View Poll Results: How will SCOTUS rule?

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  • States can ban SSM and not recognize them from other states

    2 3.33%
  • States can ban SSM but have to recognize them from other states

    8 13.33%
  • States cannot ban SSM but do not have to recognize them from other states

    1 1.67%
  • States cannot ban SSM and have to recognize them from other states

    45 75.00%
  • No ruling, lack of standing

    1 1.67%
  • Something else

    3 5.00%
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Thread: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

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    Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    So the oral arguments are tomorrow before the Supreme Court on the subject of same sex marriage. The court is looking at two primary questions, whether states can refuse to recognize same sex marriages from other states, and whether states can ban same sex marriage. Good reading on the issues at hand, pretty balanced to my mind: Same-sex marriage: The decisive questions : SCOTUSblog. So how do you think the court will end up ruling?

    1: States can ban SSM and not recognize them from other states
    2: States can ban SSM but have to recognize them from other states
    3: States cannot ban SSM but do not have to recognize them from other states
    4: States cannot ban SSM and have to recognize them from other states
    5: No ruling, lack of standing
    6: Something else

    Please be patient while I add poll options.
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    I'd wager they go with your number 2, although 4 is the only other logical option and most logical of the two. Since marriage appears to be an issue within the purview of States but the Federal government has policy and benefits tied to "sanctioned" marriage, it is likely that States will have to recognize marriages sanctioned by other states, similar to recognizing other State's drivers' licenses, etc., but it's a toss up whether they will go all the way to requiring that all States sanction SSM.

    I believe the court will be definitive this time around because the constant debate over the issue is damaging to the social fabric of the country.
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    It will pass - option 4 is how I voted.

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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Nightrider View Post
    It will pass - option 4 is how I voted.
    Not quite sure I follow. Option 4 would overturn the lower court ruling.
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    "States can ban SSM and not recognize them from other states" because that is what rightists want and the Court are stooges for the right.
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Not quite sure I follow. Option 4 would overturn the lower court ruling.
    After all this is said and done - states won't be able to ban same sex marriage (and have to recognize them from other states). I believe that's how the SCOTUS will rule.

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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Nightrider View Post
    After all this is said and done - states won't be able to ban same sex marriage (and have to recognize them from other states). I believe that's how the SCOTUS will rule.
    Thank you for the clarification.
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    I picked 4 because I don't think Chief Justice John Roberts wants the legacy of being anti-gay in his court. I see a possible 6-3 decission.


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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    So how do you think the court will end up ruling?
    It is starting to look more and more like the Supreme Court will make a decision close to option #4. I do not see how the Supreme Court can ignore the implications of relations recognized on different levels State to State, further there would be an issue of consistency if the so called "rational basis" test is the only consideration. We also have the issue of how many States where SSM bans have been overturned for one reason or another regardless of the State argument (and they have varied.) In our favor for this is at least several State's arguments for SSM bans have been boiled down to "moral hostility to homosexuality," and I expect that to come up before the Supreme Court as well.

    Because of the merit for this case it does not seem plausible to me to issue a ruling that one State can ban SSM and then also not recognize a SSM marriage from another State, but at the same time other Constitutional challenges for other subjects have lead us to that exact same scenario.

    The challenge here will be how well the argument is crafted for marriage equality with respect to taxation, benefits recognition, right of spouse, handling property, handling adopted kids, medical, etc. If that is handled well enough to show SSM ban States are actively trying to discriminate then option #4 seems the consistent remedy.

    This may actually be a 6-3 or even 7-2 ruling, but it is going to be tough and come down to the unified argument.
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Certainly states won't be able to ban SSM. That's the only rational outcome. Then the only way to get the laws to make sense is to have homosexual marriage protected the same as heterosexual, so states won't be able to pick and choose whose they recognize. What I'm interested to see if what level of constitutional scrutiny laws relating to sexual orientation will warrant.
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