Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee?

Smeagol · Jun 4, 2015

When just 2 people are running, democracy is a pretty good way of selecting government of the people. However, when you have going on 30 candidates, the winner simply needs more votes than anyone else who actually won by having most people vote AGAINST them. In the case of the GOP presidential primary, potentially a landslide number of voters can vote against the candidate who wins. Does this concern you and if so, do you have a better idea that could get the most favored candidate selected?

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Smeagol said:
When just 2 people are running, democracy is a pretty good way of selecting government of the people. However, when you have going on 30 candidates, the winner simply needs more votes than anyone else who actually won by having most people vote AGAINST them. In the case of the GOP presidential primary, potentially a landslide number of voters can vote against the candidate who wins. Does this concern you and if so, do you have a better idea that could get the most favored candidate selected?

It does concern me. There is a possibility that Jeb wins with a small plurality, as conservatives split their votes among Walker, Rubio, and (for our more libertarian types) Paul.

WCH · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
It does concern me. There is a possibility that Jeb wins with a small plurality, as conservatives split their votes among Walker, Rubio, and (for our more libertarian types) Paul.

Yep, no matter who wins the nomination, there will be many who will feel disenfranchised.

I'm sticking with the Texas candidates just to piss off the Leftists.

radcen · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
It does concern me. There is a possibility that Jeb wins with a small plurality, as conservatives split their votes among Walker, Rubio, and (for our more libertarian types) Paul.

Some states have run-off elections if no one gets a clear majority. In your opinion, does this solve the issue, and should it be implemented in all elections?

I think it helps, though may not be perfect. Then again, there is no perfect solution. We're still limited by the natural frailties of the human species.

Reformedfindlay · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Vote for jimmy McMillan of the "RENT IS TOO DAMN HIGH!" Party.

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

radcen said:
Some states have run-off elections if no one gets a clear majority. In your opinion, does this solve the issue, and should it be implemented in all elections?

I think it helps, though may not be perfect. Then again, there is no perfect solution. We're still limited by the natural frailties of the human species.

I think that it should be a state decision - other states prefer to split their representatives, and I think that is a legitimate response as well.

tres borrachos · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Smeagol said:
When just 2 people are running, democracy is a pretty good way of selecting government of the people. However, when you have going on 30 candidates, the winner simply needs more votes than anyone else who actually won by having most people vote AGAINST them. In the case of the GOP presidential primary, potentially a landslide number of voters can vote against the candidate who wins. Does this concern you and if so, do you have a better idea that could get the most favored candidate selected?

I'm in NH and our primary field is always the most crowded it can be (obviously). I don't think it's a problem. A lot will drop out after NH and the Iowa caucuses.

AliHajiSheik · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

These are party elections, so each party can determine the method they want to use. As I understand it, each convention requires a majority of delegates to become that party's nominee. If that doesn't happen on the first ballot, then they keep going until there is one. Most delegates determined through the primary only have an "obligation" to vote for their candidate on the first ballot.

What is wrong with this process?

Kreton · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Smeagol said:
When just 2 people are running, democracy is a pretty good way of selecting government of the people. However, when you have going on 30 candidates, the winner simply needs more votes than anyone else who actually won by having most people vote AGAINST them. In the case of the GOP presidential primary, potentially a landslide number of voters can vote against the candidate who wins. Does this concern you and if so, do you have a better idea that could get the most favored candidate selected?

I dont think it wiil hurt the candidate much in the GOP. The right are going to vote for their candidate. They almost certainly aren't voting Hillary or 3rd party for fear of Hillary getting in. It may or may not hurt them with the independents in the country. The right republican nomination would appeal to the undecided crowd.

CanadaJohn · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Smeagol said:
When just 2 people are running, democracy is a pretty good way of selecting government of the people. However, when you have going on 30 candidates, the winner simply needs more votes than anyone else who actually won by having most people vote AGAINST them. In the case of the GOP presidential primary, potentially a landslide number of voters can vote against the candidate who wins. Does this concern you and if so, do you have a better idea that could get the most favored candidate selected?

In my view, the more the merrier. As you note in your poll, the cream rises to the top. Who can doubt that Romney performed best in the last GOP primary process and deserved to win the nomination. Likewise, Obama was the far superior candidate in the 2008 primaries for the Democrats, and that was a large field.

