View Poll Results: Regarding the unemployment information in this thread ...

Voters
26. You may not vote on this poll
  • This is good news (I lean left)

    8 30.77%
  • This is good news (I lean right)

    0 0%
  • This is good news (I'm a centrist)

    1 3.85%
  • This is bad news (I lean left)

    0 0%
  • This is bad news (I lean right)

    1 3.85%
  • This is bad news (I'm a centrist)

    0 0%
  • This is mediocre news (I lean left)

    6 23.08%
  • This is mediocre news (I lean right)

    3 11.54%
  • This is mediocre news (I'm a centrist)

    3 11.54%
  • This is something else (Post and Elaborate)

    4 15.38%
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Thread: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

  1. #21
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    The aging of our population is just magnified by the the boomers. As people live longer, the percentage of our population beyond their working years grows.
    This graph should give you a good indication how the US demographics have changed
    Calculated Risk: U.S. Population Distribution by Age, 1950 through 2050
    even before the boomers retired

    when you look at the age 25 to 55 demographic...which is a large chunk of your working aged population, labor force participation dropped 0.2% between 2002 and 2012.

    Honestly, this stuff is all on the internet and it's been talked about sooo many times.
    Yeah it's been overdiscussed. Many graphs have been shown, but yet few feel better about the economy. There's a reason for that. It's smoke, and people smell the stink. Believe what you like.
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  2. #22
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Yeah it's been overdiscussed. Many graphs have been shown, but yet few feel better about the economy. There's a reason for that. It's smoke, and people smell the stink. Believe what you like.
    consumer confidence has increased dramatically since 2009 and are nearing pre-recession levels.

    Consumer confidence improved further in June, following a modest gain in May,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Over the past two months, consumers have grown more confident about the current state of business and employment conditions. In addition, they are now more optimistic about the near-term future, although sentiment regarding income prospects is little changed. Overall, consumers are in considerably better spirits and their renewed optimism could lead to a greater willingness to spend in the near-term.”
    Another Gain in Consumer Confidence - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
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  3. #23
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by MrT View Post
    I am loathe to put much stock into Labor Force Participation because it addresses everyone not in the workforce equally without looking into their reasons.
    Exactly. If the number includes people that busted their asses and saved for their whole lives so they could retire at 60 then it's a silly number. Why on earth is it a bad thing?

    It also includes instances like stay at home parents, where one person works and their spouse stays home to care for the kids/house. That's their choice, and I don't see why we should freak out that they don't technically have a job.

  4. #24
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Good news...labor force participation has been dropping for a long time, before Obama took office. It's the aging of our population. The financial hit and sluggish economy has accelerated the trend but the labor force participation the country had when boomers where of working age and before people started living longer and going to school longer isn't going to be the norm anymore.

    Overall, we're adding jobs which is a positive.

    As for wages, job growth has to happen before wages start going up. That's to be expected
    What? Are you making the claim that the boomers started leaving the workforce "a long time before Obama took office"? The baby boom started in 1946. Those people didn't turn 65 until 2 years after Obama took office.
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  5. #25
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by SocialDemocrat View Post
    Mediocre news.

    It's good that the unemployment rate is decreasing, but there is never going to be a time when unemployment hits a certain number, and we can say "okay, that's good enough." The fact that some people are unable to find work is completely unacceptable, and serious action needs to be taken to address the problem. The idea that we should encourage businesses to hire people by cutting their taxes is incredibly naïve. There is no guarantee to ensure that the money acquired from a reduced tax rate will go towards new jobs. Employers actually need to held accountable to reducing the issue of unemployment: the workweek needs to be reduced to 35 hours with full compensation so that employers must hire more employees. The government also needs to establish public works programs that anyone off the street can work for in order to address the problem head on. The ideal unemployment rate is 0% and every able-bodied adult should have a right to a job.
    I actually agree with some of what you say here. Not all though. I disagree with the 35 hour work week idea. That won't happen.
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  6. #26
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Good news...labor force participation has been dropping for a long time, before Obama took office. It's the aging of our population. The financial hit and sluggish economy has accelerated the trend but the labor force participation the country had when boomers where of working age and before people started living longer and going to school longer isn't going to be the norm anymore.

