Thread: Will Greece default?

Originally Posted by Anglo-scot

Excuse me, I am not sure of the exact meaning of "structural balance". Please explain. Are you disagreeing with anyone who says Greece will default or did I make a more specific point you disagree with?

Government budget balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Greek government-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It is a measure of the non-cycle related nature of whether government spending is on or off budget.

Greece has had a positive structural balance for ... like 18 months. To be fair, they are estimated to have a small structural deficit the next 2 years, status quo.

My issue is with your "structural changes" BS. They HAVE made the changes necessarily. They could not have had a structural surplus had they not.

Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra

Government budget balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
scroll up here a bit
Greek government-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It is a measure of the non-cycle related nature of whether government spending is on or off budget.

Greece has had a positive structural balance for ... like 18 months. To be fair, they are estimated to have a small structural deficit the next 2 years, status quo.

My issue is with your "structural changes" BS. They HAVE made the changes necessarily. They could not have had a structural surplus had they not.

OK I get it. Then if they have made all the structural changes they can make and they still can't pay their debts, is there any hope for them? Surely if these structural changes had been implemented correctly and were sufficient, they would not be having repayment problems? Or is it the case that the changes have worked, revenue has been saved / has increased, but the Greek govt don't want to let go of the cash?

Originally Posted by Anglo-scot

OK I get it. Then if they have made all the structural changes they can make and they still can't pay their debts, is there any hope for them? Surely if these structural changes had been implemented correctly and were sufficient, they would not be having repayment problems? Or is it the case that the changes have worked, revenue has been saved / has increased, but the Greek govt don't want to let go of the cash?

Now we're getting somewhere.

I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}

Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra

Now we're getting somewhere.

I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}

Ok. The other side of the coin would be that the IMF and ECB didn't assess the level of structural changes necessary to pay back the debts but would now find that difficult to admit. If so, Greece could exploit that mistake a little more than they are entitled to, in the light of domestic pressures.

Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra

Now we're getting somewhere.

I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}

That's just throwing good money after bad. The Greek economy has to be completely built up from scratch. Greece should default in an orderly way and leave the Euro (perhaps even the EU, but not the EEA).

Originally Posted by LeoVlaming

That's just throwing good money after bad. The Greek economy has to be completely built up from scratch. Greece should default in an orderly way and leave the Euro (perhaps even the EU, but not the EEA).

It's hard to really offer a rebuttal, when there is literally no such thing.

Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra

It's hard to really offer a rebuttal, when there is literally no such thing.

There is such a thing. But I understand you believe that it is better to decide that from now on all Eurozone agreements, and the Euro itself, basically are not worth the paper they are written on and that this would be "orderly". I beg to differ.

Originally Posted by LeoVlaming

There is such a thing. But I understand you believe that it is better to decide that from now on all Eurozone agreements, and the Euro itself, basically are not worth the paper they are written on and that this would be "orderly". I beg to differ.

Link to where I suggested such?

I'll be waiting. Meanwhile, maybe you can offer citation proof of where an "orderly default" has happened.

Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra

Link to where I suggested such?

In this thread you have argued for giving in to the bluster of the current Greek government and renegotiating their program.

Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra

I'll be waiting. Meanwhile, maybe you can offer citation proof of where an "orderly default" has happened.

Historically speaking sovereign defaults are not that rare.
Russia defaulted in the 90s and came out quite OK.