Multiple candidates from various backgrounds and policy positions also firms up the ultimate winning candidate for the type of onslaught he or she will get in the general election. The primaries can damage candidates, but only if they can't develop a response for discovered weaknesses.

And, finally, a large field says to me that a party is vibrant with a lot of talent and a lot of leadership that wants a say in the direction of the party and the country - that's good. The alternative is a Hillary type coronation where the party is resigned to the nominee and not the slightest bit enthused about it.

CanadaJohn · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
It does concern me. There is a possibility that Jeb wins with a small plurality, as conservatives split their votes among Walker, Rubio, and (for our more libertarian types) Paul.

I might grant you Walker here, not knowing all of his positions on important issues, but you'll have to fill me in on how Rubio and Paul are more conservative than Jeb Bush.

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

CanadaJohn said:
I might grant you Walker here, not knowing all of his positions on important issues, but you'll have to fill me in on how Rubio and Paul are more conservative than Jeb Bush.

Rubio is pretty much down the line conservative. The one area where people would fault him (immigration), Jeb is far worse. Paul is libertarian, but personally shallow.

The point about both was less that they were more conservative than Jeb (though I think each could make a solid and accurate argument for being so), but rather that they would take conservative voters, whereas Jeb is going to take the moderate/liberal voters.

Paschendale · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

The circus last time certainly seemed to hurt Romney. A whole lot of posters here described him as a "hold your nose" kind of candidate. A vigorous primary debate can serve to forge policy and bring a party together through compromise. Mudslinging and No True Scotsman-ing splits people apart. Maybe it's wishful thinking that the Democrats will do the former, but Republicans definitely do the latter.

Reformedfindlay · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Paschendale said:
The circus last time certainly seemed to hurt Romney. A whole lot of posters here described him as a "hold your nose" kind of candidate. A vigorous primary debate can serve to forge policy and bring a party together through compromise. Mudslinging and No True Scotsman-ing splits people apart. Maybe it's wishful thinking that the Democrats will do the former, but Republicans definitely do the latter.

Shiniest of the two turds is going to be renamed shiniest of the two parties in a couple decades.

Kobie · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Paschendale said:
The circus last time certainly seemed to hurt Romney. A whole lot of posters here described him as a "hold your nose" kind of candidate. A vigorous primary debate can serve to forge policy and bring a party together through compromise. Mudslinging and No True Scotsman-ing splits people apart. Maybe it's wishful thinking that the Democrats will do the former, but Republicans definitely do the latter.

With a bigger field, the coalition fractures. Everyone falls in love with THEIR GUY and resents the winner when THEIR GUY loses.

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Paschendale said:
The circus last time certainly seemed to hurt Romney. A whole lot of posters here described him as a "hold your nose" kind of candidate.

Sort of like how folks are looking at Hillary now, though she lacks (at this time) major serious competition. I think that might change when/if she ends up in a debate.

A vigorous primary debate can serve to forge policy and bring a party together through compromise. Mudslinging and No True Scotsman-ing splits people apart.

True enough. That's why I waver on whether or not I wish Rand Paul would just shut up and go away. He has the power to bring in new folks, but he can't stop himself from spitting at all the old ones. The other GOPers' could lead a coalition, though Jeb's or Christie's would be the hold-your-nose variety.

Maybe it's wishful thinking that the Democrats will do the former, but Republicans definitely do the latter.

:shrug: we'll see.

Kobie · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
Rubio is pretty much down the line conservative. The one area where people would fault him (immigration), Jeb is far worse. Paul is libertarian, but personally shallow.

The point about both was less that they were more conservative than Jeb (though I think each could make a solid and accurate argument for being so), but rather that they would take conservative voters, whereas Jeb is going to take the moderate/liberal voters.

Jeb might grab a few who have always known him as the "smart Bush brother," and the assumed Florida carry could win the GOP the election. But the electoral college is so stacked in the Dems' favor that Florida doesn't matter like it did.

I dunno. I do think Bush and Clinton will win their respective nominations.

But I also think Sanders-Paul would be a good referendum on the issues, rather than partisan blather and empty slogans.

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Kobie said:
With a bigger field, the coalition fractures. Everyone falls in love with THEIR GUY and resents the winner when THEIR GUY loses.