    Overall, we're adding jobs which is a positive.

    As for wages, job growth has to happen before wages start going up. That's to be expected
    Link needed here.

    The baby boom, the largest most impactful generation in history has only started leaving the work force, and many now over 65 are staying in. I guess you haven't heard, but progressive countries are raising the age of retirement as we are now as healthy at 80 as were at 60 at the turn of the previous century. Part of the reason for job shortages is that we are staying in harness five and ten years longer.

    Please avail yourself of the latest demographics and trends and refrain from making stuff up.
    "Small people talk about people, average people talk about events, great people talk about ideas" Eleanor Roosevelt

  7. #27
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    Fair enough.

    But 're-gear' to what?

    There's little manufacturing done in the U.S. today, so that leaves providing services to each other.

    I suppose there's always room for construction workers or mechanics, though. (but construction work is very cyclical)
    I cannot count how many professional skilled people like plumbers, electricians carpenters, furnace folks and others have stated that they just cannot get good young talent to go into the profession. That is one such area.
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  8. #28
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fearandloathing View Post
    Link needed here.

    The baby boom, the largest most impactful generation in history has only started leaving the work force, and many now over 65 are staying in. I guess you haven't heard, but progressive countries are raising the age of retirement as we are now as healthy at 80 as were at 60 at the turn of the previous century. Part of the reason for job shortages is that we are staying in harness five and ten years longer.

    Please avail yourself of the latest demographics and trends and refrain from making stuff up.
    I am a boomer born in 1949. I retired from a teaching job of 33.5 years ten years ago. And I know lots of other boomers who left long before they were 65.

    I found a second career in politics for three years but am retired again now.

    Do we really want people working until age 75 or 80 and keeping younger people out of tat opportunity?
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  9. #29
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    I cannot count how many professional skilled people like plumbers, electricians carpenters, furnace folks and others have stated that they just cannot get good young talent to go into the profession. That is one such area.
    Fair enough - those are skilled services we can market to each other at a (currently) livable rate.

    As long as the skill levels in a particular specialty are high enough, there shouldn't be much downward wage pressure from unskilled citizens & immigrants as seen in some service industries - though corporations using very low-skilled labor are nipping away at some of these specialties (ex: oil change 'only' places, vs full service mechanics).

    But there's another good thing to note for some of the skillsets you mentioned: Relatively easy entry to becoming your own boss - and THAT'S something to say!
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  10. #30
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by MrT View Post
    I am loathe to put much stock into Labor Force Participation because it addresses everyone not in the workforce equally without looking into their reasons. For example, someone who has retired at the age of 60, someone who is completely discouraged from looking for a job, and someone who is a hippie with zero desire to ever work are all treated the exact same.

    Instead, if you wish to look into individuals that have dropped out of the labor force temporarily because they are discouraged, but have expressed a desire to resume looking for work in the future, I would suggest looking at the U6 unemployment rate.

    That rate dropped from 10.8% to 10.5% in the most recent jobs report.

    Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

    The only reason that I hesitated on calling this report mediocre (even though I ultimately selected positive) is because of the wage stagnation.

    I doubt I can find it, but I recently saw an article about how the 'real age of average retirement has dropped dramatically. I retired at 55, went back to work because of boredom and retired again at 63. A colleague retired at 59, and on it goes. I would also say we appear to be entering the work force later in life. I see a lot of specialty training in technology where the worker is not ready for the work for until mid to late 20's, during my father's era all but the wealthy entered the work force at 18, many at 15 and 16
    "Small people talk about people, average people talk about events, great people talk about ideas" Eleanor Roosevelt

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