View Poll Results: Will Greece default?

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  • Yes, Greece will default on its international debt payments.

    14 60.87%
  • No, Greece will not default on its international debt payments.

    9 39.13%
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Thread: Will Greece default?

  1. #21
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by Anglo-scot View Post
    Excuse me, I am not sure of the exact meaning of "structural balance". Please explain. Are you disagreeing with anyone who says Greece will default or did I make a more specific point you disagree with?
    Government budget balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    scroll up here a bit
    Greek government-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    It is a measure of the non-cycle related nature of whether government spending is on or off budget.

    Greece has had a positive structural balance for ... like 18 months. To be fair, they are estimated to have a small structural deficit the next 2 years, status quo.

    My issue is with your "structural changes" BS. They HAVE made the changes necessarily. They could not have had a structural surplus had they not.

  2. #22
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Government budget balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    scroll up here a bit
    Greek government-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    It is a measure of the non-cycle related nature of whether government spending is on or off budget.

    Greece has had a positive structural balance for ... like 18 months. To be fair, they are estimated to have a small structural deficit the next 2 years, status quo.

    My issue is with your "structural changes" BS. They HAVE made the changes necessarily. They could not have had a structural surplus had they not.
    OK I get it. Then if they have made all the structural changes they can make and they still can't pay their debts, is there any hope for them? Surely if these structural changes had been implemented correctly and were sufficient, they would not be having repayment problems? Or is it the case that the changes have worked, revenue has been saved / has increased, but the Greek govt don't want to let go of the cash?

  3. #23
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by Anglo-scot View Post
    OK I get it. Then if they have made all the structural changes they can make and they still can't pay their debts, is there any hope for them? Surely if these structural changes had been implemented correctly and were sufficient, they would not be having repayment problems? Or is it the case that the changes have worked, revenue has been saved / has increased, but the Greek govt don't want to let go of the cash?
    Now we're getting somewhere.

    I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}

  4. #24
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Now we're getting somewhere.

    I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}
    Ok. The other side of the coin would be that the IMF and ECB didn't assess the level of structural changes necessary to pay back the debts but would now find that difficult to admit. If so, Greece could exploit that mistake a little more than they are entitled to, in the light of domestic pressures.

  5. #25
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Now we're getting somewhere.

    I would argue (admittedly, opinion), it is proof they should be allowed to renegotiate and delay the payment of their debt terms. If they are floating in a ~0 structural deficit (aka structural balance), they can--- in theory--- pay the debt off eventually {now that is a whole other can of worms if they SHOULD}
    That's just throwing good money after bad. The Greek economy has to be completely built up from scratch. Greece should default in an orderly way and leave the Euro (perhaps even the EU, but not the EEA).

  6. #26
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeoVlaming View Post
    That's just throwing good money after bad. The Greek economy has to be completely built up from scratch. Greece should default in an orderly way and leave the Euro (perhaps even the EU, but not the EEA).
    It's hard to really offer a rebuttal, when there is literally no such thing.

  7. #27
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    It's hard to really offer a rebuttal, when there is literally no such thing.
    There is such a thing. But I understand you believe that it is better to decide that from now on all Eurozone agreements, and the Euro itself, basically are not worth the paper they are written on and that this would be "orderly". I beg to differ.

  8. #28
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeoVlaming View Post
    There is such a thing. But I understand you believe that it is better to decide that from now on all Eurozone agreements, and the Euro itself, basically are not worth the paper they are written on and that this would be "orderly". I beg to differ.
    Link to where I suggested such?

    I'll be waiting. Meanwhile, maybe you can offer citation proof of where an "orderly default" has happened.

  9. #29
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Link to where I suggested such?
    In this thread you have argued for giving in to the bluster of the current Greek government and renegotiating their program.

  10. #30
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    Re: Will Greece default?

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    I'll be waiting. Meanwhile, maybe you can offer citation proof of where an "orderly default" has happened.
    Historically speaking sovereign defaults are not that rare.
    Russia defaulted in the 90s and came out quite OK.

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