View Poll Results: Regarding the unemployment information in this thread ...

Voters
26. You may not vote on this poll
  • This is good news (I lean left)

    8 30.77%
  • This is good news (I lean right)

    0 0%
  • This is good news (I'm a centrist)

    1 3.85%
  • This is bad news (I lean left)

    0 0%
  • This is bad news (I lean right)

    1 3.85%
  • This is bad news (I'm a centrist)

    0 0%
  • This is mediocre news (I lean left)

    6 23.08%
  • This is mediocre news (I lean right)

    3 11.54%
  • This is mediocre news (I'm a centrist)

    3 11.54%
  • This is something else (Post and Elaborate)

    4 15.38%
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Thread: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

  1. #11
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Yeah, but have they accounted for population increasing, not just aging? Our population is on the rise.
    We have about 4 million births and 3.5 million deaths. So that's an net population increase of 500,000 yearly. Four million more people are now voluntarily leaving the workforce annually due to boomer retirement which will continue for at least another 10 years. Yes, our total population is increasing slightly but our workforce is shrinking rapidly (and the adequately trained workforce is already too small to meet the needs of employers today).

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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    Good news...labor force participation has been dropping for a long time, before Obama took office. It's the aging of our population. The financial hit and sluggish economy has accelerated the trend but the labor force participation the country had when boomers where of working age and before people started living longer and going to school longer isn't going to be the norm anymore.

    Overall, we're adding jobs which is a positive.

    As for wages, job growth has to happen before wages start going up. That's to be expected
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

  3. #13
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    I suspect this is good news - of a kind - and probably the stuff we should get used to hearing in "good times". The problem of the next fifty years will be what to do with an economy where large numbers of people are simply not needed to work in that same economy. When we went from an agrarian economy to an industrial economy there was an increase in jobs - in the USA so much so that we had to import tens of millions of new workers to fill that need. There were no loss of jobs - but rather a gain in jobs and wages.

    Transitioning from an industry economy to a service and technological economy leaves large numbers of people behind.

    Today, we have to face reality that the guy with an IQ of 85 who got home from WW2 or Korea and got a union job in a factory and lived a solid middle class life for the next forty years is simply not going to be the scenario for people today. Today, if that same person can say welcome to walk mart or do you want fried with that order and make minimum wage for thirty hours a week -= that is the new reality for tens of millions. And you cannot live that same solid middle class life on that sort of existence.

    So get used to these monthly reports just like this one. Its only going to get worse over the next decade or two and three until we face the changing realities and adapt to them.
    Exactly!

    Most of those middle-class manufacturing jobs are never coming back - they provided the back-bone of the post war economic boom that continued (of sorts) through the decades.

    Only now unfortunately, a growing segment of our economy is 'finance', rather than manufacturing - and where finance had traditionally 'greased the wheels of capitalism' by acting as a catalyst for economic production 'adding' to the economic system, it now is often a parasitic profit center of it's own, 'removing' capital from the economic system. Paper profits redistribute capital, but do nothing to increase production!

    This was the Bain Capital/Mitt Romney business model popularized in the '80's: Break companies up, sell pieces off, ship jobs out, and scoop-up the (paper) profits while adding nothing in physicality, capital, or production. In other words, nothing real that can be 'touched' is added, but financial capital is removed.

    To see a quite different use of the financial markets, look to China, where factories & physical plants (along with an astronomically growing consumer economy) are sprouting-up overnight, turning villages into towns and towns into cities, empowering & transforming citizens who previously had little, into market-driven consumers renting apartments in new high-rises, buying condos & new cars, and driving their consumer market resultant of the dollars their manufacturing concerns are raking in from the American consumer.

    There's plenty of new things you can 'touch', there!
    Last edited by Chomsky; 07-02-15 at 10:49 AM. Reason: add last sentence
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  4. #14
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Good news...labor force participation has been dropping for a long time, before Obama took office. It's the aging of our population. The financial hit and sluggish economy has accelerated the trend but the labor force participation the country had when boomers where of working age and before people started living longer and going to school longer isn't going to be the norm anymore.

    Overall, we're adding jobs which is a positive.

