 
Good question...I do not know.

Though I suspect that Putin will pull out if it is clear he cannot get the result he wants.

The question is...what result does he realistically want?
 
DA60 said:
Good question...I do not know.

Though I suspect that Putin will pull out if it is clear he cannot get the result he wants.

The question is...what result does he realistically want?
Click to expand...

I do not know. Just throwing some points out
Retain the Naval base; to be seen as critical to addressing the Syrian issue. No loyalty to Assad, but to strategic returns.
Sanctions imposed after the invasion of Cimea are taking a toll on the economy. What I see from Iraq to Syria is the weakness of the Iranian Military in their fight with ISIL and the rebels in Syria.
 
Who knows what's really going on, the reports are all very confusing. Putin is always subject to misinformation in the western press.

One one hand there are reports that he is targeting the rebels and not Isis, or at least not targeting Isis very heavily.

On the other hand, the most recent reports indicate the Russian plane tragedy was caused by a bomb and Isis are claiming responsibility.

Why would Isis be bombing a Russian plane if Russia is not bombing Isis .... ?

If Putin is only going to involve himself with carpet bombing rebels, he shouldn't get bogged down. If he is really going to deal with Isis, that is different. Russia is not omnipotent, it was plenty bogged down in Afghanistan. However, Putin wasn't in charge of that fiasco and he appears to be competent. So perhaps not.

The question is what did Assad promise Putin for making these air strikes. It really must be something worthwhile. Putin knew he was putting his country at risk of retaliation and how that would affect his personal popularity. Russia has strong economic interests there or it wouldn't be there.
 
Van Basten said:
Only if it commits to a thorough intervention.
Click to expand...

Putin has a lot on this intervention. While air and land assets have increased, air and artillery, the Syrian Army is inept, worn out, decimated from defections and soldiers killed. The Iranian and Hezbollah assets have not managed to make any significant change on the ground.
Of 1 I am sure, the Russian are not concerned - at this point-in the least about civilian casualties.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/w...ngthen-putins-resolve-in-syria.html?ref=world

Although President Vladimir V. Putin and his aides at first indignantly dismissed suspicions of a terrorist act, the Kremlin has since then clearly come to grips with the idea that a bomb was probably involved in the crash: Late Friday it suspended all travel by Russians to Egypt, and initiated an emergency airlift that by Sunday had repatriated 11,000 Russians, by government count.

Should an attack be confirmed — and particularly if the Islamic State’s claim that it bombed the plane in revenge for Russia’s intervention in Syria turns out to be true — analysts and other experts expect that it will only strengthen Mr. Putin’s resolve to become more deeply involved in the Middle East.
Click to expand...

If proven, the Russians will definitely retaliate and it will be long and severe.

Russia does not F around

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Group
Six years later, in October 1985, Alpha Group was dispatched to war-torn Beirut, Lebanon. The Kremlin was informed of the kidnapping of four Soviet diplomats by the militant group, the Islamic Liberation Organization (a radical offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood). It was believed that this was retaliation for the Soviet support of Syrian involvement in the Lebanese Civil War.[19] However, by the time Alpha arrived, one of the hostages had already been killed. Through a network of supporting KGB operatives, members of the task-force identified each of the perpetrators involved in the crisis, and once identified, began to take the relatives of these militants as hostages. Following the standard Soviet policy of no negotiations with terrorists, some of the hostages taken by Alpha Group were dismembered, and their body parts sent to the militants. The warning was clear: more would follow unless the remaining hostages were released immediately.[20] The show of force worked, and for a period of 20 years no Soviet or Russian officials were taken captive, until the 2006 abduction and murder of four Russian embassy staff in Iraq. However, the veracity of this story has been brought into question. Another version says that the release of the Soviet hostages was the result of extensive diplomatic negotiations with the spiritual leader of Hezbollah, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, who appealed to King Hussein of Jordan, and the leaders of Libya and Iran, to use their influence on the kidnappers.[21]
Click to expand...
 
JANFU said:
Will the Russians bog down in Syria?
Yes- Why
No - Why
Other - please explain
Question - What do you see as the end state of the Civil War?


Syria: The story of the conflict - BBC News

Syrian Civil War | Syrian history | Britannica.com

Links to various articles –War on the rocks

https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=hwaUVeHyFeeM8Qfr8YGoAg&gws_rd=ssl#q=syria+war+on+the+rocks

Links to various articles –Foreign Policy magazine

https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei...Ag&gws_rd=ssl#q=syria+foreign+policy+magazine

Links to various articles –The Economist

https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=hwaUVeHyFeeM8Qfr8YGoAg&gws_rd=ssl#q=syria+foreign+the+economist


Various think tanks
http://www.upenn.edu/pennnews/news/...nn-s-2014-global-go-think-tank-index-rankings
Click to expand...

Hopefully they will every dead Russian soldier is a soldier not illegally occupying the Ukraine.
 
I picked other. I do not know how competent or incompetent Russia's politicians are. Nor do I know if they have vested interest in actually winning or just doing lip service. Maybe they are like our government and only pretend to be against some terrorist so that the terrorists can take out a leader.
 
I don't see why Russia should get bogged down in Syria, after all, it's trying to prop up Assad's government; Putin would like to retain a foothold in that part of the Middle East. Anyway, Putin has a powerful military with up-to-date modern artillery, and weapons and will, in time, force ISIS along with rebels against Assad out of Syria, but not out of the entire region, totally.
 
The Russians have had a navy base at Tartus, Syria since the 1970's, during the old Soviet Union days. They will prop up the client-government in Syria (for the moment, that's Asad) to insure that they will keep that important military presence, and add to it other bases, including Russian Air Force bases as well.

"Bogged down"? No. No more than we have been "bogged down" in Germany, for instance, since World War II. Russia will support the Syrian client-government, much as we always supported West Germany, and now, united Germany. There's no "bogging" to it.

The Russians will neutralize any faction that opposes them in Syria, and they will cement their alliance with Iran to control everything throughout the region, including all of Syria and Iraq. Iran will continue to develop nuclear weapons in their military sites -- which "inspectors" are expressly forbidden to visit. The Russians will hold this leverage over the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, due to the negligence and bewildering stupidity of the Obama administration. The only "bog" I see is the "bog" of opaque obliviousness that Obama is buried in, and evidently quite happy to remain so until he can finally retire....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom