View Poll Results: How will SCOTUS rule?

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  • States can ban SSM and not recognize them from other states

    2 3.33%
  • States can ban SSM but have to recognize them from other states

    8 13.33%
  • States cannot ban SSM but do not have to recognize them from other states

    1 1.67%
  • States cannot ban SSM and have to recognize them from other states

    45 75.00%
  • No ruling, lack of standing

    1 1.67%
  • Something else

    3 5.00%
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Thread: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

  1. #31
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Helvidius View Post
    Marriage is a fundamental right under the due process clause. Statutes interfering with fundamental rights require strict scrutiny review.

    How would you prove a gender was being discriminated against? The law doesn't target a single gender; it targets men and women equally. You would have to prove the law, on its face, discriminates against a particular gender or, if the law is neutral, the purpose of the law was to discriminate against a particular gender. I have never seen any law against gay marriage where this applies. Thus, I would argue the law violates due process or fails to meet rational basis review due to animus (animosity/hatred toward a particular group).
    At the state level, it's simple matter of, if one person enters the marriage license "contract" and the other person is denied the right to enter into that contract based on gender, they are being discriminated against based on gender.

    As I wrote, this is not the best argument but at least before judicial scrutiny, it has a legitimate foundation. It is similar to the way (as I mentioned) that the EEOC has managed to protect homosexuals, using gender discrimination, in legal challenges that reached the federal level in employment issues.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post

    Equal protection under the law seems the most likely and most appropriate overall tho...
    Er, so, yeah.
    Last edited by Lursa; 04-28-15 at 04:14 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Jerkoffness is protected by The Constitution. That's what makes America great.
    Quote Originally Posted by applejuicefool View Post
    A murderer putting a bullet through someone's brain is a medical procedure too.

  2. #32
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Deleted...duplicate due to server maint.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Jerkoffness is protected by The Constitution. That's what makes America great.
    Quote Originally Posted by applejuicefool View Post
    A murderer putting a bullet through someone's brain is a medical procedure too.

  3. #33
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    Sad...to hold such "principles" and (should) know that they will go down in history viewed much like anyone that still supported slavery in the modern era.
    That's an excellent point. In the end, we all know ssm being recognize is inevitable. It's becoming more obvious that a group's beliefs on the matter are largely irrelevant to whether it should be legal. I'd hate to be on the side that was holding up signs with hateful messages. I mean, in the end, historians won't see a difference between this:





    And this:





    The issue now is for the people opposed to SSM to decide how they want to be viewed. Will they continue down this path and remain the proverbial bad guys in the history of equality? Or will they simply acknowledge that gay people having their marriage sanctioned and recognized by the state changes nothing in their personal lives?
    Last edited by Hatuey; 04-28-15 at 05:37 AM.
    I refuse to accept the view that mankind is so tragically bound to the starless midnight of racism and war that the bright daybreak of peace and brotherhood can never become a reality. - MLK

  4. #34
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    >

    There is actually a 5th option.

    They could decide for and against the states and say:

    [indent][indent](a) State can ban same-sex civil marriage [SSCM] being performed in the state, and

    (b) State can choose to accept or reject civil marriage performed outside the state, however it's an all or nothing deal and can't be done selectively under equal protection. Either they recognize ALL legal civil marriage from another state or none. If a same-sex couple is married in Massachusetts then moves to Florida - Florida can reject it. If a different-sex couple is married in Massachusetts then moves to Florida - Florida would have to reject that also.[indent][indent]



    Not a very likely outcome for sure, but it would be an option.


    >>>>

  5. #35
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    SCOTUS will vote in accordance with option #4.

    They will however, use the verbiage 'Civil Union' in order to placate the bigots.
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
    The systems that ensure freedom and liberty are breaking down and fundamentalism is growing. Nobody is righteous anymore.


  6. #36
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Helvidius View Post
    This is exactly why gender discrimination does not make sense. State laws against gay marriage do not discriminate based on gender. There is no history of states preventing one gender from same-sex marriage. If state laws said lesbians could not get married, then the argument would be a good one. However, banning all gay marriages does not show an intent to discriminate against men or women differently.

    Substantive Due Process is the best argument that can be made. It will not be the only argument, but should be the main argument made in support of gay marriage.
    Loving was decided on race despite neither race being actually prevented from entering into marriage. A person of any race was prevented from entering into marriage with certain other people based solely on race. There were several reasons this was found to be unconstitutional, but the main one was equal protection based on race. The same argument can be made here in regards to sex. No single sex is prevented from entering into marriage, but a person of a certain sex is prevented from entering into marriage with certain other people based solely on sex. In both cases, it can be said that the main reason for this discrimination is animus toward the people who would want to enter into such relationships and tradition.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  7. #37
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by d0gbreath View Post
    SCOTUS will vote in accordance with option #4.

    They will however, use the verbiage 'Civil Union' in order to placate the bigots.
    They have absolutely no place in changing the "verbiage" here and Civil Unions are a different sort of legal relationship than marriage, one not part of any constitutional question they are addressing.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  8. #38
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    They have absolutely no place in changing the "verbiage" here and Civil Unions are a different sort of legal relationship than marriage, one not part of any constitutional question they are addressing.
    What if the civil unions were in fact legally identical to marriage?
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
    The systems that ensure freedom and liberty are breaking down and fundamentalism is growing. Nobody is righteous anymore.


  9. #39
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by d0gbreath View Post
    What if the civil unions were in fact legally identical to marriage?
    They're not and that would have to be a completely different case brought before the Court. The likelihood of such a case making it to the SCOTUS is actually pretty small. I can't even think of a situation where that would come up unless you had a state make all marriages "civil unions" and there was a conflict with another state recognizing them as marriages.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  10. #40
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by d0gbreath View Post
    What if the civil unions were in fact legally identical to marriage?

    Then that would be Civil Marriage as already exists.

    If no Civil Unions have been "legally identical" to Civil Marriage as many rights, responsibilities and benefits of Civil Marriage are only available in that context and are not available to Civil Unions.


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