    As for wages, job growth has to happen before wages start going up. That's to be expected
    Dude, get a clue. Boomers didn't officially turn 65 until 2011. So all these retirements LONG BEFORE OBAMA weren't boomers. And so plenty of boomers are still working. And with the retirement age increasing that's also affected.

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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    I agree with much that you wrote here. And having spent 33 years in education - I can tell you conclusively that we badly need to regear much of what we do particularly for the non-college bound student.
    Fair enough.

    But 're-gear' to what?

    There's little manufacturing done in the U.S. today, so that leaves providing services to each other.

    I suppose there's always room for construction workers or mechanics, though. (but construction work is very cyclical)
    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

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  6. #16
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    It is mixed news.

    It is good to see month after month of jobs growth, and it is good to see official reported unemployment continue downward.

    What is not so good is wages growth and rate has not moved, labor force participation rate at a low not seen since 1977, what is called "prime age participation rate" at 88% (on a 5 year skid,) we are on pace to add some 2.5 million jobs this year where as for 2014 we added 3.15 million jobs, and overall the 3rd and 4th income quintiles are still not recovered to 2007-2008 levels.

    Like most jobs reports over this lackluster recovery every positive aspect is in company with some very negative undertones on our economic model.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

  7. #17
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    I didn't look to see how much of this is demographic.

  8. #18
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    Exactly!

    Most of those middle-class manufacturing jobs are never coming back - they provided the back-bone of the post war economic boom that continued (of sorts) through the decades.

    Only now unfortunately, a growing segment of our economy is 'finance', rather than manufacturing - and where finance had traditionally 'greased the wheels of capitalism' by acting as a catalyst for economic production 'adding' to the economic system, it now is often a parasitic profit center of it's own, 'removing' capital from the economic system. Paper profits redistribute capital, but do nothing to increase production!

    This was the Bain Capital/Mitt Romney business model popularized in the '80's: Break companies up, sell pieces off, ship jobs out, and scoop-up the (paper) profits while adding nothing in physicality, capital, or production. In other words, nothing real that can be 'touched' is added, but financial capital is removed.

    To see a quite different use of the financial markets, look to China, where factories & physical plants (along with an astronomically growing consumer economy) are sprouting-up overnight, turning villages into towns and towns into cities, empowering & transforming citizens who previously had little, into market-driven consumers renting apartments in new high-rises, buying condos & new cars, and driving their consumer market resultant of the dollars their manufacturing concerns are raking in from the American consumer.

    There's plenty of new things you can 'touch', there!
    You cannot pay first world wages to produce third world products.

  9. #19
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Dude, get a clue. Boomers didn't officially turn 65 until 2011. So all these retirements LONG BEFORE OBAMA weren't boomers. And so plenty of boomers are still working. And with the retirement age increasing that's also affected.
    The aging of our population is just magnified by the the boomers. As people live longer, the percentage of our population beyond their working years grows.
    This graph should give you a good indication how the US demographics have changed
    Calculated Risk: U.S. Population Distribution by Age, 1950 through 2050
    even before the boomers retired

    when you look at the age 25 to 55 demographic...which is a large chunk of your working aged population, labor force participation dropped 0.2% between 2002 and 2012.

    Honestly, this stuff is all on the internet and it's been talked about sooo many times.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

  10. #20
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    Re: US Unemployment: Good news or bad news?

    Mediocre news.

    It's good that the unemployment rate is decreasing, but there is never going to be a time when unemployment hits a certain number, and we can say "okay, that's good enough." The fact that some people are unable to find work is completely unacceptable, and serious action needs to be taken to address the problem. The idea that we should encourage businesses to hire people by cutting their taxes is incredibly naïve. There is no guarantee to ensure that the money acquired from a reduced tax rate will go towards new jobs. Employers actually need to held accountable to reducing the issue of unemployment: the workweek needs to be reduced to 35 hours with full compensation so that employers must hire more employees. The government also needs to establish public works programs that anyone off the street can work for in order to address the problem head on. The ideal unemployment rate is 0% and every able-bodied adult should have a right to a job.
    Social democrat is no longer an accurate description of my views.

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