View Poll Results: Will Greece default?

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  • Yes, Greece will default on its international debt payments.

    14 60.87%
  • No, Greece will not default on its international debt payments.

    9 39.13%
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Thread: Will Greece default?

  1. #1
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    Will Greece default?

    This might not be the first time that this question is put here, but it seems to be finally coming to crunch time.

    Simple question: Will Greece default on its international debt patments or not? This is seperate from the question whether Greece will leave the Euro.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Voted no because there is no "unsure" option. 300 million Euros on June 5th seems to be the key event, but we have had other key events come and go without a default then either.

    We already know that Greece simply does not have the money to do this, but we also know they have been clever enough to negotiate their way out of (or at least real reductions in) their obligations without defaulting just yet. At this stage there seems to be strong interest from the EU and IMF to keep Greece despite German concerns.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    Voted no because there is no "unsure" option. 300 million Euros on June 5th seems to be the key event, but we have had other key events come and go without a default then either.

    We already know that Greece simply does not have the money to do this, but we also know they have been clever enough to negotiate their way out of (or at least real reductions in) their obligations without defaulting just yet. At this stage there seems to be strong interest from the EU and IMF to keep Greece despite German concerns.
    I wouldn't agree that the Greeks have been "clever", quite the contrary. The negotiations under the current government have been extremely amateurish. It is true that so far the institutions have refrained from closing off all avenues, but this has only further weakened Greece's bargaining position as the money has been steadily draining away from their banks and economy. From what I see the institutions no longer believe a sustainable deal is possible and are just waiting for the right moment to pull the plug.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    It seems an inevitability.
    “In America we have a two-party system,” a Republican congressional staffer told a visiting group of Russian legislators. “There is the stupid party. And there is the evil party. I am proud to be a member of the stupid party. Periodically, the two parties get together and do something that is both stupid and evil. This is called: bipartisanship."

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    It seems an inevitability.
    Nothing is inevitable. But I agree it does seem highly likely.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    If they are smart they will.
    'What kind of sick and twisted toy factory is this?'
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeoVlaming View Post
    I wouldn't agree that the Greeks have been "clever", quite the contrary. The negotiations under the current government have been extremely amateurish. It is true that so far the institutions have refrained from closing off all avenues, but this has only further weakened Greece's bargaining position as the money has been steadily draining away from their banks and economy. From what I see the institutions no longer believe a sustainable deal is possible and are just waiting for the right moment to pull the plug.
    Sure they have, all things considered they should have defaulted a long way back. It appears the direction this is going all comes down to the interests in keeping Greece apart of the EU, until that support changes we can expect very awkward things from the EU and IMF related to Greek debt.

    In principle I agree that there is only so much renegotiation of debt in exchange for fiscal policy that can occur, eventually Greece either has to stabilize else all there is left to see is a default.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    If they are smart they will.
    Actually, if the Greeks were Smart they would have defaulted years ago, right at the start. It would have been bad for them, but certainly not worse than it will be today. And in the meantime they could have started to rebuild their economy. Now they will default not at a time of their own choosing but at a time of their creditors' choosing.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    Sure they have, all things considered they should have defaulted a long way back. It appears the direction this is going all comes down to the interests in keeping Greece apart of the EU, until that support changes we can expect very awkward things from the EU and IMF related to Greek debt.

    In principle I agree that there is only so much renegotiation of debt in exchange for fiscal policy that can occur, eventually Greece either has to stabilize else all there is left to see is a default.
    Greece can't stabilize within the Eurozone. They should have indeed defaulted long time ago. That would have been very painful for them and for many European banks. Now the European banking system has been insulated from the Greek problem and they will be the only ones to suffer.

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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeoVlaming View Post
    Greece can't stabilize within the Eurozone. They should have indeed defaulted long time ago. That would have been very painful for them and for many European banks. Now the European banking system has been insulated from the Greek problem and they will be the only ones to suffer.
    Well, they really have no one to blame but themselves for all of this.

    To add insult to injury they elected some Socialist clown who's first order of Bussiness was to gin up some German war crime narrative.

    It was Greece's attempt to scam their way out of paying their creditors and it was a exceptionally low life thing to do.

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