Meh - take a look at the "who is your second choice" polls coming out. Lots of conservatives are pretty happy with multiple possible candidates at this point.

Kobie · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
Meh - take a look at the "who is your second choice" polls coming out. Lots of conservatives are pretty happy with multiple possible candidates at this point.

Perhaps some might be a bit more inclined to be satisfied with no. 2 after the internecine mess of 2012 probably cost them the White House.

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Kobie said:
Jeb might grab a few who have always known him as the "smart Bush brother," and the assumed Florida carry could win the GOP the election. But the electoral college is so stacked in the Dems' favor that Florida doesn't matter like it did.

I dunno. I do think Bush and Clinton will win their respective nominations.

But I also think Sanders-Paul would be a good referendum on the issues, rather than partisan blather and empty slogans.

I would also love to have an actual debate between an actual, outspoken conservative and an actual outspoken liberal - give America a real choice between two directions, vice a choice between who can convince you that the other is meaner/dumber/etc.

But I don't think Paul is that guy. Cruz would be a better candidate if you are looking for someone of that policy proscription, but who actually has better background knowledge, and is more thought out.

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Kobie said:
Perhaps some might be a bit more inclined to be satisfied with no. 2 after the internecine mess of 2012 probably cost them the White House.

It's not impossible. But also, Republican victories in the States have given us a deeper bench. Democrats are a bit thinner, there.

Fiddytree · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

There is that risk, yes. Last go around, the base split its vote a few different ways, which parted the seas for Romney who, aside from Gingrich, was largely running unopposed in the moderate to reform conservative camp. That being said, you have much stronger candidates this time around and a feeling of inevitability which may help a more flavorful candidate emerge victorious.

I'm more interested in promoting the reformicon message. I'm more of a David Brooks style Republican, so while I have my disagreements with the existing reformicons, they have something worthwhile to me. It's to a large extent domestic policy neoconservatism 2.0. Now, ordinarily, I would support someone like Rubio, but Rubio is far too young for me. Jeb Bush, while being knocked for being more moderate (which is both true and not in this election), has the ear of reform conservatives. So too does Rubio, and Walker has occasionally shown interest as well. Panel Discussion Room Grow | Video | C-SPAN.org Future Conservatism | Video | C-SPAN.org Bush Taps Leading Reformocon as Policy Aide | National Review Online Republican Conservative

To some extent, the grouping that I have an interest in seeing succeed in conservative circles are going to have an ear in a large chunk of this primary process.

CanadaJohn · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
Rubio is pretty much down the line conservative. The one area where people would fault him (immigration), Jeb is far worse. Paul is libertarian, but personally shallow.

The point about both was less that they were more conservative than Jeb (though I think each could make a solid and accurate argument for being so), but rather that they would take conservative voters, whereas Jeb is going to take the moderate/liberal voters.

I could be wrong, and stand to be corrected, but Jeb Bush is far more in line with social conservatives in the Republican Party than either Rubio and Paul, he's just quietly so. He will be attractive to social conservatives, when the likes of Huckabee and Santorum inevitably drop out, in a way that Paul definitely and Rubio likely will not. Add to that his perception as a moderate, simply because he isn't strident, and you have the recipe for a conservative Republican President who can garner the support of the Reagan Democrats, to the extent they still exist.

Sherman123 · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

cpwill said:
It does concern me. There is a possibility that Jeb wins with a small plurality, as conservatives split their votes among Walker, Rubio, and (for our more libertarian types) Paul.

We can only hope! =D

cpwill · Jun 4, 2015

Re: Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee

Sherman123 said:
We can only hope! =D

:shrug: if you want Hillary to win in the lowest-turnout election for decades. I don't think I'm that far out on the right (though I'm fairly conservative), but I won't vote for Jeb, and I live in a swing state.

A Jeb Candidacy is a perfect opportunity for a Third Party candidate to pull a Ross Perot / Ralph Nader

Does the crowded GOP potus candidates field risk there being an unpopular nominee?

Is there a risk of the GOP selecting a less popular nominee?

Yes, so many candidates running risks dividing votes of similar candidates

No, cream rises to the top. The best candidate will win.

I'm a democrat and want the GOP to select an unpopular wild card nominee!

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